Monday, June 30, 2008
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Why Chuck Todd is Right, and Why McCain Can Win ...
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
5:24 PM
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Yesterday on "Meet The Press," Tom Brokaw sought to "school" Chuck Todd concerning political predictions. Here's how "Viva Chuck Todd" scores the exchange:
The Chuck did what he's paid to do: prognosticate based on careful examination of current trends and data. Specifically, Obama not winning Montana and North Dakota. This set Tom off to quickly chide The Chuck in one might say, a condescending way: "Now be careful what you say at this stage about what he's going to win and what he's not going to win." The Chuck politely deferred to grandpa Tom's scolding and got back in the flow.
But, of course, Chuck Todd is correct. That's because he rocks, and Brokaw doesn't (there is no website called "Viva Brokaw!").
In all seriousness, Todd's point underscores the primary reason John McCain still has a chance to win the election; National popularity matters much, much less in a "winner-take-all" electoral system than it would in a national election.
Consider this: In 2004, Bush got 64 percent of the vote in North Dakota. Clearly, John McCain won't do that well -- but he will most assuredly win the state (as Chuck Todd correctly predicts).
Here's why Todd can essentially guarantee it: Let's suppose that Obama's popularity is so impressive and overwhelming that it garners him 10 more points in North Dakota than John Kerry got just four years ago. That would be impressive, but he would still lose the state by a landslide. And McCain would still get all three electoral votes. You see, it really doesn't matter if Obama gets 49 percent of the North Dakota vote, or 35 percent of the North Dakota vote -- he still loses the state. That extra 14 points of popularity means nothing.
This isn't the only example of how Obama's chances are being over-sold. Today, cable TV news was "abuzz" about Obama's chances to win in the South (this is supposed to send shivers down my spine and show that Obama is building this amazing juggernaut). The truth is that Obama has no chance in the real south. The only real chance Obama has to pick-up a "southern" state is in Virginia -- and that has more to do with the changing demographics in the state than it does with Obama's popularity. Virginia is a purple state, and has been for a while, now.
Obama does have a chance in VA, but McCain can make up for it by picking off a Kerry state. This, of course, is not impossible. He has a chance to win New Hampshire (where McCain rules), Minnesota (home of Pawlenty and the GOP Convention), Pennsylvania (home of "bitter gun-clingers") and Michigan (Romney country), just to name a few ...
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comes from listening to Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann make idiots of themselves on the night of the NH primary. They virtually crowned Obama before the polls even closed, relying on "unreliable" exit polls. I think Tom is trying to save face and avoid a repeat. |
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Dear American Voters, reporters, media. professionals, political
parties, and presidential Nominees,
Subject: Presidential Temperament
Please talk about and "Compare And Contrast" the " Presidential
Temperament" of our Presidential presumptive nominees. I will also
request and plead to the nominees themselves [ Hon. Senator McCain
and Obama ].
Our nation has been applying this yard and stick tor the appointments
and confirmation process of our Supreme Court Justices nominees.
Our Greatgrand Nation Foundations are as under:
Family, friends, fellows, faith, funds, fun, with fairness & freedom
And without fear, favor, and failure.
It will be disgrace and shameful if the nominees and media will not
look into this critical and crucial aspect under current challenging
times and circumstances within our country and all around the Globe.
America wake up and the discuss the " Presidential Temperament" of
our presumptive presidential nominee's [ Hon. Senator McCain and
Obama].
Yours sincerely,
COL. A.M.Khajawall [Ret].
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas, Nevada.
PS: The Key still is the Presidential Temperament? |
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If they sold Mitt on his strengths, not some uber social conservative. Mitt Romney is socially conservative (generally) in his personal life, but was a social moderate on policy before he ran for President. He got killed on the flip flopping charge.
But Mitt is a serious economic policy wonk who really truly gets that subject. More than Barack Obama. More than John McCain. Mitt has run business, knows many of the major players, and understands the automotive industry. This is HUGE and a spectacular selling point. It would truly be good for the country to have a guy like Mitt Romney combined with a fiscal conservative like Phil Gramm at Treasury.
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Todd over that. Funny, how Brokaw and the main stream media in general don't mind telling truth to power when it comes to the MSM schooling Republicans and Conservatives. |
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McCain could lose GA, NC, MS, and Texas. But he'll win ND. |
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Exactly the argument she was trying to make during the primary. It's a state by state election, not a national one. Oh well....bed made, now lie in it. |
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The press is just drumming up hype. It is far too early to really know what will happen.
This election could be a blowout on either side or pretty close.
My opinion is that the independents will wake up after labor day and whomever they feel will deliver us from high oil prices will win. |
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...A LOT!
I watch him in the morning on "Morning Joe", and he just refuses to give in to the rampant "Barack-o-mania". He keeps being a buzz-kill to Mica Brezinski, who wants to just give the election to Barack now, without all of the trouble of an actual ELECTION.
Chuck is the most honest pundit on TV today. Period. |
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Very good observations. I suspect that Todd, though he may be a long shot, realizes that he may be the only NBC'er currently on staff who could be objective enough to carry on the Meet the Press tradition. From what I understand, Brokaw will continue to host through at least the election. If Todd can hang tough, who else is there?
Matthews will be suffering from too many leg tingles.
Olbermann is a nonstarter.
Although I like Scarborough, I don't see it.
Dan Abrams--no way. Andrea Mitchell--no way. David Schuster? C'mon.
Besides, if McCain wins, half of that group will commit suicide.
Todd doing the right thing.
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I like VAP, but he is thinking with his emotions as is the DNC. There are states in play. Ga., Fla.,Miss., Tx. are not. Please, see the facts not the bias against ole John because of illegals. He made mistakes there but that is not even in the first 5 issues that people think will settle this election. With Weasle Clark's horrendous statements, the gun decision, the energy nonsense that leftist socialist pacifists believe and are deranged, and the fact that the Messiah is a naif dealing with domestic energy problems as well as international problems, puts this election in play right up till Nov. Playing footsie with nutters like Barr and Nader may impact the election, but Pubs must stop this silliness and get behind McCain as well as trying to negate huge Dem gains in the Congressional elections. Court choices, energy choices, military choices, tax hike choices , alone should make ole John (flawed we know) a much better choice than the Messiah who would change this nation for generations and not for HOPE and Good Change. |
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Obama-Kennedy Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act
Obama-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act
Obama-Leiberman Cap and Trade, Carbon Tax Bill
Obama and the Gang of 14
Obama and the Keating Five
Obama thinks Samuel Alito is "too conservative"
Obama believes oil company executives are over-paid
Obama believes oil company "windfall profits" should be taxed
Obama accuses anyone who believes our borders should be secured of being bigots and xenophobes.
No! Wait! Those aren't Obama's liberal accomplishments! They're MCCAIN's!!
Never mind. Go back to the fear-mongering and race-baiting.
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Virginia Patriot: McCain will not lose Texas. Like most Republicans and Conservatives, I would not vote for Obama if he was the only man running. I am not happy with McCain's illegal immigration stance, but that alone will not make me vote for socialist/communist/racist/America hating Obama.
Now McCain may lose Austin, TX, but the majority of Texans are either Republican or Conservative Republican.
I am also disappointed in the Republican Party but that does not mean I will vote for a 3rd party candidate. I made that mistake once when I vote for Ross Perot. |
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What...you mean the election isn't over yet...?
O-Man hasn't been crowned the new emperor? What?
You mean to say that the emperor's new clothes are a bit skimpy?
Or is it that O-Man's just an empty suit... |
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Bush's margin in Va against Kerry in 2004.
** Bring a barf bag with you to the polls,
** have someone blind fold you
** get drunk first
but
VOTE FOR John McCain.
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I always thought that the Clinton's would say and do anything to win a vote,but I guess Obama is worst,because He won the primary against Hillary.He changes His mind when ever He thinks it will get another vote.He preaches that He is such a great Christian,but beleives in Abortion,and Gay Marriage.How can anyone belive in abortion,the murdering of a innocent unborn child???? |
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