Tuesday, October 30, 2007
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How Important is Frontrunner Status?
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
10:54 AM
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Katharine Seelye makes a good point that in non-incumbent years, Democrats often do not nominate the frontrunner ...
Starting in 1952, the Democrats have contested the presidency 11 times (not counting 1964, 1980 and 1996 when they nominated incumbents). Of those 11 times, only five of the candidates who were leading in national polls in January won the nomination: Adlai E. Stevenson in 1956, John F. Kennedy in 1960, Walter F. Mondale in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1992 and Al Gore in 2000. The so-called front-runners who did not win the nomination included Estes Kefauver in 1952 (Stevenson won the nomination), Lyndon B. Johnson, who shared the lead with Robert F. Kennedy in 1968 (Hubert H. Humphrey was nominated after Johnson dropped out and Kennedy was assassinated), Edmund S. Muskie in 1972 (overtaken by George S. McGovern), Edward M. Kennedy in 1976 (Jimmy Carter pulled ahead), Jesse Jackson and Gary Hart in 1988 (Michael J. Dukakis took over) and Howard Dean in 2004 (lost to John Kerry).
Of course, this is in stark contrast to Republicans who, as it's been said, like to run elections the way a Rotary Club does (with the nominee decided years in advance) ...
So should Hillary be worried?
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I don't think you can say based on this (study? anecdote? triviality?) she should be worried. You have to throw out '68 since HHH didn't exactly come from behind, the 'front runners' were removed. It is basically a 50-50 shot, so why worry? Two, I think some of the Dem 'field' are just in it as placeholders for her. Durbin, Richardson, and Biden are there to raise money for her, and secure cabinet positions. Obama and Edwards may not be part of the team, but they aren't exactly threats she can't muscle out. Obama may be able to pull the upset, but it would take a lot of motivated 20 somethings. |
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The line in the sand has been drawn in the sand over here.New Gallop poll states 2/3 of voters do not know that Rudy is : proabortion, progay , antigun, antifamily, and he is on the other side of the fence. New Iowa poll shows Romney with 36 point lead. Today the POPE of N.H.GOP party endorsed Mitt Romney .Only Ann Romney can whip Hillary's *#*. A vote for Rudy is a vote for Hillary .If you are a neocoM collectivist, Ann Romney will make the best .......FIRST LADY . |
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But, does this mean Mitt is DOA? He is no front-runner nationally, and as you point out, Repubs like the Rotary CLub model...
The answer of course is no. This is the problem with punditry. We look at the past and use it to predict the future, when the actual number of samples is quite small, and when history quite regularly throws curves. I never thought I'd see a Presidential election result ride on the Supreme Court, or for that matter the Sox win the Series (twice!) |
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She should be VERY worried. Hillary's problem is simple, nobody really likes her. The Democrats are so desperate to win this year, the first sign of weakness she is toast. If Obama wins Iowa, she is done. If Obama places a close second, she would still be in trouble. With name recognition of 100% and not getting more that 50% of the vote versus any Republican should be a worrisome sign for the Democrats. |
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