The figures gathered below contain several crucial revelations:
1- Republicans always win big majorities of self-described conservatives--even losing Republicans like Dole and McCain.
2- The ONLY Republicans who win are those who manage to split moderate voters. For instance, Ronald Reagan got 54% of the moderate vote in 1984 and earned a 49 state landslide. Meanwhile, even those Republican nominees who win big among "conservatives" don't necessarily win elections. McCain did better among self-described conservatives in 2008 (78%) than Reagan did in 1980 (73%), but he still lost the election. In fact, McCain beat Obama by 58 points among conservatives, but lost among moderates by 21 points, and so lost the election.
(See graphic after the jump)
(Graph prepared by Karmen Frisvold)
| 2008 |
| Pct. Voters | McCain | Obama |
| | Conservative | 34% | 78% | 20% |
| | Moderate | 44% | 39% | 60% |
| | Liberal | 22% | 10% | 89% |
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| | 2004 |
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| Bush | Kerry |
| | Conservative | 34% | 84% | 15% |
| | Moderate | 45% | 45% | 54% |
| | Liberal | 21% | 13% | 85% |
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| | 2000 |
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| Bush | Gore |
| | Conservative | 29% | 82% | 17% |
| | Moderate | 50% | 45% | 53% |
| | Liberal | 20% | 13% | 81% |
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| | 1996 |
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| Dole | Clinton |
| | Conservative | 34% | 72% | 20% |
| | Moderate | 47% | 33% | 57% |
| | Liberal | 19% | 12% | 81% |
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| | 1992 |
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| Bush Sr. | Clinton | Perot | | Conservative | 30% | 64% | 18% | 18% | | Moderate | 49% | 31% | 48% | 21% | | Liberal | 21% | 14% | 68% | 18% |
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| | 1988 |
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| Bush Sr. | Dukakis |
| | Conservative | 33% | 81% | 19% |
| | Moderate | 45% | 49% | 51% |
| | Liberal | 18% | 18% | 82% |
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| | 1984 |
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| Reagan | Mondale |
| | Conservative | 33% | 82% | 18% |
| | Moderate | 42% | 54% | 46% |
| | Liberal | 16% | 29% | 71% |
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| | 1980 |
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| Reagan | Carter | Anderson | | Conservative | 28% | 73% | 23% | 4% | | Moderate | 46% | 49% | 43% | 8% | | Liberal | 17% | 28% | 60% | 12% |
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