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What’s different this time? Every other scandal, be it Democrat or Republican, runs its course and then is thought of no more. To coin a phrase, the public moves on. But this time, the thought (or in my house, fear) is that the Foley scandal will linger for five weeks and thus usher in an electoral catastrophe for the Republican Party. Apparently, I’m not alone in harboring such worries. The right wing pundictocracy is full of similar concerns, and these concerns apparently preoccupy the highest ranking Republicans in the land. Why?
The first reason is because the Foley scandal stinks. I mean it really, really stinks. Phil Donahue used to cry to people on his unlamented TV show that they wouldn’t get any media coverage unless they generated the publicity equivalent of a baby in a well. Sadly for us, this scandal has that. A congressman sharing self-abuse with a teenager over the internet certainly qualifies.
There’s also the lingering consternation that the highest ranking Republicans in the land will be revealed as either complicit or negligent in allowing Foley to do his thing. With no way to prove a negative, the House leadership can’t win on this one.
I’VE COME HERE THIS AFTERNOON to tell you, oh concerned conservatives, that this too shall pass. Right now, as I watch Fox News, I see two possible takes on the Foley scandal. One is that it will make political history, turn an election upside down and effect an electoral tidal wave. The other is that like all previous scandals, even ones that involved a President, a cigar and a zaftig Valley Girl, it will run its course and either exit the public consciousness or bring the public’s wrath upon the parties who insist on bringing it up after its shelf life has expired.
Supporting the “historic scandal” interpretation, a Republican pollster briefed the House leadership this morning and said Mark Foley and his filthy IM’s will be the proximate cause for the Republicans losing 50 House seats in November. Supporting the contrary view is a Pew poll taken following the Foley revelations that shows the Foley scandal hasn’t moved the public opinion needle. Also supporting the latter view are the Rasmussen tracking polls of the president’s approval which have remained steady (miserable, but still steady!) since last Friday. Both of these metrics suggest the public hasn’t shifted into widespread rebellion over the Foley scandal.
I can hear you asking, How can this be? I don’t have any answers, just theories. My lead theory is that decades of Gerry Studds, Mel Reynolds, Bob Packwood, Barney Frank, Bill Clinton and a whole bunch of people named Kennedy has hardened the American public to the notion that America’s halls of power will be prowled by a fair number of very odd men. A Congressman behaving inappropriately with youths that strike his fancy may sadly fall into the dog-bites-man category.
There also exists the question of why has the GOP, both its loyal pundits and its leadership, taken on a Chicken Little demeanor and felt as if the sky is falling over this particular scandal? After all, Clinton had the Monica thing break wide three months before the 1998 election and the Democrats went on to romp.
I think the rush to prematurely go to the mattresses comes from two+ years of living in an incredibly tight political climate where every news cycle has been treated as a life-or-death struggle. The race between Bush and Kerry took shape nine months before Election Day. The only time either candidate got any breathing room was right after the Republican convention, and the president yielded that cushion with a first debate performance that was the rhetorical equivalent of the Hindenburg. (I blogged that he won at the time, but thankfully no one was paying attention.)
Since the 2004 election, the distance separating the parties has steadily remained wafer thin. Whenever something happens that ephemerally alters the dynamic, the side on the losing end of that particular cycle understandably gets a little antsy. For Republicans this week, “antsy” has morphed into panic.
So how will it play out? The Republican leadership will get its act together. The story will soon die of old age; news gets old much faster in this, the era of the Internet.
Democrats will become enraged at the scandal’s ineffectiveness and overplay their hands. Embellishments and things that look like dirty pool will come to light. (Be sure to check out Drudge for tip of the iceberg in that regard.) At the end of the day, Foley will be revealed as one very weird guy. And the Democrats will look more bilious and impotent than ever, spewing anger at Republicans about deeds done in the past while having no plans they’re willing to share about the future.
Foley won’t be the first politician to earn such a rap. And his party won’t be the first to be virtually unaffected by it. Remember where you read it first.
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