Thursday, October 01, 2009
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Re: Matt Drudge, "No Pawlenty Can Not Top Obama"
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Posted by:
Kevin McCullough at
3:46 PM
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 Unfunded, not yet known... I like Minnesota's Governor Tim Pawlenty, but let me be clear about this up front here. He's presently a distant 4th place at BEST amongst GOP hopefuls for 2012. As I've written repeatedly over the last few months, the nomination, at present is Gov. Mike Huckabee's to lose. I know the memes that are crawling out of the mouth of Romney supporters, but it's true and you know it. Pawlenty is plenty conservative enough for the party, and as a popular twice elected Governor of his state he just now joins the field of 3 other Governors who were also popular. Pawlenty is a nice guy, he's well spoken, he's got a great temperment and he is pretty well known in Minnesota. But that's about where it ends. Look at the field so far: Palin & Romney are definitely running. Huckabee is 95% likely to run. Pawlenty doesn't offer anything new that these three haven't already offered. And keep this in mind for 2012. The winning message will include a component that is anti-tax. (Huckabee is on record to break up the IRS, and convert the nation to a fair tax. And don't listen to Hugh on this one. Though the fair tax is outrageously different than the present system, it would be a morally & Constitutionally appropriate tax, and it WILL be an attractive alternative to the continued escalation of taxes from the Obama administration.) Romney will be hobbled by the failure of the Massachusetts health care system--a system he authored--where $50 abortions can be accessed on the state's dime, but many needed procedures are not always accessible. That coupled with the fact that he could not finish higher than third in the last election cycle--even after spending gobs of his own cash--bode very poorly for him in attempting another run. Though I am convinced he will run again... Palin has enormous popularity, enormous brand, and will be able to raise a fer amount of cash by the time the important election cycle comes along. It will be important for her to out perform the others in the debates, to manage her team, message, and brand wisely, and her ability to continue to have that "I am every mom" sort of practicality in order for her to even have a chance. Huckabee was severely hurt by the Romney forces in the last primary. There were a dozen PACs or so run by Romney staffers that continually fed misinformation to National Review. That dishonest, non-factual, and manipulated information was then repeated by the likes of Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter. He will not be so easily thus manipulated this go around. Coulter and Limbaugh will owe him apologies over the way they portrayed him in 2008. But he will rally the faith-based, the genuine conservative, the disaffected that John McCain seemed to have no use for. He has the top rated show of the entire weekend on ANY news channel. He invites liberals on to argue with him about policy, and he will have miles of video tape with his STATED positions on things. Might Romney resurge the Mormon/Christian debate? Yes, possibly, but not in a way that help himself. Might Palin sell more books than the Governor between now then. Of course. But when the dust settles the image of Huckabee will be his ability take on anyone in the establishment, to win through smiles, hugs, and jokes, and that he will not allow others to brand him this go around. For all of the above reasons Tim Pawlenty can not win. But it does not mean he should not run. MANY people RUN for President but few of them think they could actually WIN. The truth is merely running for President brings many side benefits that candidates find very helpful. Running in 2012 is a good prep lap for 2016 or 2020l. And it wouldn't be the most terrible thing in the world if Pawlenty ran with an eye for the future. But this go 'round, if Huck wants it, he will be the nominee. I said it first, I've said it longest, and the rationale still makes the most sense. Humility and Lower Taxes vs. Harvard Elitism and Out-Of-Control Tax and Spend. That's just way too easy of a choice!
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I sinply disagree with this article everybit of it. Neither Pawlenty or Huckabee will go anywhere. AMerica wants something different. You need to look at sleepers and one that is coming on strong is Congressman Mike Pence. |
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populist during the last primary, he would have been even more effective. But his stance on Wall Street/investors and other aspects of corporate America were troubling to me.
Certainly, he has a genial manner, a quick smile and wit, which makes him more approachable than Romney. If he had Romney's business acumen he'd be a well-rounded choice. His playing bass guitar helps dust off the stodgy-old-white-guy image.
Maybe we'll have to be satisfied with some combination of POTUS-VPOTUS that blends strengths and weaknesses: Huckabee-Romney; Huckabee-Jindal; Huckabee-Palin; Romney-Palin; etc. |
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Doc?
Are you kidding me?
ELIMINATE the IRS? How is that anti-Wall Street?
Romney is for the most part not going to be a factor with Presidential politics. His "solution" in Massachusetts is coming home to an unfriendly roost.
Huck/Palin would blow Obama off the map... |
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What polls pick Huck? Those taken at the "Values Voters Summit?"
Personally, I'd love to see Caribou Barbie and Huckabee in either order.
Obama will win in a landslide if you people can't do any better than that. |
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Who dare question your political prediction prowess... |
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unlike Romney (at least as far right religious types complained). Pawlenty is not a southern governor (no need for more of those). Pawlenty is smart, unlike Palin.
Isn't he far right religious enough? |
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Let's not forget, the polls up until December 2007 said that 2008 would be the great showdown between Guiliani and Hillary.... McCain was a distant fourth and was on life support, and Obama was considered a outside candidate... until the voters actually got to vote.
Romney will not be a viable candidate for one reason. Mormonism. The Evangelical crazies that have hijacked the GOP will not tolerate a Mormon. Which is probably a good thing, since Mormons are even crazier than Evangelicals. Further, the Primary schedule really doesn't help Romney. Michigan is going to remember he was willing to let GM go out of business after promising to do anything to save the Auto Industury. So he doesn't get a favorable primary until Super Tuesday other than the largely meaningless Nevada Caucus.
Palin won't have legs because she will be immediately bombarded by the MSM when she pokes her head up. She will continue to say dumb things, and will be mocked for saying them. By 2012, she'll have little credibility.
Now on to Huck, I like Huck. I think he actually gets what Jesus was trying to say. (The good stuff that goes right over the heads of the "Christian Right", which is neither). But there was a reason why Limbaugh went after him while leaving the gun-grabbing, thrice married Guiliani alone. He actually favors people over corporations, and corporate tools like Limbaugh and their sheep will never support him.
To be continued... |
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So why Pawlenty? Well, first, he's a Conservative who can actually appeal to moderates. The man won re-election as a Republican in 2006 when the voters were putting down every Republican they could find like Old Yeller. And he did this in Minnesota, one of the most liberal states in the Union. Even Reagan couldn't win there in 1984, but Pawlenty did.
The primary calender is very favorable to Pawlenty. Iowa is right next to Minnesota, he'll place reasonably well there. Huck won't do as well because he'll be fighting with Palin for the nutters.
Next you have New Hampshire, more moderate, probably won't support Huck or Palin. Then you have Michigan. Again, Romney won't do as well there this time. South Carolina might go to Huck or Palin (depending which ones the religious crazies settle on) but then Pawlenty has the advantage in Florida, where they are reasonably sane. Then you get Super Tuesday. Lots of blue states, lots of Midwestern states, would probably boost Pawlenty quite a bit.
In the end, though, 2012 will be a referendum on Barack Obama. If the economy is as bad as it is now, Obama is toast. He might even face a challenge within his own party. If the economy has recovered (and every person who knows economics I've talked to believes it will), he'll probably be re-elected easily, and the GOP will just be going through the motions. |
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I like pawlenty ,if wins the nomination good . I prefer Huckabee and think pawlenty is in for a much tougher race than any of the pundits think . He will not be hammered by Rush and company if hre decides to run . the economy will take another big hit next year because obama thinks he is roosevelt and is foolish enough to trhink that more govt. spending will do the trick and if that does'nt regulate everything more. 2010 is the republicans, if they can't straighten things out 2012 won't matter . makes me glad i've got property and assets outside of the country ,never thought i would feel that way . |
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Good for you, Kevin, making your prediction nearly 3 1/2 years before the election.
So much can happen between then and now, all of this is meaningless.
Nice try, though, in your attempt to engage a discussion in who was dishonest in the last primary contest.
Pssstt...it was Huckabee.
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I can tell you straight up romney has no chance,he is tied for better or worse to the romney care mess in mass .that and his rino record end any chance of a successful run . |
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I'm not going to argue the point. You may very well be correct. Much too early to tell. I've spoken to Romney personally and heard his explanation of the Mass Care issue. I think he was wrong on that point and it may cost him, but his explanation made some sense to me. I like Romney and trust his judgement. You don't. That's okay. I don't particulary like Huckabee but it's too early for internal bickering.
I don't know that much about Pawlenty but I'm willing to kick the tires a bit and give him a chance. |
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it is early to bicker ,i like what i've seen of pawlenty and i like palin and huckabee ,we'll have to disagree on romney . |
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" makes me glad i've got property and assets outside of the country ,never thought i would feel that way ."
Me - If I understand your home-schooled rant right, let's correct some of your fallacies.
First, you think Huck will win because you think religious nutters like yourself really influence the GOP. You don't. You're TOOLS. You're being used. if you don't believe me, name any issue you guys care about that you've made real progress on in the last 30 years. Gay Rights, Abortion, Evolution, Prayer in Schools- you guys are getting pushed back on your heels because the GOP doesn't care about these issues after elections happen. Rush savaged Huckabee despite the man is the ideal Christian...Married to the same woman, preacher, very moral person. Compare that to Rudy Guiliani, who was everything the Theo-Cons hate, but Rush left him alone.
Obama thinks he's FDR? You mean he's willing to lay the groundwork that made America the greatest power of the last half century?
Finally, the GOP will probably make gains in 2010, but not enough to take Congress. Midterms are never really indicitive of anything, other than who is mad enough to get out to the polls (only about 20% of the electorate votes in Midterms.) Obama might actually BENEFIT from setbacks. First, it allows him to sack Pelosi and Reid will probably be one of the casualties. That means he gets Hoyer and Durbin as his floor team, and a caucus lightened of these "Blue Dogs" Clinton and Reagan both took beatings in their first midterms, but came back to win re-election easily.
Why? Because the oppossition was too fixed on pleasing the base than appealling to the middle. Palin, Huck and Romney appeal to certain segments of the base. Pawlenty is a guy who could get the center.
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if the country continues as is,I won't be the only one retireing out of the country . The upper 5%of taxpayers pay 95%of all income taxes it will not take a lot of us leaving to make a big difference . like pawlenty and palin and huckabee I'm happy with any of those , Mcain was a moderate and he was slaughtered that kind of blows your pinheaded theory all to hell Palin only kept it from being a total trainwreck . |
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"if the country continues as is,I won't be the only one retireing out of the country . The upper 5%of taxpayers pay 95%of all income taxes it will not take a lot of us leaving to make a big difference ".
Well, I think the crime is that the upper 5%have 95% of the wealth....and make the other 95% of us fight over the 5% that's left.
You know, I bet you are just like those French Nobles in 1793 who thought the world was all about them... and damn that Guillotine looks sharp, don't it?
"like pawlenty and palin and huckabee I'm happy with any of those , Mcain was a moderate and he was slaughtered that kind of blows your pinheaded theory all to hell Palin only kept it from being a total trainwreck ."
Me- Uh, no. What you forget is that Obama only got 53%, and if McCain hadn't picked the REtarded Flight Attendant, he'd have probably made it closer. I know a LOT of people who told me they liked McCain, but were nervous about this retard being a heartbeat away.
The fact of the matter is that IF the reactionary nutter vote WAS dominant in the GOP, Romney or Huckabee would be the nominee, NOT McCain. Most Republicans were sane enough to realize that the nutters have taken the party off the edge of the cliff, and we were TRYING to bring it back. Unfortunately, the damage Bush did to the economy made McCain's task impossible.
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I don't believe you are rich, Clay. You simply don't have the language skills to indicate to me that you could possibly be all that intelligent. I know you are one of these people who likes to get on the internet and tell us how rich you are, kind of like the degenerate who gets on the internet and tells teenage girls his male member is 12" long, really.
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must drive you crazy to think a bluecollar average joe like me can get rich when an elitest git-n-go clerk like you has to settle for minimum wage. Read the "millionare next door" and maybe you'll catch a clue . probably not. remember 10 10 10 30 40 tithe 10% blow 10% save 10% invest 30% in your biz or on improving your skills and learn to live on 40% I'm only average in the male member department but i've got a great wife and kids and more work than my little construction company can do . i hope that continues but with obama and company screwing up the economy who knows how long that will last. i'll continue to tithe and ask God's blessing and leave the worrying to smart guys like you. |
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because I don't believe for a minute you are rich, just based on your use of language. Sorry, I just don't. I also don't believe for a minute you have a wife. I think you are like one of these people who has to brag how GREAT his life is on the internet because in REAL LIFE, you live in a trailer park and weigh 400 lbs... and blame the evil "gummit" for all your unhappiness.. |
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