Sunday, November 05, 2006
|
|
Momentum Shifting? Come on Home, Baby!
|
|
Posted by:
Mary Katharine Ham at
1:33 PM
|
|
Are Republicans coming home close to the elections? I figuref there'd be some of that as the voting booth loomed closer, but an 8-point shift on the generic ballot question?
Bush job approval: 43%, up from 40 (Registered Voters)
Generic Likely Voter, Dem +6 (down from Dem +14)
Right Track/Wrong Track (RV): 39/59, up from 32/66
Who do you trust on Iraq (RV)? Dem 42, Rep 42, up from Dem 48, Rep 40
Party that best reflects your values (RV): Dems 48, Rep 44, up from Dems 53, Reps 37
And so on…now many of those numbers are still pretty dismal for Republicans, but clearly a more accurate, unbiased headline would be: Republicans Closing Gap As Election Nears…that’s the story the survey tells, anyway…
Of course, the WaPo headline is "Democrats on the Offensive, Could Win Both Houses."
AJ Strata:
Right. The trend of losing nearly 2/3rds of the support in two weeks is nothing! Amazing. They really do believe their own spin.
I'm not a great poll analyst, but I know a guy:
Oh, by the way, the Post was kind enough to give us a bit of history on their generic ballot preference question:
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
11/6/94 RV 47 42 5 2 5
10/31/94 RV 48 44 4 1 3
Yes, on November 6, 1994, among registered voters, ABC News/Washington Post had the Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 42. So we know just how valuable an indicator it is.
Still, an eight point shift to me says, at the very least, that it was never a 14 point advantage. (Or if it was, it was very soft.) And I think the phenomenon I'm describing - Republicans "coming home," voters actually paying closer attention in these final days, maybe having second thoughts and doubts about the Democrats, maybe just offended by Kerry, or liking the fired-up Bush they're seeing on the campaign trail - is happening. The question is, how much? And will this effect occur in certain parts of the country, certain states and districts, and not others? And will that effect occur as intensely where the GOP needs it most?
Meanwhile, the contest for Delay's old seat is tied up, despite Republicans having to write in a candidate. It's Zogby, but...
The poll also shows that 62 percent of respondents were aware that there's a write-in candidate. Sixty-one percent said they know how to cast a write-in vote.
In Mark Foley's Florida district, Rothenberg and Cook are calling it a toss-up.
It's been hard for me to believe those districts would up and turn blue based on the ills befalling their former Congressmen, but man, would that be demoralizing for Dems if we kept those seats. It makes me feel like many seats aren't in as much danger as some would like us to believe.
The NY Times, somehow, isn't feeling the shift. Color me surprised:"GOP Glum as It Struggles to Hold Congress."
Hey, is that the perfect victim holding up that Tester sign? The Burns/Tester race, by the way, is now a 1-point lead for Tester, and has been moving in Burns' favor for a couple weeks.
|
|
Well, I am not a disaffected republican. I have always thought they were a bunch of criminals, liars, and hypocrites.
Just remember, The Nile may be a river in Egypt, but denial has become a republican philosophy.
Politics is just like driving: D is forward, R is reverse. |
|
No rule against it, but don't be telling us that you are just *sooo* disappointed this year with this particular election that you made up your mind to vote Dem this year.
We've been flooded with a lot of "disaffected Republicans" who, with maybe a little more goading than the Townhallers have given you so far, start spewing DNC talking points. It puts me in mind of the guy who was claiming in various protests to be "ashamed" of the Republican Party he claimed to once support. Turned out he's been giving to the DNC since at least '92. |
|
|
Obviously, if there were a rule against it, you wouldn't be posting. Enjoy the thread. |
|
And is there some kind of law against a Dem posting here?
I used to be Republican. I guess that doesn't count for anything here though. |
|
"tax cuts for the rich"
"repubs"
"Dems may not have a clear solution for Iraq, but at least they are not in denial about what is happening there, as the republicans are."
"If you like mediocrity, a second-rate educational system, and a shrinking middle class, erosion of civil rights, vote Republican."
Yeah, Sure. You're just another disaffected Republican. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Riiiiiiiight.
Back to DU with ya! |
|
|
State house has been controlled by repubs, governor also republican. Property taxes have soared under this administration. |
|
Our state house has been controlled by Republican majority while our property taxes increased by double-digits.
Dems may not have a clear solution for Iraq, but at least they are not in denial about what is happening there, as the republicans are.
The problem with allowing the Republicans to run the country is that we are on a downward spiral to mediocrity. NCLB is a joke. The best and brightest are leaving as we speak.
If you like mediocrity, a second-rate educational system, and a shrinking middle class, erosion of civil rights, vote Republican.
Ask Warren Buffet about how great tax cuts for the rich are. |
|
to people who will cut off their noses to spite their faces. And, frankly, I don't think any true republican is that stupid. Is Iraq a mess? Sure it is. Do the Democrats know how to fix it? No. If your property taxes increased, perhaps it is because your Democratic STATE representatives have increased them. Last I knew, the federal government doesn't control property taxes (of course if you get the Democrats in they may figure out a way to do so). Go ahead..vote Democrat and watch them increase even more. No skin off my face as I don't live in your obviously blue state.
Upset about immigration? Well, the Republican House attempted to get tough and was rebuffed by all those *moderate* Republicans and the Democrats in the Senate that some of the posters seem to admire.
Of course, the fact that the economy is tooting along better than it was in the 90's is not factoring in for some reason. I was not in favor of prescription drugs in Medicare, but, I am in favor of the Patriot Act, the NSA surveillance program, and all the other programs known or unknown which have kept us safe since 9-11. Including the military tribunals, Guantanamo, and whatever the CIA is doing in secret prisons (assuming there are some which I fervently hope is the case). Of course, I draw the line at cutting off the terrorists heads on video.
My own sense of the Iraq malaise is the people are frustrated we are not winning...not that we are there. Perhaps the mistake was trying to turn it over to the Iraqis too soon. Before we put the fear of Allah in them. Maybe we should have followed the Japan model. I may be wrong but I think it took six years or more to get that country straight after they surrendered in WWII.
All I can see from the Democrats is higher taxes, lenghthy trials for terrorists clogging our courts (hope you don't want to bring a civil suit in the next 4 years if the Democrats get their way), impeachment, investigations, etc. If thats what you want, by all means vote Democrat. I suspect most of you have been doing so all along. |
|
Tuesday's vote is about Iraq. I've been canvassing for a state rep race for 6 months and the first thing voters want to talk about is the mess in Iraq.
I have to remind them that I'm at their door to talk about a STATE level race (you know, education, roads, healthcare), and they still want to let loose about the mess in Iraq. Go figure.
Yep, this race is about anger at the Bush administration, no matter how much I tried to get voters to talk about state level issues. They don't see gay marriage or pro-life as relevant either -- Iraq has usurped just about every other issue.
And it's hard to argue with them. This admin doesn't have a plan to rebuild that country (can anyone here articulate one?) which has pretty much sunk into chaos and civil war. Lots of Iraqis -- all ages -- are dying right now. Pro-life arguments ring hollow when so many are dying over there. |
|
I'm sure there are some exceptions, but It seems to me that Tuesday's vote is more about Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Hillary Clinton than about the local rep.
The only way I could understand someone who has leaned republican in the past voting democrat is that they have let the msm provide them with their information. Or maybe, they are less than honest about their past positions. |
|
Many moderate Republicans are voting Democratic.I know, I've spoken with many over the past six months. The typical response this year is "they've messed up big in Iraq". The next thing they say is something like "this is not the Republican party I knew 40 years ago. Somebody has hijacked this party, look at the enormous federal deficit."
Some are in a state of shock and grief. It is amazing. |
|
I agree with You about people being angry at the
republicans. And like Dick Armey said this week,
they brought it on themselves. Believe me, no-
one is angrier than I am. But I did watch the
PA debates and Casey and Sestak were pathetic.
I almost felt sorry for them, but it was a real
eye-opener (all they did was sling mud). I feel
I just can't sit this election out. I've got
bones-to-pick with Santorum and Weldon, but I
tremble at the alternative choices. The sun will
come up on Wednesday, and this should be a real
wake-up call for the republican party. |
|
I dispute the assumption that everybody is upset with the current Congress. How is this Congress worse than previous sessions? Why did the illegal immigration issue (a big loser issue for Republicans) suddenly get all of this play on Hannity/Gallagher earlier this year? We've tolerated and acknowledged illegals for a long, long time, and it seems like overnight this became the greatest threat to American peace and prosperity.
All of the research I did in HS, college, and graduate school has pretty much confirmed to me how illegal immigration is relatively benign if managed properly.
If Repubs lose because we've alienated their base on the, um, alien issue, then we should look no further than Hannity himself, who is a "great American" but a lousy tactician. |
|
As a Bears fan, I have to take today's debacle against the Dolphins as a perfect example of an unjustifiably overconfident team expecting to cruise and then getting their a55e5 handed to them. Perhaps we can learn a lesson from this.
My initial take is that exit polls are going to be fairly useless as many more citizens are voting absentee--these typically break for Republicans. If asked by a pollster who I voted for, I'll lie and say Jim Webb.
To all my Ill-annoying homies, vote Topinka, then go and vote Topinka again. Don't spoil my birthday by letting the Dems win. |
|
|
I, like everybody else, is upset with what I've seen in the Repub Congress, but the reality is we have to accept the good (at least right now), and not the perfect, in exchange for the kind of Congress that we would get if Pelosi and Reid ran the show. Giving the Repubs a damn good scare and showing them who the boss really is may make them remember this time. But vote Republican |
|
I'm very angry at the republican party, at the
republican party leadership. Several months ago
I had my mind made up that I was going to sit-out
this election.
I live in the 7th Cong. District of PA. In the
past I've voted for Rick Santorum and Curt
Weldon. I'm pissed at them, too. But I've also
watched the debates in PA (Santorum vs. Casey,
and, Weldon vs. Sestak). Santorum has already
been declared the loser, by many. So, too, has
Weldon. The debates were a no-contest with
Santorum and Weldon far, Far superior. No, I
won't sit this one out. Can't!! My candidates
may lose on Tuesday but Santorum and Weldon will
get my vote |
|
My guess would be that in the early days of the election, it makes the phone bills easier to plan if you call into an urban metropolitan area for your poll. If you called Bugtussle and Toad Holler, you may only find 2 people home who won't hang up on you, and it is not a representative sample for all the money you blew to call them.
As the polls come down to the wire, calling rural voters becomes worth it. |
|
|
|