Saturday, December 29, 2007
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Report Live from Your Iowa Precinct Caucus
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Posted by:
Patrick Ruffini at
5:57 AM
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On Iowa Caucus night, I'd like to launch a little experiment in citizen journalism.
Mobile technology allows anybody to communicate from anywhere, including from inside a caucus. Any caucusgoer can become a citizen reporter, relaying key facts to the outside world instantaneously. I'd like to recruit an army of caucus insiders -- both Republicans and Democrats -- to report results instantly and share tidbits on what the campaigns are doing to sway last-minute undecideds. The Caucuses are unique in that one's vote is public, and there is much cajoling that goes on inside -- especially on the Democratic side, where raw vote totals aren't even made public.
There are three ways you can participate:
- Twitter. Sign up for the public instant messaging service Twitter for Caucus night, activate the mobile feature, and text in your Caucus results to 40404, and make sure you include the words "caucus" or "@iowacaucus" in your report. Sign up as a follower of this effort on Twitter as well, and we'll be able to send you mobile alerts with results as your caucus is in progress.
- E-mail. E-mail in your results, reports, and tips to caucusresults@gmail.com through your Blackberry or PDA. E-mail is easier for a lot of folks than texting (this is true for me, old fogey that I am).
- Text/SMS. I am also considering making a phone number available for text messages from folks with regular phones who don't want to get the Twitter updates. Please email caucusresults@gmail.com to sign up and request access to this number.
These reports will be relayed in our caucus night coverage. If there are enough reporters, we'll also be publishing aggregate results we've received for the Republican and Democratic caucuses (including pre-viability numbers for the Democrats). We'll also have Iowa demographic statistics at our fingertips to be able to appropriately weight the results if necessary.
If you're planning on participating in this in any way, just shoot over an e-mail. If you're on Facebook, please join our group.
Why do this? Frankly, the media exit polls (in this case entrance polls) have shown they can't be trusted, even in 2006. In many ways, they were just as inaccurate as 2004 (Jim Webb taking Virginia by 7, for instance). I'd like to see if this (admittedly unscientific) process can come close or do better. Since the caucuses happen in a compressed time period and a closed environment, there is little risk that publishing early numbers will affect the outcome. We couldn't do this in a normal primary election, for example.
To join the fun and get the final word on the Iowa caucuses, email and follow us.
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no really bad news for Willard overnight.
Friday was not a terrible day either. yes I know that RG is back in front in Rasmussen and Willard is 4th or 5th but ... only one poll.
and yes, the McCain ad's in NH are pretty devastating but Willard has all that $$$ to fight back ... so let's not victimize him.
and finally, Bhutto will help McCain, HC and RG but not Willard.
as to InTrade and IEM overnights on nomination odds
IEM - Willard has lost his lead to RG but it is really a dead heat
InTrade - stable overall
National - RG up by 7% and JM coming fast on second place Willard
States - no real change.
Next week I predict
Willard will win Iowa (been saying this for a month) but first four will be bunched ... so no real up.
HC will win Iowa by surprising margin and lock up the nomination and this hurts Willard.
RCP will show Willard slipping nationally and Rasmussen will show him at 10% on Jan 2.
Willard will get creamed in NH and then Michigan and Willard will be de facto history but his money will keep him alive. |
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the endorsement of the tough anti-illegal sheriff from Arizona yesterday. I think this means a lot more than McCain's getting all the liberal newpapers behind him. Huck's busy this morning trying to deal with the fallout of the foreign policy gaffes.McCain has burned too many bridges with conservatives and Huck is busy self torching.To show what a miserable old creep McCain is he's relying on the media to do his attacking on Romney while he stays above the fray.Then they get to attack Mitt for going negative. Even with all this Mitt's core of support is holding up. People need to reject media bias and un fairness. |
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tossing back some of your WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYY off confidence about Romney defeats back'atcha, Dude. Long haul, he'll kick your A**. |
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homeschoolers in Iowa dumping the Huckster? Heard some talk, but not much in the way of details. Can anyone fill in? |
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Would not be the first time I was wrong! If MR loses Iowa, then he loses NH by 20%. If HC wins Iowa by 5% or more, JM margin goes to 25%+. Mich and SC ... no longer matter for MR.
I still can't conceive how MR loses to MH in Iowa with all the bucks MR has thrown at Iowa, organization and willingness to say plus do anything.
MH is a really poor candidate once you get beyond the funny lines. Not stupid but just out of his league.
JM is far more dangerous to MR but also has a tendancy to implode / explode.
I stick with my original predictions ... MR is de facto out after Michigan
NEW "futures market" - Rasmussen.
National to win nomination
DEMS
HC way way ahead
GOP
MR (23%)
JM (18.3%)
RG (30.3%)
States
Iowa - MH by a lot
NH - MR close
as to someone else's comment about "lberal" newspapers and McCain ... find me more than two 'liberal" newspapers in NH or Mass (where I think Willard says he is from) that endorsed Mccain?
of course, JM uses free media ... and really well. Willard can throw zillions of bucks at him from his own resources ... which McCain does not have. Duh!
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MR will win Iowa and NH. Hard to stop him after that. And it's much better for him to go up against Hillary than Obama. Obama may be weak, but he is charismatic. Hillary is anything but. I hope she does win in Iowa. |
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Each are tools promoted by the MSM in its effort to derail/defeat Romney.
They know in the months leading up to the general election they cannot afford to have a Romney (especially with Sarah Palin or JC Watts for VP) running againts Billary or Oprah Obama. |
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The voters can actually SEE MITT IN ACTION -- actually fighting (rather than merely campaigning/speechifying) -- and this is very significant for voters seeing a battle-tested and battle-succeeding Mitt. |
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Patrick
since you are a Rudy guy, can you explain this InTrade trend to me?
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 30.0 30.4 30.3 142180 +0.8
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 20.7 21.0 21.0 109295 -1.4
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 19.0 19.2 19.0 168028 +0.2
Have no idea why spread for RG has increased steadily from 1% to present 9.3% over last 5 days?
JM is now within 2% of MR for second place.
I hear the final Des Moines Register Poll is not going to look good for MR ... and it will be wrong. Nobody with MR's resources could lose to a dullard like MH! |
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out of her ladyship's withers. I'm absolutely convinced that Mitt's the one they fear by far the most. He will get ever stonger and more versatile and nimble as he goes the distance. Hillary is not going to become easier to take over the long haul. Au contraire. Her inability to roll with the punches, unrehersed and "real" will be more and more difficult to digest. The true "fatigue" which she and hubby put our country through will--with his ever present, narcissistic aid--be another drama to remind Americans that we don't want this dreadful joke again. Bad enough in the dull times of the 90's. We cannot afford them in these massive new times. |
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If only you are right (from your lips to God's ears as they say). I would feel a whole lot more confortable with Mitt Romney (even though I prefer McCain, Giuliani and Thompson) if I thought he could beat Hillary.
While Hillary is definitely a flawed, scorned and twisted woman, she is going to be a tough adversary. Her negatives are super-high, but then again so are Mitt's. While Mitt is a more moral person (by far) he cannot really challenge Hillary on foriegn policy (they both have little experience). What we are missing to is that if she manages to bring on someone like Barak Obama (I don't think Edwards helps her as VP) she is going to have some very strong dynamics going for her. Additional women who have never voted will vote for the first female President. African Americans will vote overwhelmingly and in greater numbers if a black candidate is on the ticket.
The dynamics favor the Democrats this time around. You should worry about that. |
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I think Obama is a very decent guy with very flawed policies. Barak and Michelle Obama are just as swqeaky clean as the Romneys in their personal lives. Obama's aura of credibility, along with a collection of government handout "sweets," will be the gingerbread house where Hillary Clinton waits for her next victims.
Let's hope Hillary is so insecure that she does not ask Obama to run (or Obama does us a favor and declines her offer). |
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I keep hammering at the Mitt+Condi'08 ideal in my dream team combination. I hadn't thought about it as any kind of counterpunch to an Obama addition to a Hillary ticket, but hmmmmmmmm. It would take a major shift in Clintonian egomania to swallow a true high-profiler like Barack sharing the ticket.
But, maybe, as Joe suggests, they might offer it to him out of fear of loss without him and shear craven hunger. They'd be thinking(off screen)that they could diminish him after the 'win'. In Clinton World, attention isn't shared. Nor is credit. I think of Condi as a massive plus to either a Mitt or a Rudy nomination. She has a resume that Clinton+Obama x 15 would have trouble getting near. And, she's beautiful, Southern roots, concert level pianist and professional level figure skater. And, knows every significant world leader on a first name basis. AND, is at perfect ease with alpha-male men of power. |
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