It has basically been down hill for Obama since his Euro trip!
Would be curious to see the new polls electoral break down. |
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They will return to "lousy poll, not to be taken seriously" status as soon as they favor Obama.
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All polls have shown polls have shown favorable movement in McCain's direction ever since Obama went to Europe. |
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Pray tell, why do the Obamacans think he will help us financially? Just because he has raised so much money from gullible, smittened groupies and his race etc., does not make him an expert??
What background prepares him for financial economical success?? His plan, the "Robin Hood" approach, to take from the rich to give to the poor is already happening. To pick our pockets even more will make us ALL fall! How smart is that?! Ex Democrat |
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LA Times/Bloomberg coming out with a poll this afternoon, 5pm EST, which may be bad news for Obama...
just snap shots in time but it's interesting to see the state of the race before the conventions... |
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According to the polls, Hillary and Rudy were going to be the nominees. So much for polls. |
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I'd love to see those cross tabs too. Obama picked up another point of McCain in the Ras poll today, up to 3% over, his largest lead in a while. I'd love to see the Zogby crosstabs compared to the old poll, McCain is just as out of whack as the Obama +15 from that crazy Newsweek poll a few weeks ago.
Electorates simply don't move that much, no matter the candidate. Don't look at it through they eyes of partisanship, look at it through the eyes of a keen observor. Polls move in incremeents of one or two percentage points a week, and that's A LOT of movement.
Don't get excited/frightened over outliers. The trend is Obama +2 to +4 over the past 5 weeks and will stay there (plus or minus one point each side) until the conventions. |
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"talk a good game." He told the VFW in Orlando today that he and his opponent need to "debate," yet everytime McCain has invited him to do townhall meetings Obama scampers away with his tail between his legs.
Most of us can still see that Obama is only effective at speaking when he has a teleprompter or when he has had time to "memorize" a speech.
Obama was only crying foul about the Saddleback forum and claiming McCain had an unfair advantage because Obama has probably already received all the questions that will be posed in the "scheduled" debates, hosted by his fawning media. Obama only cries foul when he is guilty. |
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I'm looking forward to the nationally televised debates. There, I hope one of those tools nails Obama by asking the following:
"Senator, in the Illinois Senate, you and others approved an amendment to a bill dealing with partial-birth abortions--which provided the "neutrality language" that is present in comparable federal legislation and which you've insisted was critical to the bill's ultimate enactment--and yet when it came time to vote to move the bill forward and out of your committee, you voted against it?
"Why do you have such a radical position on partial-birth abortion? Why have you denied that you have such a radical position? And why have you accused opponents of misrepresenting your radical position when, indeed, you are the one who is misrepresenting his position?"
Lying sack. Nice regard for the sanctity of life. |
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Those polls showing Hillary and Rudy leading were six months before the first primary. People actually are paying attention now. |
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Obama surrogates like to point out Obamas judgement, and while there is a long list of things I can point out to contradict his "judgement", I really only need to list 2.
Cocaine
Rev. Wright
These are the 2 things that give me the giggles whenever any of his surrogates talk about Obamas judgement. |
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yawn...
Similar to The One...facts seem to escape you...
1) margin of error is about 3.5...
2) I find it really humorous that you're questioning why McCain hasn't pulled ahead...
This is a pathetic attempt to make yourself feel better when in reality your boy and his campaign are feeling not so cocky these days as the party gets more nervous that The One can't seem to pull away...
He lost most of the primaries to Hillary towards the end and barely made it over the finish line...
He can't close the deal...You know that...I know that...
3) The question you should really be asking yourself is this...
How come, based on the below, The One is not further ahead:
- poor economy
- unpopular war
- unpopular president
- control of Congress
- a celebrity's tour of Europe
- ALL of MSM in his corner
- NO vetting of his past
And he's still tied with McCain?...
Even that DOPE Kerry was ahead by DOUBLE DIGITS at this time!!!!...
Now, I'll give you that the polls don't mean squat at this time, and next week WILL be completely different, but these numbers nationally AND the recent numbers out of FL, OH, VA and CO are telling a VERY bad story for Obama right now...
He whiffed on Georgia....
He whiffed at the forum...
Sorry, but Americans are paying more attention now and they don't like what they see...
So ask yourself why you feel nervous?...
I would...
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Pasadena Phil writes: Tuesday, August, 19, 2008 1:04 PM
So Zogby is in favor again (for today)
They will return to "lousy poll, not to be taken seriously" status as soon as they favor Obama.
Kimberly writes: Tuesday, August, 19, 2008 2:05 PM
Who're they polling?
The only people who still answer their land lines: Morons and the elderly. Big whoop.
Me:
Looks like the wacko lefty round here beat us to it.
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The Democrats can feel this election slipping away. A poll just came out in NY that shows Obama is only leading 47%-39%. If Obama is not up by double digits in the most liberal state in the country you liberals should start being concerned. |
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Never mind the fact that...
1) He's a Democrat...
2) His last poll from mid-July had Obama UP 7...
Yawn...
More spin from the Liberal Lemmings... |
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"Who're they polling?
The only people who still answer their land lines: Morons and the elderly. Big whoop."
What's the matter Kimmie, getting a little scared your sacred cow might be defeated by an old guy.
Can I have some of the Kool-Aid you are always drinking?
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Gallup - Obama +1
Rasmussen - Obama +2
Guess they polled a bunch of morons for these as well, did they?
Slip, sliding away....
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But of course...
The people polled in the Quinnipiac poll that has Obama UP 5, today...
1) Only use cell phones, and...
2) Are NOT morons...
(according to Kim and King Liberal)... |
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I guess Kimberly never saw a doctor to deal with here severe case of BDS (Bush Derangement Syndrome) after Bush knocked off Kerry in 2004? Those bulls--t intraday exit polls in 2004 must still hurt!
I can only imagine what we are going to here from liberals if McCain beats Obama? |
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For months the lefties on TH have been trotting out this poll and that poll.Their arguments have been based on these polls as if they were proof positive but now they want poll accountability.It sounds a little desperate to me. |
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Everyone would be well served to look at their history books. This is simply a replay of how it has been working in America for the past 40 years.
Dems start out in the lead because their base can be easily contacted by telemarketers and pollsters looking for input due. Why ? Well you’re more accessible at home when you don’t have a job. This skews the polls in their favor until the real race begins after the conventions. Also, early polls focus on Registered voters but as the cycle moves on, the polls turn more to Likely voters which is obviously more reliable. Once the voting American public stats to pay attention, the issues take on more importance and the Republicans start their rise in the polls. You do need to be very cautious of who is conducting the poll because some do a poor job of providing the balance needed in their poll participant groups in order to not skew the numbers. This is why Zogby, Gallup Daily Tracking of Likely Voters, and Rassmussen have proven to be the most reliable, as opposed to CNN, New York Times, LA Times, or frankly any big city newspapers that have consistently been exposed as slanting their poll group to fit their ideology. Carter had a 25 point lead on Ford and won by 2 points, Reagan trailed Mondale until October and won in a landslide, GW trailed both Gore and Kerry by double digits before the conventions and won.
Bottom line is that no Dem in recent history has come back from a deficit before the convention and won, so it doesn’t look good for Barry. America is looking for a leader with character, judgment, experience, and leadership and he is failing the test of convincing us he has what it takes to run the most powerful country in the world.
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Thank you - I deliberately left out that one to see if anyone would bite.....
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Quinn adjusts for the "cell effect." Voters under thrity are far less likely to have landlines and are thus excluded from polling yet they overwhelmingly vote Obama. Quinn adjust for this (they're tabing based on age demos and will keep calling different groups until the final sample size looks like the actual demo size). Ras adjusts for party ID (this is, they keep calling until the get a sample size that looks like the party ID of the electorate they are polling, based on their own estimates).
CNN famously does not adjust for either which is why they get such wacky results sometimes.
Personally I think Quinn's approach is superior since age doesn't change between now and election day but party ID often does. Others disagree.
I don't know about Zogby, they are pretty experienced pollsters so I would bet they are adjusting for either demographics or party id, but if they're assumptions are wrong that could account for the whacked out result. |
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That was dumbest thing I've ever read. We are all dumber for having read it.
First of all, do you know what sample size is? There are have been 10 elections in 40 years. Good god, you can develop a trendline from that? Did you graduate from high school?
Dem's are unemployed? cite? Your sick and disgusting prejudices don't count. There is a trailer park here in Houston full of gross unemployed white drunks that is full of Bush/Cheney signs. Is that a national trend?
America is looking for a leader who doesn't cheat on his wife with a drug-addled bimbo. Sorry for McCain. |
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"America is looking for a leader who doesn't cheat on his wife with a drug-addled bimbo" - I guess you did not vote for Bill Clinton? |
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...Barry's trip to the bottom is a real Slow Ride...... |
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I am holding my nose due to the stench of the position we are better off losing and giving the election to Barack Obama.
Nuts. |
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Obama had the self respect to buy his own drugs. Cindy stole them from a charity for children!
Rashum - So McCain and Clinton are moral equivalants in your book? Good to know. I knew you conservatives were all hypocrites, but its nice to see you so clear about it. Clinton cheating = bad. McCain cheating = good. Gotcha.
Forgive McCain, forgive Clinton. Its not an either or thing, unless you're a partisan hack. So are you a partisan hack? |
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Don't take readabook's warm fuzzies seriously..we're talking a severely abused child here.....the lobotomies were way over the top in my opinion.
Note the fact that facts not in their favor make the libs scream like rats in a bear trap.
As Dracula would say, "...children of the night. What music they make....!" |
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McCain never raped a woman or lied under oath! |
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You are too funny my man...
I guess you didn't understand the point of my comments...
For 18 months all we've heard is how wonderful The Messiah is...
You have everything going for you and you're either slightly ahead or tied?...
That's my point...
This election isn't about McCain...
He's a known entity...
This is about Obama...
And ever since the orgy in Europe, his numbers have dropped...
Coincidence?...
Maybe, maybe not...
And since you're a little too slow to pick it up, your comment that McCain SHOULD be ahead is beyond laughable...
You and I both know the truth... |
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"America is looking for a leader who doesn't cheat on his wife with a drug-addled bimbo."
The last two presidents have both admitted illegal drug use and one of them was a serial adulterer (and alleged rapist) as well as a liar under oath. With Obama's self confessed use of pot and coke I don't think Cindy McCain's prescription painkiller abuse is really going to make any comparitive waves. Not a road I'd go down if I were you. It's not a winner.
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McCain has pulled ahead...
Up by 2 now with leaners...
Was 1 back a couple weeks ago...
This will all change after the convention but this is interesting to see the deterioration of Obama since the orgy in Europe... |
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Sounds like you are in that 15% of Americans calling themselves Far Left. You seem to be displaying the classic traits of this group of overachievers that suffers from intense feelings of victimhood, lack of self esteem, and an overexposure to Teachers Unions in your formative years.
I’ll take the last 40 years as my measure and you can cite your preferences if you wish. It won’t change the reality of what is playing out again in this cycle. Unfortunately for you, the Dems drop in the polls is happening sooner this year than in past cycles. That debate sure helped your cause !! Usually the Dems meltdown, become exposed for the Socialists they really are, and start self imploding sometime in September, but Barry has decided to tank BEFORE the convention this year. That’s Change I can vote for !! I think it has something to do with you guys continuing to trot out these candidates with no experience, no character, no judgment, and no leadership. You know – basically those that have NO CLUE.
Whatever happens please be sure to stay bitter and negative and TAKE YOUR MEDS !!! I see your opinion of what America is looking for, but I can guarantee you that we are DEFINITELY NOT looking for someone who is Above His Pay Grade. Say hi to GW for me.
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You're right...
I'd much rather have a president who is friends with unrepentant terrorists who hate America...
A president who's mentor is an anti-white preacher...
A president who thinks it's OK to kill babies who survive an abortion...
And for anyone to talk about McCain's shortcomings when you're the party of Edwards and cheating on his cancer-striken wife...BUT...
In HIS WORDS...
Her cancer was in REMISSION...
Is beyond hysterical...
And hypocritical... |
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...you get from buying drugs.
ReadABook writes: Tuesday, August, 19, 2008 5:13 PM
"At least Obama had the self respect to buy his own drugs."
Oh boy - that comment alone disqualifies you from ever being taken seriously again.
How on earth do you equate buying cocaine with self respect?
I'll bet my house that you could never get BO to admit "buying" drugs. I'll bet he just "tried" them (albeit "enthusiastically" according to his book).
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Obama was ahead by 12 points two months ago...
New poll shows it 45-43...Obama...
Statistical dead-heat...
Polls will change but a 10 point loss ain't good... |
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If Obama only has a single digit lead in both NY and CA he is in SERIOUS trouble!
As I have said before, it has been down hill for Obama since his Euro trip! Only positive thing to happen to Obama on that trip is his positive rose in Germany and France! And among those who can actually vote in the United States, I am sure he sowed up the liberal media vote! :) |
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I have no doubt Obama will win both those states...
And handily...
Remember, NJ floated down to 4-5 points for Kerry and Cheney went there for a couple days right before the election...
I agree with the premise, and if the polls stay tight in those states for a few weeks, you're absolutely correct...
Obama's plan was to attack McCain in red states but it may be that Obama has to watch his own as well... |
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Thanks for the heads up. I know how tough it must be for his kind watching this free fall before the convention. They should have stayed with Hillary but it's too late now. How good can this get !! Watching the Olympics and then going straight to the MELTDOWN IN DENVER. I wouldn't miss Hillary's speech for all the gold medals in China. |
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What I find most interesting is how big a role abortion still plays in these campaigns. We always here that pro-choice people make up about 70% of the population, but after Saddleback most of the Obama complaints I heard even on the left was on his ambiguity on abortion.
I think many Americans have more of a fear that late term abortions and taxpayer funded abortions will come back in a bg way then Abortion being made illegal across the board. This is where Obama fell into a trap. Even though the polls still have people favoring pro choice with restrictions position they clearly reject Obama's life ambivalence.
I think the Dems have some serious soul searching to do. It is hard to beleive but they may allow abortion to sink them just like it has in the past eight elections.
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was squirming this evening, double guessing whether or not Obama should pick Hillary now. My guess is that these poll numbers are why Matthews the misogynist is changing his tune and starting to sweat bullets. Sure, they didn't want her when he was "winning" but now that he is starting to stumble she doesn't look so bad. Point is...she was the better candidate to begin with and the liberal media screwed it up. My how the tide has turned in just as little at two months thanks to a lack-luster European tour, a few creative ads, changing world events and a little forum in Saddleback. Two months is a lifetime in politics. |
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"I can only imagine what we are going to here from liberals if McCain beats Obama?"
Answer:
Firstly, everyone who votes for McCain will be called a racist. Secondly, "It's Hillary's fault!"
100% guarenteed? No responsibility taken for nominating a weak candidate. |
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londongrl you are absolutely right - they will play the race card right away if Obama loses. Just like they did in NYC when Rudy beat Dinkins in 1993.
Hunt - I agree that Obama will win both CA and NY - I just do not think it is a good sign. McCain is wise not to chase Obama and spend money in southern states he is going to win easily. |
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKFKGrmsBDk |
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That comment really hurt him since only about 29% of people view themselves that way. |
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