Wednesday, September 17, 2008
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Palin Holds the Key to Michigan?
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
4:30 PM
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As it becomes more obvious that the election will come down to traditional battleground states such as Ohio and Michigan, this afternoon, I decided to start talking to some folks with an expertise in these states.
My first call was to my good friend John Dunagan, who served as the Michigan state director for the Bush-Cheney campaign in '04. I was surprised to hear that he believes Sarah Palin holds the key to McCain's chances.
Following is his analysis ...
Michigan is a Democratic state. Wayne County (home of Detroit) accounted for 18 percent of the vote in 2004. With Obama on the ticket this time around, you can expect African-American turn-out to increase. This time around, Wayne County might account for as much as 20 percent of the vote.
What is more, despite the fact that years of incompetent rule by Democrats (including the infamous Mayor of Detroit) has given Michigan, perhaps the worst economy in the nation, in 2006 Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) was re-elected by 16 points, and that same year Governor Jennifer Granholm was also easily re-elected by 14 points -- despite being out-spent by Dick DeVoss.
But there is hope ... I was surprised to learn that Michigan has 12 minor league hockey teams -- and is the number one state in the nation for snowmobile ownership (in 2004, Dunagan helped start "Snowmobilers for Bush").
For this reason, Dunagan believes that Sarah Palin's candidacy is uniquely important in Michigan.
In order for McCain to have a chance to win, Dunagan believes McCain will have to find a way to counter a huge turnout in Detroit. This will be very difficult, he tells me, but Palin could help McCain do so. He would have to start by winning some working-class counties that John Kerry won (Kalamazoo and Ingham), and then win big in Macomb County (home of the "Reagan Democrat"). Bush won Macomb, but McCain will have to out-perform Bush and "run up the score" if he is to have a chance to win Michigan.
Clearly, Dunagan tells me, Michigan will be a tough state for McCain to win, but for Mid and Northern Michigan, Palin's cultural connections may allow McCain to pick up some working-class white votes that McCain would otherwise leave on the table. It will be very interesting, but when you consider the importance of Michigan, the Palin pick now appears even more sagacious than many initially thought ...
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I've thought for a while that this election could be won or lost in the Norh (MI, MN, WI, etc), and Palin goes a long way toward that aim. |
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I'm a registared democrat and I would think that all the Michigan voters who voted in the primary and had their votes taken away would be voting for McCain. If Obama did not want your vote counted then he does not deserve your vote now. I was a Hillary supporter and even donated money to her campaigne but I will be voting McCain-Lalin in November. |
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This is exactly what Bill Steigerwald column was about, "Why Team Obama Won't Win Win Pennsylvania". McCain's Straight Talk has a limit. I hope they defend VA as well. VA may be easier task than MI |
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McCain has so very many issues that he could be using to bury Obama but isn't.
#1 How about the fact that Obama pays the women on his staff 78% of the salary of the men on his staff. McCain's numbers are the exact opposite. Yet Obama is out there saying that Mccain is against equal pay for women. McCain says nothing.
#2 Both McCain and Bush tried to reign in Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac in 2004 and 2005. They were rebuffed by congressional dems. We know why now. The top four on their donor lists are Dodd, Obama, Kerry, and Clinton. Addd to this the fact that two former CEO's of that mess are now economic advsors to Obama. Add to this the Charlie Rangel mess and you have a series of speeches about standing against the culture of corruption. This would especially be effective if Sarah talked about it. McCain says nothing. |
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Sarah ROCKS! You go, Girl. |
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Romney may be able to help McCain in Michigan also. Who knows? A little here, a little there. Anything could happen.
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why isent actually on the ticket? Oh ya. I forgot about the BIGOTS who gave us this loser and his arm candy.
I hope Romney keeps his distance from this one. |
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I read this somplace else on TH, which is quickly tryin to put the lipstick on the elephant in the room.
AIG and the McCain campaign are joined at the hip (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=azcHbAqTqQes&refer=us)
"McCain's campaign has ties to AIG. Harvard economics Professor Martin Feldstein, whose advice has been sought by McCain, is on the board of directors. One of McCain's top fundraisers, Wayne Berman, is registered to lobby for AIG, congressional records show. AIG paid Berman's firm, Ogilvy Government Relations, $100,000 during the first six months of the year."
"McCain's congressional liaison, John Green, formerly lobbied for AIG at Ogilvy. He has taken a leave of absence from the firm to work on the McCain campaign." |
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with whom, other than evangalicals who think that he's the second comming?
This conservative mom will NOT be voting for this loser ticket. I want McCain down in flames, just like he took the forestall down. (oh sorry. Can't mention bad stuff about the king, now can we?) |
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Yes, I too packed the kids in the car and drove into traffic and stood in line to vote in the Michigan Primary- and Obama fought to make sure my vote didn't count. Newsflash # 1 - it does now!
Every intelligent voter in Michigan knows that the primary race would have had an entirely different face had our votes mattered from the start.
While Obama actually has the "audacity" to think that women won't vote for Palin because Hillary has tried to campaign for him now, but he's wrong. Newsflash # 2- She's only playing the game. She clearly still believes you're grossly inadequate, and so do we. She understands that you are far from repentant for the way you treated her- and they way you and your minions are treating Palin now, and so do we.
Newsflash #3- He's taking the black vote for granted as well. Not all of us are too lazy to think for ourselves. Those of us in the black community that still goes to church every week knows what a dangerous fool this man is, and we know that electing him will actually put all the gains we've made as a people since Dr. King, upside down and backwards on its head.
Mr. McCain and Mrs. Palin are far better choices for our community than Obama, regardless of what color his daddy might have been. |
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Between you and Amanda Carpenter, I have some news on the Presidential Campaign.
Heaven knows the "old media" major networks don't report anymore. At least TH does.
I've always lived in points south. Learning of these northern-state campaign factors is quite interesting.
Almost makes me want to go ice fishing. |
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"No wonder McCain doesn’t use e-mail! The guy is a genius."
H/T to Commentator Mike K at Patterico for that in response to news Sarah Palin's personal email was hacked! |
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Hi,
I wanted to draw your attention to this important petition that I recently signed:
"Impeach Senator Barack Obama"
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/obamaimpeachment?e
I really think this is an important cause, and I'd like to encourage you to add your signature, too. It's free and takes less than a minute of your time.
Thanks!
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/obamaimpeachment?e
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302,000 registered snowmobilers, more than any other state
156 ice rinks with lots of Hockey moms, more than any other state
#2 in hunting licenses, only second to Pennsylvania
the home of the "Reagan Democrats", blue collar, conservative and pretty independent voters...I like to call the "God, guns and guts" kind of voters.
McCain-Palin ticket is all about Michigan and Michigan values!
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Yeah, uh huh, sure you are..if we buy that you are a conservative then we are surefire to bid on
that bridge in Brooklyn.
That was the FORESTAL, a carrier, McCain didn't sink it, it didn't sink at all doofus, if you had any integrity if you didn't know what happened you'd have researched it. A rocket from another JeT accidently fired into
McCain's plane, causing a fire that killed some 134 sailors. McCain was in his plane awaiting takeoff clearance, and he barely escaped with his life.
One would think that trolls would get their talking points correctly.. |
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Do some target shooting (even better if the targets were OBL).
Hold speeches in Hockey Rinks.
Hold a snow-machine rally with the first snow fall with Todd.
REPEAT in OH & PA.
Also, turn the "shots" around. Hold up a stuffed animal pig with lipstick and let the crowds applaud.
Give a rousing speech about being a parent, the issues of Hollywood attacking the family. At the end of the message Sarah should say, "Hollywood - I have a message for you!" And then she should brush off her shoulders.
Take her critics straight on and let them know she's not a wilting flower; that she will not sit down, shut up, or be belittled. |
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Sarah should use humor more and more.
Like Harvard jokes. You know how Fast Barky puts his head up in the air and tilts it skyward?
"I heard it from an Alumni source that ever since Harvard, Obama has been the only man he's ever known that struts while sitting down."
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become an republican and you will not have to answer asubpoena from congress or state. |
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Heavily black, heavily unemployed Detroit is the albatross around the neck of Michigan and why it's unlikely McCain can win. Oh yeah, add all the Democratic-supported voter fraud of dead people, convicts, etc...and McCain needs a 4 point edge in the polls before we can even hope for a close race. what saddens me is that at least 10% of the 94% of blacks who are going to vote for Obama do actually know better, but will anyway out of nothing more than pig-headed racial solidarity.
Steigerwald's analysis is just wishful thinking by someone from Pittsburgh. "Pride without reason" should have been an official city slogan years back. (Could apply very well to Philly also...) |
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I can say that while there are good things about our town, we are by no means a great place to be. We've been under democratic rule since before I was born. Though I do feel that having been to Philly we have a one up on them. (Rendell left that place a complete sh*thole before taking over Tom Ridge's position.)
My county (including Pittsburgh) is primarily democratic and I'm not sure why...I think it has been forever and in a more conventional sense of democratic than "far left liberal." So they just vote with their party no matter what, even if it isn't what they believe.
If McCain and Palin battle hard enough, they can get Allegheny county just like they can take Michigan. |
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bitter bitter romney is gone get over it palin rocks and is a great choice |
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Gads! At least learn how to spell the ship's name. It is "FORRESTAL" -- named after the first Secretary of Defense, JamesV. Forrestal, who was SECDEF under President Truman. FORRESTAL was also known as "FID" -- a play on words,i.e., First In Defense. FID was the first supercarrier -- SARATOGA was the second.
You might do a little research before you mouth off about McCain. He had nothing to do with setting FID on fire. His plane was on the far side of the ship from where the missile was fired. He was also the only pilot in his squadron who volunteered to crossdeck to another carrier, rather than being transferred ashore, thence, to the homeport of his squadron. He was transferred to ORISKANY -- and was flying off her deck when he was shot down over Haoni.
All of the above has been recorded in dozens of places. It is not so very good, Buccaneer, to believe everything you read in KOS and other like smear blogs. |
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In reading over the many articles here which are great ( so long as there from McCain-Palin supporters). Yet I dont'here anything about Homeschoolers in America. Where do the candidates stand on that issue and what or how will they change the present regulations and policies regarding homeschooling? Education is always mentioned, but never "homeschooling". Why?
Especially in Michigan, homeschoolers represent a big percentage of conservative and middle ground voters at the polls. Get the Campaign to address this topic in a rally in UP michigan along with a snowmobile race. Get involved with Michigan.
We lived in Otsego for 4 years, and Granholm made the economy worse from day one. Another blogger referred to her as 'the barbie in Lansing'; Im sure she could have found a more appripriate suitor than Barbie. Barbie is too cute and doesnt have a mole on her face. |
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In reading over the many articles here which are great ( so long as there from McCain-Palin supporters). Yet I dont'here anything about Homeschoolers in America. Where do the candidates stand on that issue and what or how will they change the present regulations and policies regarding homeschooling? Education is always mentioned, but never "homeschooling". Why?
Especially in Michigan, homeschoolers represent a big percentage of conservative and middle ground voters at the polls. Get the Campaign to address this topic in a rally in UP michigan along with a snowmobile race. Get involved with Michigan.
We lived in Otsego for 4 years, and Granholm made the economy worse from day one. Another blogger referred to her as 'the barbie in Lansing'; Im sure she could have found a more appripriate suitor than Barbie. Barbie is too cute and doesnt have a mole on her face. |
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Palin is a failure, the backlash has started and we will now suffer because of McCain's tendency for rush judgements. She only appeals to right wing evangelicals. I hate to inform the dittoheads here but,many of us Republicans are educated free thinkers. It is no wonder that staunch conservative intellectuals(Will,Noonan,Buchannon,Rove ect)have grave misgivings about her lack of credibility. We can still steal this election away from defeat but Palin has to be hidden. By the way, who sent McCain to go get booed out of the building by auto workers? That's poor campaign mamagement. |
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The anointed one is now a negative for the Democrats. But that is no great news. The crisis in the financial markets is very scary to working people. Quite understandably their paramount fear is loss of their jobs. Instinctively they will turn to the Dems who can be trusted to keep printing money so as to keep their flock at work doing whatever. The financial authorities have already begun the furious printing.
The final result will be inflation. But that'll only be down the line and hit only the retired old folks on SS.
Obama himself is very scary. I see his "logo" on signs - to replace the Great Seal of the United States and soon the flag. Soon we'll see it on armbands that the "national civilian security force" will wear as they `patrol' the inner city streets taking protection money from storekeepers or breaking windows. The police will turn their backs.
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Sarah Palin shouldn't be the choice for VP. She should be the president. Period. I refuse to vote for Obama, and I can't bring myself to vote for McCain. He's not a real conservative. Instead, I'm voting with my heart: Sarah Palin. I'm writing her in for president. |
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could be either Qweenmum or PC. They were both ga ga over Romney. They do not take losing well. Their bitterness is apparent and most likely self-destructive. |
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I think for the next few weeks people will flip flop about her because they are just beginning to know her and her record. I am not sure records seem to matter in this election, but to me something much more important does matter. We can assume that both parties have their fair share of crooks. The longer they stay the better the chance that an elected official will eventually sell their soul to get a favor. It is in the best interest of each elected official to get as much money for their own state and thus the reason Washington is corrupt and continues to embrace earmarks and use lobbiests. It is a race to have the most power to get the most money. The only chance that Washington could "change" and start in a new direction is for new blood to come there with a fresh perspective and loads of energy to plod slowly through the debris. We can't talk about expanding government or giving tax breaks or introducing a new healthcare plan without cleaning up before we turn the corner in a new direction. McCain/Palin is the only ticket that at least is attempting to talk with both parties admitting the filth that lies ahead. Obama/Biden either refuses or can't see that their party is equally responsible for the Washington corruption. The election of 2006 was a signal to the republicans that they had lost the voters trust and voters were giving the other party a chance to be different. That decision proved to be business as usual and now we see that both parties plan to do nothing about key issues. We are out of parties to turn to and so we must force the bad guys out in both parties and look for candidates that want to work for the people, which means putting country first. |
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Frank writes, "Instead, I'm voting with my heart: Sarah Palin. I'm writing her in for president."
Frank, if you do that, Sarah will go back to Alaska and stay there. If you want her to be President (someday), then vote for McCain and let Sarah be VP for a few years. If so, in 2012 she'll definately be unstoppable. Writing her name in is just like writing in your own name, Ron Paul will get more votes than either of you.
Please don't waste your vote dude. We are going to need your vote to take Obama out of the game. I believe Sarah would agree with me- vote for McCain!
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After a couple of Democrat Governors totally shipwrecked Michigan, how does the DNC expect Obama to carry the state. Considering how Obama literally tried to make Michigan "shut up" and disrespected their votes, how does Obama expect their loyalty to him as the Democrat party nominee? Look at how quickly he was willing to disregard the votes of Americans. Maybe in Chicago and the rest of Illinois, votes don't really matter, but to the rest of the country, they do matter. It does bother us that elections are stolen. Wasn't one of the highlights on Obama's resume that he worked with Acorn getting people to register to vote? On one hand, votes matter; on the other hand, disregard Michigan and Florida. Obama is either confused or radically disrespects "the will of the people."
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Write-ins are a wasted vote, many localities don't even count them. Any third party candidate will do, whoever appears on your ballot. The important thing is for the RNC to be able to see where their votes went. Electing McCain will only convince them that going left is the correct strategy. |
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Michigan will play a key role in this election.
McCain/Palin need to start reminding the Democrat voters in Michigan that early on Obama didn't need their votes. Hmmm...it looks like now he does.
With Detroit losing population and Granholm and Co (Carl Levin Debbie S etc...) running this state into the dirt, McCain Palin have at least a fighting chance of a win here.
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Obama is turning into a tall skinny Al Sharpton in more and more people's minds. The horrible media assault on Palin has alienated a lot of middle class and blue collar women who were shocked to see her children attacked in the media. Obama sneering that McCain cant use a computer when it turns out that his arms were broken when he was serving our country is an example of how offensive and stupid the Dems are becoming. Clowns like Sandra Berhardt aren't helping either. This is not going to be close--no matter how many phony ballots Obama's pals at ACORN manage to cast in Detroit (which will have a 130% turnout this time). |
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Sarah Palin is a breath of fresh air to citizens all across this country. Washington politicians are getting very tiresome. |
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I was hoping that McCain would pick a conservative to counter his kneejerk liberal tendencies.
I never heard of Sarah Palin before, but the more I hear about this woman the more it looks like McCain hit a home run by picking her.
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Sarah and The First Dude need to do a bus tour of Michigan. Forget Detroit, you can't compete with the race lords there. and the UAW people continue to be so stupid they can't see that it's the UAW that is the SOURCE of their trouble.
But I grew up in West Michigan, and there is such a strong Republican base there. Plus, if they went to Northern Lower Michigan and the U.P., they would capture the hearts and minds of all of the hockey playing, snowmobile-loving, cross country skiing, winter weather mavens plus the hunters and fishermen all over the rest of the state (outside Detroit).
I do not understand why the people of Michigan keep electing these Democrats who have run the state right into the ground! |
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SHE IS ALL AMERICAN,SHE IS FOR REAL!GLITTER IS FALLING OFF THE OTHER BHO DUDE! |
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Speaking as a republican in North central MI, I can tell you McCain/Palin is already highly popular up here.
Last week in an 80 mile round trip the wife and I counted 8-1- McCain/Palin yard signs for ever Obama sign. In 2004 it was the other way around with 8 kerry signs for every Bush.
Want to wrap up MI? forego the rallies around detroit, and hit places like Midland, Traverse City, and Gaylord. Maybe then I can actually make it to a rally and bring lots of fence sitters with me.
If detroit seceded from the state, MI would be a Red state!
Oh, and for my2cents and Blanco, Go bother the idjuts on Kos, we're not buying "fake republicans" today.
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Palin is wonderful! Look at this clip! She really supports Women.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MybPhpEydZo&NR=1
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