Monday, August 27, 2007
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ID-SEN: Possible Replacements
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Posted by:
Patrick Ruffini at
9:34 PM
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All that seems clear right now is that Senator Larry Craig will not be invited back for another six years in Washington, be that through resignation (as Hugh advocates), retirement, or defeat at the ballot box next November (or in the primary).
Idaho statutes call for the Governor to appoint a replacement in the event a vacancy, with a subsequent special election to fill out the remainder of the term. That would coincide with the regular election for the seat, which happens next year anyway. Idaho's Governor, C.L. "Butch" Otter, is a Republican.
As the second most Republican state in the Union, Republicans should have no problem finding a suitable candidate to replace Craig and defeat former Congressman Larry LaRocco in the general. A few potential replacements jump out.
Congressman Mike Simpson has represented the 2nd district for 5 terms. He has been re-elected with well north of 60% every time, including 64% in 2006 when Bill Sali struggled to gain election in the 1st. The Almanac of American Politics calls him a bit moderate for a Western Republican, and his lifetime ACU rating is 88.
Lt. Governor Jim Risch briefly served as Governor last year after Dirk Kempthorne left to be Interior Secretary, and could have easily made a run for the top job. Instead, he stood down for Butch Otter, and returned to the No. 2 slot after the election. He enjoyed a strong approval spread during his brief tenure. Watch for Otter to reward Risch's loyalty in the event of a vacancy.
Or could Kempthorne be the next Bush cabinet secretary to leave, to go back to the Senate which he left 10 years ago? Kempthorne is an Idaho institution, having served as Boise Mayor, U.S. Senator, and Governor. At a relatively youthful 56 (for someone with that resume), he could be looking for something to do next.
UPDATE: According to this Kossack, Otter and Risch are rivals, but that may not stop Risch from getting the nod. Also, Craig himself sounded pretty lukewarm about running again two weeks ago.
Bottom line: with the deep Republican bench in Idaho, there are a number of plausible candidates in a primary or for the appointment. With an open seat, this becomes a generic Republican vs. Democrat race in one of the only states where the President sports a positive approval rating. We won't have a Conrad Burns scenario here.
Let's act as the open-source back room. Take a few minutes to research these guys, and then vote: Who should replace Craig? Vote here.
UPDATE II: Idaho conservative blogger also calls for Craig's resignation.
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