Tuesday, July 01, 2008
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Can Obama Win the South?
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
8:21 AM
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Yesterday, I wrote about how all the talk concerning how Obama could win the Plains states -- and the South -- was nothing more than "hype". Today, Thomas F. Schaller has a very good column that details exactly why Obama cannot win the South.
Following is an excerpt:
The first myth is that African-American turnout in the South is low. Black voters are actually well represented in the Southern electorate: In the 11 states of the former Confederacy, African-Americans were 17.9 percent of the age-eligible population and 17.9 percent of actual voters in 2004, analysis of Census Bureau data shows.
And when socioeconomic status is held constant, black voters go to the polls at higher rates than white voters in the South. In other words, a 40-year-old African-American plumber making $60,000 a year is, on average, more likely to vote than a white man of similar background.
The second myth is that Democratic presidential candidates fare better in Southern states that have large numbers of African-Americans. In fact, the reverse is true, because the more blacks there are in a Southern state, the more likely the white voters are to vote Republican.
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No ticket has won without either a southerner (or border-south) or westerner, since 1940 when two-term FDR dumped his Texan Vice President (from the first two terms) for his Ag. secretary Henry Wallace who was from Iowa.
And the Republicans haven't won the Presidency without a southerner OR westerner since 1928 (when two midwesteners were on the ticket).
If Obama picks a southerner (say Webb, Clark, Sam Nunn, John Breaux, etc.) then look at the 1996 (or 1992) as possible models:
http://www.presidentelect.org/e1996.html#map |
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Check out fivethirtyeight.com and electoral-vote.com.
Obama is ahead in VA and is within 5-10 in TX and GA and even close in NC. He may not win the last three but he'll have long coattails downticket and that's what he's looking for. The Democrats are aiming for 58 seats and 240 house seats in the Congress. With Obama's strong showing and general Republican incompentence we'll get there.
Bye bye hate-filled morons. |
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He won't win the south, but places like VA and NC are seriously in play. The demographics of these states have changed drastically over the last decade, and he may be able to pull modest victories in both states. Hold PA, and OH and steal 2 or 3 western states and FL will be irrelevant. |
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is already gone, just look at the Democratic primary process. |
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wins in the south, because most of the voters are way too conservative for him. I think his camp is just saying that in hopes that Mccain wil spend $$ defending in states that he does not need to defend. Hopefully, the McCain camp will ignore such a silly argument. |
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It is sad how we tend to write off certain states, ie Tennessee is red, California is blue. I feel it takes away from the idea of choice in a representative republic while at the same time I recognize the need for political expediency. I see the whole concept of "one man, one vote" disappearing in my lifetime. It will change for the better or, more likely, it will be mushed into a toxic soup of political correctness and minority appeasement. |
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If he will just go ahead and affirm his eligibility and join the Sons of Confederate Veterans, then he may be able to squeak by.
Didn't know he was eligible? Take a look at "Obama's Obstacles" at my place. You may be surprised! He had relatives on his mother's side who fought for the Confederacy and owned slaves.
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but Obama on the ticket could motivate the white vote to the polls in larger numbers also. |
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