Monday, January 21, 2008
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A Thompson Candidacy Helps McCain
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
12:04 PM
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Several weeks ago, after Fred Thompson went after Mike Huckabee in that debate, some folks began positing the theory that Fred Thompson was in the race solely to benefit John McCain.
At the time, I thought this was highly conspiratorial. After all, I reasoned, Fred Thompson might do well in South Carolina ...
He did not.
As Thompson's chances have dwindled, it has become more and more obvious that (whether accidental, or intentional), his candidacy has benefitted McCain by taking votes away from Huckabee and Romney.
And because it is unlikely that a Thompson endorsement would transfer a lot of votes to McCain, It is reasonable to assume that Thompson does McCain more good in Florida by staying in the race for an additional week.
Today, Fred Thompson is in Tennessee , seeing his mom -- and presumably deciding whether or not to stay in the race ...
With the GOP race in flux, it is possible Thompson will stay in the race because he honestly believes anything could happen on Feb. 5. But it's also possible that -- even if he wants to get out -- he will stay in the race one more week ...
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I have a lot of respect for Thompson. He has been my second favorite candidate (after Duncan Hunter) throughout the Primary. But I have to admit, as I have observed his entire approach to this campaign, I think the man's heart is not in this, and I don't blame him one bit. I think the timing is all wrong for him. At his age, his energy level is not high enough to handle the outrageous demands of the office of POTUS. What energy the man has remaining he should devote to his lovely young wife and their two precious little children. He's not indispensible for the voters, but he is for his family.
McCain also lacks the energy and vitality for the job. That wasn't the case in 2000, but it is now. Sometimes his hot temper is mistaken for energy, but that's usually the wrong kind of energy for the office of POTUS.
The other old guy in the race, Ron Paul, seems less worn out by the campaign than do Thompson and McCain. At times he seems invigorated by the grassroots support he is getting, but it might not be enough energy for the long haul. As much as I respect his genuine devotion to reducing the scope and size of this morbidly obese federal government, I have my doubts that he would be driven enough for four to eight years to carry out the revolutionary changes he proposes.
No, I think the job of POTUS nowadays is for a younger man. Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani seem to have the necessary vitality, though each fails to measure up as an ideal candidate.
This is going to be a tough election, no matter who is nominated. Better that it should be taken on by a young, energetic mind.
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Did you hear Rush today? He said there is no true conservative in the race. He said he had a problem with Thompson in regard to McCain-Feingold.
This is what I have been saying all along. Fred is no more conservative than Romney. But Fred is far less qualified in so many obvious ways.
I'm glad that polls show Fred's support moving to Romney. Its the only logical choice.
If Fred endorses McCain, then he isn't the man everyone claims he is. |
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A Geogia state senator, who was part of the draft Fred movement, was formerly organizer for Thompson. He has now switched his support to Romney.
blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/01/21/a_georgia_organizer_for_thomps.html
Hopefully other Thompson supporters will see the wisdom in this. It is painful sometimes to give up on your guy and switch to another, but as conservatives we MUST coalese around the most convervative AND viable candidate. I won't disagree with the Fred is the truest conservative. But Romney is infinitely more viable at this point and he is very close to Fred on conservative issues. |
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Fred is in because FRED wants a TRUE CONSERVATIVE to be our POTUS.
Fred is in because there is NO other CONSERVATIVE CHOICE.
Fred is in because HE FEELS A DUTY TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.
AND AS LONG AS FRED IS IN- HE IS MY CANDIDATE! |
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I hope he stays in. He's funny in more ways than one. |
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Had an interesting story about a similar scenario:
Huckabee.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8003.html
Huck in his concession speech seemed to indicate his warm fuzzies for McCain, perhaps McCain is dangling the VP slot in front of both Fred AND Huck? "Stay in it long enough to derail Romney in Florida and Super Tuesday so I clinch the bid and there are good things to come for you."
Undoubtably Huck and Fred Supporters would mostly flock to Romney at this point.
Romney has his work cut out for him if he's essentially playing against 3 allied opponents. |
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If Fred's supporters are true conservatives they would assess the remaining field, the looming DEMs, and come to one conclusion. As a conservative I am going to vote 4 Romney now. Any sort of a)I won't vote, or b) I'll write in Fred, or even c) I'll still vote for him on principle is sooo foolish and short sighted. The DEMs and MSM are praying "Conservatives are that dumb and divided." Fred had his chance and S. Carolina was better suited for him to do well than ANY other state aside from Tennessee. Loosing big in S. Carolina should compel a) Fred to drop out for the good of the conservative movement and b) Fred supporters to get behind Romney. I was for Fred getting in and for a while was split between Fred and Romney. The thing that finally put in the Romney camp was THE ECONOMY. We are headed into the tank economically. We need Romney at he helm. Conservatives with a brain now support Romney. |
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"Only Rudy and Mitt can win once the real election season kicks off."
By what analysis can you credibly claim Rudy even has a chance?
And you give him a chance over the others actually doing much better than him?
Why? National polls? What a joke.
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All the others have reversed themselves on their actions in previous years. McCain is just plain a liar on immigration, plus he would be a dictator-tyrant if elected.
Fred looked at the field and decided that a real conservative had to enter the race. He didn't want the power, as all the others do; he saw that only he was willing to serve to preserve our country and culture. I am sure he has not lost that belief but has to weigh if we will support him. Oh yeah!
NEVER GIVE UP NEVER GIVE UP NEVER GIVE UP-
GO FRED! |
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Huckabee stayed in the race to take voters away from Thompson. |
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I don't think Thomspon was/is in this to help McCain; however, it has had that effect. Thompson has taken some votes from Huckabee. It seems reasonable to assume that w/o Thomspson in the race, Huckabee would have won SC. It looks like most of Thomspon's supporters will go to Romney if Thompson bows out now.
At the same time, Huckabee is also helping McCain. The more socially conservative wing of the party seems to be divided b/w Huck, Thompson, & Romney. If Huck and Thompson are gone, obviously Romney will benefit. |
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The Stupid Party
The RNC wants an amnesty candidate.
Another amnesty will result in Democrat majorities for decades, or until they are supplanted by the La Raza Party, why doesn't the RNC know that? How stupid do you have to be to import voters for the opposition at the same time you alienate your own voters? Nominating any of the amnesty trio (McCain, Huckabee, Rudy) is a losing proposition, we will not support them. If the GOP intends to surrender our sovereignty and abandon the rule of law, they will find in November 2008, that they still have their big money/cheap labor donors, but they do not have voters. GOP-RIP |
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How is 2 second places, 3 1st places and 1 4 place being detected as a phony?
You don't like him. You think he is a phony.
Clearly far more people that voted for Thompson, or Hucklebee (possibly combined) disagree with you.
Of course if we put either McCain, Thompson, or Hucklbee up there the minority is something you'll have to get used to.
Only Rudy and Mitt can win once the real election season kicks off. |
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What evidence do you have that Mitt will finish 3rd or 4th? |
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spinning. Mitt will finish 3rd or 4th, Spanish speakers can also detect a phoney when they see one. |
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http://poll.pollcode.com/3U06
For Fred Supporters: If Fred Thompson drops out of the race, which major candidate would you support?
Selection Votes
Rudy Giuliani 15% 604
Mike Huckabee 5% 189
John McCain 7% 303
Mitt Romney 73% 3,022
4,118 votes total
Go Mitt! Stop McCain Now! |
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So Thompson goes out there raises 10 million dollars, does debates, and runs around South Carolina to help McCain?
I don't by it. First of all we have no ideas exactly how Thompson votes will go. Even if only 1/3 went ot McCain and 2/3 went to other opponents it still would have not huge bearing on the race.
In New Hampshite and Michigan Thompson's vote totals were fairly negligible.
A better case could be made if you say that Huckabee is in the race to help McCain. His voters are a specific group, but even then there has been no consistency among where their votes have gone either. It is unlikely this group would vote for Guiliani, and looking at Iowa a good case they would not vote over 50% for Romney.
In other words these conspiracy theories hold little water. Romney won Michigan on his message and Nevada and Wyoming on mobilization of mormons and serious campaigning. McCain won New Hampshire based on a mix of independents and war conservatives. He won south carolina on veterans, independents and non-evangelical conservatives, splitting them with Thompson.
In other words this is all bunk. There is no candidate who can help McCain, only hurt him and in particular Guiliani is the biggest hurt to the front runner. He is the only candidate standing between McCain and victory in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Florida. In other words along with Arizona the whole enchilada. |
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Clearly he pulls votes from the Huckster. Those votes would not have gone to Romney anyway.
So the thing is -- if Fred drops, how many votes would get added to the Huckster? If Fred had dropped before SC, would the Hound have beat McCain?
Better that he stays in through Super Tuesday and let the chips fall where they may. Romney's deep pockets will probably win most Super Tuesday states anyway -- McCain probably won't do well when independents can't cross over and only Republicans can vote -- and Fred staying in will take Huckleberry down. |
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Fred has a good reputation and is respected by most members of the Party. He needs to bow out graciously or at least bow out of FL where he can not win. |
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