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Tuesday, May 01, 2007

McCain Gaining on Rudy (Cuts Lead in Half)

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 9:11 AM

This new Cook Poll shows Rudy is leading McCain by 7 points. While 7 points is still significant, just one month ago, Rudy was up by 17 points. McCain appears to be showing a significant upward trend.

According to pollster.com:

That result represents a drop in Guiliani's lead over McCain from 17 points (34% to 17%) a month ago (among 290 Republicans), a decline that looks right on the edge of statistical significance given the relatively small sample sizes.

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Vote for Pedro writes:	Tuesday, May, 01, 2007 4:50 PM
Not so Fast
I don't mean to rain on your parade, but the recent Cook poll leaned democrat and has a somewhat small sample size (N=807)for a national poll. And like an above commentor, I would agree that Cook is not a polling company that I put a lot of faith in.
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one hot minute writes:	Tuesday, May, 01, 2007 2:10 PM
Matt Lewis shakes pom-poms for McCain
It's funny how Matt Lewis isn't very interested in reporting the polling data for ALL of the GOP candidates, rather, his focus is in reporting how he believes the data demonstrates that his favored candidate John McCain is catching up to the front-runner. But I'm not sure that one poll of 290 people is enough to substantiate Matt's characterization that this is a "signifigant upward trend." By definition, a 'trend' should refer to more than one poll. Keep shaking those pom-poms for John McCain, Matt.
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smith writes:	Tuesday, May, 01, 2007 10:41 AM
don't count mccain out
although I don't like or trust mccain, I don't think that he can ever be dismissed. His supporters are his supporters to stay until the end. His support won't erode below a certain level. Can he win the nomination? I don't think so, but he will always in the race, in my opinion.
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unclemonkey writes:	Tuesday, May, 01, 2007 10:33 AM
Wishful thinking?
Considering that (A) I've never even heard of the Cook poll, (B) The proven (semi)reliable Rasmussen poll shows Rudy's lead over McCain holding steady(actually a slight increase), and (C) that a quick reading of the numbers suggests that Fred Thompson taken away most of the points that Rudy has lost, it's clear that John McCain has gained no ground whatsoever, which is not at all surprising. I'll say again, and I'll probably say it a half a million times until he drops out, John Mccain has exactly 0 chance of winning the republican nomination. A very safe prediction, the day after Fred Thompson makes it official, McCain drops to number 3 and stays there (unless of course Romney can gain a little ground and overtake him as well).
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