Wednesday, January 16, 2008
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How Someone Gets the Nomination ...
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
4:13 PM
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Too often, we go from state-to-state analyzing who will win -- without ever thinking about how someone gets to the nomination. This thought-provoking email from a knowledgable DC insider is worth considering:
Because I'm a junkie, I set about attempting to analyze the remaining calendar. For the hell of it, let's say for now that Huckabee wins SC, Rudy wins FL and Fred gets out (not such crazy assumptions). If so, seems to me Feb 5 sets up extremely well for ... Rudy and Huckabee with several of their home/border states as well as other moderate and southern states voting that day -- Rudy: NY, NJ, CT, DE, CA, IL; Huck: AR, AL, GA, TN, MO, OK.
Question is will they have the money to compete?? Maybe Mar 4 sorts this out??
I've been a critic of Rudy's strategy, but the truth is, he really is well-positioned to win a large number of states -- especially if he wins Florida.
Might we enter into February 5th with Huckabee having just won SC -- and Rudy having just won FL? If so ...
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McCain is the front runner and there's no mention of him. Maybe he'll just fade away, but at the moment he is second to Romney in delegates. I think the junkie quoted by Matt is looking too hard at Rudy and is is ignoring the liberal coalition of McCain/Huckabee. This coalition is blowing Rudy out of the water. |
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No Rudy, No McCain, No Huckabee
Their answer to illegal aliens:
Pretty much the same as Hillary and GWB. Lip service to border security and "Comprehensive Immigration Reform", amnesty. We tried that once in 1986 and it has failed miserably. We now have 10 times the number of illegal aliens. We will either elect a President who will uphold the laws or one who will change them to accomodate the illegal aliens. If we do the latter, we are voluntarily committing national suicide.
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McCain's strength is Liberals and Independents. Huck's voters are self-identified as very conservative and vote on religion only (look at the exit polls).
McCain and Rudy cancel each other unless they divide up the liberal states.
McCain will most likely win SC. Romney will have some bounce from MI and that will probably come out of Huck and Fred in SC. Romney may take NV.
That gives Romney and McCain MO into FL. Romney and Rudy will have the best GOTVs in FL. FL will be close but Rudy is in trouble. His fund raising is hurt and he is even with McCain in NY and NJ.
Romney can spend a lot in FL on the suburbs just like he did in MI.
When we look back we may say that the worse strategic mistake of the campaign was made by Rudy when he pulled out of NH and gave it to McCain to stop Romney. McCain may yet sink Rudy (along with Rudy's loser "rope a dope" strategy).
SC may really hurt Fred and probably Huck which helps Romney in FL. If Romney can't win SC then he wants McCain to win SC. That hurts Rudy and divides the Liberal vote. Romney would prefer to run against McCain instead of Rudy on Super T.
Further, Huck demonstrated that without months of campaigning (IA) his GOTV is non existent in NH and MI. He lost the Evangelical vote in MI to Romney. |
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CA is winner take all at the CD level and Romney will get his share of delegates. IL is non binding. AL, AR, GA, TN, and OK, are winner take all at the CD level. If Huck can't win SC with Fred in it then why would he win in the South with Fred broke or out of it? Most of Fred's remaining vote will go to Romney. Huck already grabbed the Fred vote that would move to him.
Romney will go after the CDs because what will count after Super T is the delegate count.
Right now McCain has just as good of poll numbers as Rudy in NY and NJ.
After Super T Rudy or McCain will be marginalized and Huck may or may not be all that viable. |
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McCain will likely win SC, and if he does he will likely win most of the states that Rudy thought he was going to win. A poll out today shows Rudy trailing in NJ to McCain. |
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to McCain's. He basically said so in the debate. And he also believes in campaign finance reform. But you'll never hear Hewitt mention this. His main claim to fame is chasing some hobos out of Times Square and flashing a toothy grin that makes him look like a nice guy. Improving the economics of a city during the nineties wasn't that much of a miracle with the economy such as it was. He was out of there after 9-11. Most of the real economic rebuilding was done by Bloomberg. But he really doesn't see to want it that much.
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Not that it matters but Rudy isn't getting Delaware. Right now McCain is doing best in this state, but I am working to see that Mitt Romney makes his way to the top by Feb 5. |
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Governor Huckabee was the first to sign a 'No Amnesty' Pledge for Illegal Aliens and he has a clear 9-point immigration plan to seal the borders.
People need to know the truth and Mike Huckbee's record is being distorted by conservative radio because Romney's company, Bain Capital owns their radio stations.
The Republican party is trying to fool Christian voters and so many are falling for it. Please do not be deceived!
Please check out http://www.mikehuckabee.com and find out the truth.
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People need to know what is really going on in this election!
Mitt Romney's company Bain Capital has been in the process of acquiring Clear Channel which owns over 1,100 radio and 30 tv stations. Rush, Hannity, Ingraham and Beck are all under contract with Clear Channel. Any wonder why all of these hosts are pushing a liberal like Romney?
Romney and his friends have contributed nearly $600,000 to Club for Growth to attack Mike Huckabee. Romney also made a huge donation to the National Review which is why they endorsed him. He spent the years before his presidential bid making large contributions to social and fiscal conservative groups in order to buy votes.
Romney had an abysmal record in Mass. with a net increase in taxes higher than that of Huckabee's in Arkansas. Romney hid his tax increases in "fees" so it wouldn't look like taxes but the net effect is the same. Mass had higher unemployment than the national avg when he was governor and many businesses left the state. He also helped instiute gay marriage and ran as a pro-choice, anti-Reagan candidate. Watch the videos on youtube.
I've thoroughly researched Governor Huckabee and he is a fiscal conservative, a very strong social conservative and an honest and sincere candidate.
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How long the money will last is the key question.
Rudy desperately needs a good showing in Florida, he's almost broke. If he wants to have ANY credibility as a viable candidate, he needs to take Florida.
Thompson and Huckabee are also losing money. They both have to have a good showing in SC and get some donation dollars rolling in.
Romney is self-funded, so he's in for the duration.
McCain is growing a bit in popularity, but that hasn't seemed to translate into very many donations for him; it should be interesting to see how he did in the last quarter of 2007.
The only candidate that appears to have enough donations flowing in from outside his church and family members is Ron Paul. If he can stick it out while Huck, Rudy and Fred flounder, the media will HAVE to start treating him like a viable candidate. |
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eliza writes:
"Mitt Romney's company Bain Capital has been in the process of acquiring Clear Channel which owns over 1,100 radio and 30 tv stations. Rush, Hannity, Ingraham and Beck are all under contract with Clear Channel. Any wonder why all of these hosts are pushing a liberal like Romney?
Romney and his friends have contributed nearly $600,000 to Club for Growth to attack Mike Huckabee. Romney also made a huge donation to the National Review which is why they endorsed him. He spent the years before his presidential bid making large contributions to social and fiscal conservative groups in order to buy votes."
I don't know if this is true or not, but it would make a lot of sense. I've been racking my brain trying to figure out why all these allegedly "conservative" commentators would be supporting Romney. I feel like I'm in some sort of looking glass world where phoniness now equals conservatism, so Romney is therefore the most conservative candidate.
But there is definitely something weird going on. I usually always see eye to eye with commentators like Hannity, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Levin etc etc...up until now. And I'm not that hard to please. For instance, I would find any other GOP candidate (besides Ron Paul) acceptable. But Mitt Romney has reached such a critical mass of phoniness-- there is absolutely no way that I could support the man. He has lied way too many times to be taken seriously and his record is so liberal it puts Lincoln Chafee to shame. This universal support for him is mind numbing.
I don't want to believe that there is some kind of back room deal going on here but it would sure explain why nearly every "conservative" radio host has been spouting the exact same hollow rhetoric for the last five weeks.
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