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Thursday, July 24, 2008
Barack Obama: The "Riskier" Choice
Posted by: Carol Platt Liebau at 3:42 PM
An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll holds some troubling numbers for Barack Obama.

Who do voters think is the "riskier choice"?  Obama - 55% to 35%.

Better "being knowledgeable, experienced"? McCain - 53%-19%

Better "Commander-in-chief"?  McCain - 53%-25%

McCain also rates better at being "honest, trustworthy" and being "consistent, standing up for beliefs" and "having leadership qualities."  Barack leads in "improving America's standing in the world," "being compassionate," "offering hope" and "being likable, easygoing."

So the question is: Which personality/qualities template will the American people believe is more important when they go to the polls to vote for a President in November of 2008?

We've heard a lot comparing this election to the Reagan/Carter contest in 1980.  Then, there was a sense of "wrong-trackness" that some analogize to the current climate, and people waited until the last minute, but then decided to take a chance on Ronald Reagan.  In that train of thought, the idea is that perhaps Barack Obama could enjoy a similar, last minute surge of support.

It's possible, but I don't think so -- and here's why.  Ironically, it has a lot to do with Democrats' efforts to stir up a crisis atmosphere when it comes to energy, the economy, etc.  Obviously, they think it's to their advantage in order to whip up voters' desire for "change."  But they may have been too clever by half, and here's why.

When Americans believe there are tough times ahead, my guess is that they're not as likely to go with the "compassionate" or "likable" guy.  They want someone "experienced" who can demonstrate "leadership."

In 1980, plenty of people still thought Carter was a "compassionate" guy who was "likable."  They just didn't think he was tough enough, a good enough leader, to deal with a faltering economy and a Soviet Union on the march.  Ronald Reagan, in contrast, came across as nothing if not a decisive, effective leader who wasn't going to let the US get pushed around anymore.  The chance-taking had nothing to do with the kind of qualities where voters see Barack as a disadvantage, e.g. experience, leadership and even consistency of belief (if anything, Reagan's problem was that Carter was arguing that he was too zealous about his beliefs and that those principles constituted a risk). 

For Barack, perhaps the relevant "chance taking" year is less 1980 than it is 1992.  Wouldn't voters be much likelier to take a chance on a new face, someone who's good at "offering hope" in a year like that one -- when, perhaps, the economy was weaker than it should be, but otherwise, the world was at peace and rolling the dice on a new guy wasn't out of the question?

Now, we live in an age of Islamofascist terrorism.  We need to figure out a more effective energy problem.  The economy bears careful watching.  In short, there is a lot going on.  Will Americans figure it's time to make the "riskier choice," go with, perhaps, the least prepared presidential candidate in modern history, and then allow him the space and time he'll need for on-the-job training?

View in ascending order View in descending order
Virginia Patriot writes: Friday, July, 25, 2008 8:45 AM
Neither R nor D
The two divisions of the United Establishment Party* are under the same ownership. They have no intention of stopping the illegal alien inundation. The cheap labor express will be kept running. If you vote for amnesty, you will get it.

*h/t pasadena phil
ScarletPimpernel writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 5:57 PM
the great earmark killer
and why doesnt't the Great Earmark Killer object to la Raza getting all those earmarks?

or

¿Y por qué el Gran Deja una señal objeto de Asesino al la Raza consiguiendo todo ésos dejan una señal?

Virginia Patriot writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 5:40 PM
Why Trust LaRaza to Pick Our Future?
Ask McCain why he doesn't understand the word ILLEGAL.
Joe writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 5:37 PM
Why trust Germans to pick our furher?
"While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a 'citizen of the world,' John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it."

McCain Campaign Statement (Spot on with this comment)
ScarletPimpernel writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 4:38 PM
gracias, VaPat
I liked your reminder that McCain's the only one to beat Hillary. hahaha
davecatbone writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 4:37 PM
the risk is Obama's...
in counting on his voting bloc actually getting out of bed and going to the polls, especially if the weather is crummy on election day...
miss vicky writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 4:34 PM
"O" has lots to learn, not ready to Lead
When enemies of America are in bed with Obama and most of his beguiled worshipers consider him their Santa Claus, so they don't care if he is scary and somewhat radical,of course he is risky!
His Robin Hood approach, "rob the rich to pay the poor" will leave America financially insecure. To be a Peacenik/Dove leaves us vulnerable to attack. If we don't learn from history, we're doomed to repeat it. The bottom line is the Iraq mistake taught us never to start a war unless in self defense. Wrong con-clusions were based on false assumptions! Fear took over and we have paid a dear price.
Lets not go from one extreme to another. Dove or Hawk? Can we find a "mental" Giant rooted in moderation and common sense!
Virginia Patriot writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 4:19 PM
Sure Thing Democrat John McCain
You summed it up nicely Scarlet.
ScarletPimpernel writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 4:14 PM
Don't forget
based on landmark bills passed, McCain is also the better Dem/lib.
Joe writes: Thursday, July, 24, 2008 4:14 PM
Of course he is riskier
He is a far less known quantity than John McCain, and what we do know about him is demonstrably more dovish, wrong, and oriented to the far left.
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