Thursday, October 02, 2008
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McCain Pulls Out of Michigan
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
4:53 PM
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Just a couple of weeks ago, Michigan was looking somewhat competitive. As you may recall, I intereviewed John Dunagan, who served as state director for Bush-Cheney '04, about McCain's chances in the state. At the time, the analysis was that it would be very difficult, but that Palin would definitely be helpful to McCain in the state.
Today, after weeks of bad economic news -- and with McCain falling in the polls -- Jonathan Martin and Chris Cillizza report that McCain has pulled out of Michigan.
I caught up with Dunagan to get his take on this development. Here's what he told me ...
Much like its beloved football team in Ann Arbor, Michigan is decidedly blue:
1. A GOP Presidential candidate has not won MI since GHWB’s landslide in 1988 and relative to the rest of the country, President GHW Bush and Senator Dole under-performed in MI in those 3 way contests with Clinton and Perot in 1992 and 1996, respectively.
2. In 2006, despite Michigan’s terrible economy and being significantly out-spent, Governor Jennifer Granholm easily defeated self-made businessman Dick DeVos by 14% points (56-42).
Also, in 2006, Senator Debbie Stabenow defeated a very solid candidate, Oakland County Sherriff Mike Bouchard, by an even wider margin – 16% points (57-41). Hardly close contests in a “competitive” or “swing” state.
3. A Republican candidate has not won a competitive top of the ticket statewide election (President, US Senator or Governor) in Michigan since the 1990 victory by John Engler and the 1994 victory by Spence Abraham. (Governor Engler twice won easy reelection bids in 1994 and 98 against little known and/or poorly-funded opponents.) That is a long time.
What McCain/Palin Needed to Do:
4. The 3 largest counties in Michigan – Wayne (Detroit), Oakland and Macomb – account for approximately 40% of the vote. If you add, the next 7 largest counties (Kent, Genesee, Washtenaw, Ingham, Ottawa, Kalamazoo and Saginaw) you’re up to nearly 2/3 of the entire statewide vote (64.1% to be exact). In other words, the other 73 counties combined , many of which are rural and conservative, only make up just over a 1/3 of the entire statewide vote. The bad news for all GOP Presidential candidates is that only 2 of those largest 10 are solid GOP counties – Kent and Ottawa (President Bush did win Macomb in 2004 but only by 1.5% or 6000 votes.)
5. All that to say that to be successful in Michigan, McCain/Palin needed to not only win Macomb again (no small task), but to also out-perform Bush-Cheney ’04 fairly significantly in counties like Oakland (where he needed to win) and blue-collar Ingham (where he would have needed to cut into the 58-42 margin of defeat in 04).
... A very tough task in a blue state in this “change” environment..
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I will be far from rejoicing if Obama gets elected and Reid and Pelosi are still running Congress. I'd like to see most of them not return at all, Democrat and Republican. They are corrupt and need to be replaced. |
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Those who vote to bailout their donors should be turned out. Not just Democrats like Dodd, Schumer, Frank, and especially "Cold Cash" Jefferson, but some Republicans as well. It was Democrats who pushed the lending to high risk borrowers, but it was Republicans who loosened the rules and didn't enforce the others. The best thing that could happen is if we turned them all out. |
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I was listening to a reporter being interviewed this morning who was asking congressmen if they had even read any of the bills. He reported that most admitted they hadn't. He also believed that the few who said they had were lying because they couldn't/wouldn't answer simple questions about the content.
These probably believe that having the pages that contain the passages authorizing their pork counts for "reading the bill". They are being hectored by the money people that "something must be done". But not understanding the problem and believing that it is the government's job to do something, they will support the only bill in front of them.
There are probably more people in my office that have read the bill and understand it than there are in all of Congress.
And based on the shrill commentary from several of the noseholding commenters here at TH, it doesn't look like any of them read it either.
The key to this election is to separate conservatism from party affiliation. Gridlock returned to Congress after the GOP catastrophe in November 2006. That was a conservative victory. The same forces are now fighting the bailout bill. There will be hell to pay for those who ignore their phones ringing off the hook and opt instead to dance like monkeys for K Street.
We are winning. Believe it. |
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I was listening to the radio here in the upstate of South Carolina and they had Bob Inglis (our RINO House of Rep) on one of the talk radio shows. The guy came on and gave some lame excuse for why he voted FOR the bail out bill. He would not stay on the show long enough to take calls from the listeners, but after the show there were PLENTY of VERY angry callers, all of which were not happy with Inglis and said he would not be getting their vote this November. Unfortunately that will probably mean a Dem will win his seat, but we need to purge this party of the RINOs!!! |
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Tomorrow, the House is going to vote on whether we will be a Marxist economy or a free market capitalist economy. That is happening on the initiative of a Republican president and a one-party system heavily populated by Republicans. What is it exactly that scares you about Obama? McCain voted for this Marxist bill yesterday, just like Obama. There IS no lesser of two evils here, just two unacceptable evils. You are allowing the fear-mongers and race-baiters get to you. House conservatives are looking good in the polls and there is a good chance they will prevail tomorrow. That is the future, a conservative Congress fighting for us against a hopelessly corrupt one-party elite cabal. Don't be deny what you see. Conservatives are WINNING. It is Republicans who are getting smoked. That's a good thing. It just doesn't matter whether Obama or McCain wins unless you have race preferences.
You'll feel better if you join us at the Orphanage. It's alright to be conservative there. |
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It is make or break tonight, but Romney would have been savaged on the front of the ticket (although he would have bolstered McCain economically this last week). If Romney could not close the deal with Republicans, what makes you think he would have done better with Indies and Democrats?
Becareful what you wish for. I would not be so gleeful that Obama and Pelosi and Reid may end up running this country. |
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I'm a Virginia Tech grad and a HUGE Hokie fan! I post on the Hokie football message board all the time. But they also have a board to discuss politics. Not everyone on there is conservative, but I'd say 75% of the posters are. There's some pretty good discussion over there. Come check it out if you get the chance.
http://www.techsideline.com/message_board/america/ |
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with the McCain/Palin ticket isn't Palin.
Its MCCAIN !!! |
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I guess Ive been trying to come to grips with having McLame as the GOP's candidate so I havent been on TH much. My opinions of McAmnesty havent really changed, but what has change are my concerns about an Obama Presidency have definitely deepened.
To put it bluntly, this guy scares the hell out of me! This guy comes from the far left fringe and is now on the threshold of taking over the Oval office.
Mainstream America needs to be afraid - VERY afraid!
Either way we are screwed this election. I am still not sure what I am going to do, but I do know that like Chris Matthews, Obama gives me chills except its not up my leg - its down my spine!!!!
I will definitely have to come check out the Orphanage. Thanks for the lin! |
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Haven't seen you in a while, you should drop in to the Orphanage and join the conversation among the conservatives. And you're right, Romney would have been a much better candidate than McLame.
http://viewfromtheisland.townhall.com
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This just confirms what we conservatives had been saying all along. We should have picked Romney in the primary.
McCain's win was a fluke. And while I really like Sarah Palin, there's no question that McCain screwed up BIG TIME by not picking Romney as his VP. Michigan would be in the McCain column right now if Romney were on the ticket. McCain once again decided to ignore the conservative and chose to believe the liberal garbage line that Romney's Mormonism would be a liability.
Only a very tiny minority of (hucka)bigots would not vote for Romney b/c of his religion. Conservatives such as myself is only concerned about a candidate ideology and belief system - not his brand of Christianity. |
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McScamnesty is gonna lose his @ss!
Thanks to him, Boosh and the rest of the RINOs,...the gob/gop is doa.....RIP! |
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MI GOP leaders basically begged McCain to choose Romney for veep. It was the only shot they had to turn the state red. Same for CO. NV is in there too as saying they needed Romney.
Oh well, what's a few key battle ground states compared to 16 million angry evangelicals?
Palin appeals to the states/people that were already in McCain's column. Too bad McCain isn't really even trying to win, or at least showing that he understands which EC votes he needs. |
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Just where and how exactly is McCain competitive with moderates and independents? It must be very re-assuring to them that Obama doesn't have to face a Republican this year. He is not competitive in a single blue state and is losing 8 red states to Obama. This is a failed campaign from concept, to strategy to operations. |
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'McCain has withdrawn from Michigan. Michigan reported to be frustrated.' |
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