Hugh -
Face reality. Romney is in the single digits in most of the national polls, your beloved Rasmussen puts him at third or fouth place, and his leads have ebbed or flat out evaporated in Iowa and New Hampshire. He won a straw poll in Michigan last weekend only after forking out the most cash, and by all accounts, his speech there was a disaster. While his initial plan of raising his profile and name recognition was successful, he is not catching on with voters, as his falling numbers show.
So do us a favor and don't tell us that McCain or Thompson (or Huckabee, for that matter) are non-factors. I know this has been Mitt's (and your) plan from the get-go, to narrow the field to two, and then contrast Mitt with Rudy to get the Repub nomination. Unfortunately, it only works if you conveniently forget about all the other candidates. But wishing it were true won't make it so... |
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'BOSTON --Former Gov. Mitt Romney is cancelling his presidential campaign schedule in South Carolina this weekend after getting sick during a rush to raise money before the end of the month.'
Praying he is feeling better. I hope no one is crass enogh to question his health or vigor to run a presidential campaign.
Come to think of it, odd he gets a cold just when its time for SC. Hmmm. |
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You don't think it could be *gasp* something serious, do you? Like, perhaps, cancer? And he looked so healthy on TV last month... |
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Hugh,
That's simply not true. Why is it necessary to lie like that? I thought your blog was different from the others. |
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...to that "imploded" and "dead" McCain campaign. You cannot wish away McCain anymore than you can wish away Mitt's eroding poll numbers. Funny no mention of the surging McCain..... |
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Mitt Romney has a cold and now it's going to be a "flip flop" issue? Had a cold when he didn't have a cold? Guiliani, fakes a spontaneous phone call from his wife/former mistress at the NRA convention and no one has a problem with that. Fred underwhelms and still he overwhelms. McCain knows the real threat and goes after Mitt through his aides.
It's time to get down to whose really getting the passes here.
It's easy to beat up on someone when no one is paying attention to the hypocrisy of those from the left and the right. Start talking policy which is what you're going to have to do come end of October. After that you can scratch Fred off your list because he doesn't know what to think and then scratch McCain because 1) no more money and 2) too much Maverick in the past to overcome.
It will be a Rudy v. Romney primary and may the best man win...in my case I'm rooting for Romney. |
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For all the water that Hugh is carrying for Romney...he's going to need one big water tanker truck. Even Ron Paul is in a statistical tie with Romney according to the latest Gallop Poll. Romney is like a winded race horce coming down the stetch. He's fading. |
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Do you ever chuckle at his grand pronouncements that don't seem to jibe with reality?
I'll never forget Hugh contending right up until election night that Bush would carry 40 states. |
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why others are trying..Romney has this sown up according to Hugh..Hugh's impressive track record of delivering on his choice of candidates (Miers, Crank, Steele, Santorum, etc.)should suffice. |
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National Polls? Go ahead and roll the dice with that. It's all about game. In a game you have to actually play it. In sports you have a pre-season, a regular season, and a championship. This is the championship of the Republican Primary. We're just now coming toward the last quarter of the regular season. It's like everyone talking about Ohio St./Florida 2006 football championship halfway in the season. We all know what happened to the number one team throughout the regular season. If you don't Florida won from the 3, 4, 5 spot throughout the season. The championship game won't start until after the regular season is over and you have the playoffs with 3 or 4 candidates left. I unlike you will wait for the playoffs to actually start before I make my bed.
There are no guarantees which is the problem with all of your arguments against Mitt Romney. The other part of the season is who is the star? Take a good hard look at who you want there or who has looked consistently good. The overall team? I haven't seen anyones team come close to the Romney team which goes back to the character and ability of the star. But no one if focusing on that, they're looking at the rankings and who looks good on paper to face off in the generals. Last year on paper Ohio St. looked good enough to beat anyone. In the end it was the group that was talked about having a chance in the beginning until it lost one game and looked vulnerable but still had an amazing team to beat anyone and was overlooked.
McCain, Thompson, Huckabee. Comparing them to last years 2006 College football season. McCain is Oregon (started out great and then flopped), Thompson is Notre Dame (looked great but nothing), and Huckabee (Idaho State) good team but no way will ever win it all (it's just the way the system is).
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i'm still waiting for santorum's spectacular come-from-behind win. hugh told us the poll numbers showing him 18 points down were bogus and a product of msm bias. |
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Well said Gladiator!!! I agree 100%.
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It's the new NH poll that Hugh mentioned that should concern Romney the most. Rudy's moved into a dead heat with him in a neighboring New England state. As has been said many times on the Corner already, Rudy really needs to put some emphasis on winning NH to break up any one candidate from getting momentum, and then come out on top of Super Duper Tuesday. If Romney can't run the early table he's done. |
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I'm looking at the polls and since fred's announcement he's only gone UP...what is this "flagging" you speak of...
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I can't wait for your political obituary on Romney.
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This is too funny... I hear a lot of rambling and disgust at Hugh's comments here... but he is accurate... any candidate who wins the early primaries will win the election hands down.
Especially with the current setup of primaries. Romney is in prime position to win. |
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This is a two man race. It's between Huckabee and Romney to see which one will get dumped from the RCP poll list first. |
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To the small amount of MR supporters. Why throw good money after bad. Give your money to Fred!
http://www.fred08.com/index.aspx
GO FRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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which is why i agree with your point. i actually think hugh's analysis has a negative impact on romney. his analysis is so colored and cheerleader-like that people, who otherwise might be inclined to vote for romney, probably start looking at giuliani, etc.
seriously, just look at how many glowing adjectives he uses in a single post. showing off his man crush isn't the best way to bring voters to romney's cause. |
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which is why i agree with your point. i actually think hugh's analysis has a negative impact on romney. his analysis is so colored and cheerleader-like that people, who otherwise might be inclined to vote for romney, probably start looking at giuliani, etc.
seriously, just look at how many glowing adjectives he uses in a single post. showing off his man crush isn't the best way to bring voters to romney's cause. |
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really...someone named mymanmitt.com is telling us Mitt is going to win?!?!?!? NOooooooo
LOL
Thompson has not even been in this campaign for what...more than three weeks and people are dismissing him though his numbers keep going up and up?
We'll see a greater look at the group after the next debate...
And as far as Mitt....his poll numbers are awful. he's just floundering |
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Mitt was in SoCal yesterday to raise money. Dr. Richard Land on Laura's show said , Rudy was not going to win and if he did, Evangelicals would lose him! Politico says Evangelicals exiting from Fred. Now what the heck is really going on? Well, the fact is, the GOP has some pretty good guys all battling it out to face Her Highness. If Pubs were smart, unfortunately, they are the Stupid Party as the Dems are the Evil Party, they Pubs would unite behind their choice after Feb. 5. The real story will be; no matter who wins , the Pub purists will wait and not unite. That means defeat. That these dummies do not understand that, is the real mystery of Campaign '08. |
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The Liberal Democrats seem to fear this Man, and Rudy the MOST...
Very happy to have such fine Candidates to choose from in the GOP Race.
Rudy, Romney, Thompson, Hunter are mighty fine.
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I'm not sure why everyone keeps bringing up national poll numbers. They don't matter. We don't have a nationwide popular vote. The states matter. Romney's goal, his stated goal, the entire time has been to pin the nomination on winning the early states. He is hoping that winning in the early states will propel him to national name recognition and the domino effect. It is actually a good plan. Will he pull it off? We'll see. |
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I am also mystified by the continual bashing of candidates. Crisicism is fine if it is constructive. Politics is not an all or nothing game. We should be doing our best to get the best from the GOP and then unite to win in '08. Or do you want to pay another gas tax? Or do you want to have socialist healthcare? Do I need to add more examples? |
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Spacekicker... please address the topic. Your dismissal of my arguments shows you to be a shallow debater defending a shallow candidate.
I stated: Hugh's assessment that this is a race between Rudy and Romney is accurate. Rudy is running a national election hoping for name recognition to get him over the hump. What is the hump you ask? Romney is winning in the early primary states. In fact, Romney may win many of the first primaries.
Sat. 1/5 - Iowa
Tue. 1/8 - New Hampshire
Sat. 1/12 - Nevada (moved from 1/19)
Tue. 1/15 - Michigan
Sat. 1/19 - South Carolina
Tue. 1/29 - Florida
Romney has a very good chance of taking the first four elections. Traditionally that momentum has been enough to put people over the top. In fact, if the last 30 years are any indication... for every % point of victory over the nearest opponent... the winner of NH and IA has an 8% better chance of winning the election.
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I've heard this so much on TH - the claim that Hugh will turn people who would otherwise support Romney away from him simply because of his "cheerleading". Get real. I think people value their vote a little bit more than that.
I don't see why there is so much bitterness directed at Hugh here by supposed adults. He just happens to think that Romney has a good game plan and that he is on track. So what folks! He's right, and you underestimate Romney at the peril of your credibility. |
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Is not the same as showing off a man crush. I cannot, for the life of me, understand how some of you come to the conclusions you do in sizing up this race. Mitt Romney is heads and shoulders above all of the other candidates ( both parties).
If he fails to win the nomination of the republican party, it will speak volumes to us about how little we appreciate the qualities of hard work and personal integrity when it really counts.
We would be very fortunate to have him lead our nation. A true leader and a very devout Christian.
Not the same brand as the ones who have held this office lately, but one who understands and lives his faith. |
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It is a shocker to see your comments here. How are your candidates doing? I hope they are enjoying the numbers game, because they are lacking in the substance department. Im glad to see that Fredrick finally put something on his website. Im still wondering if McCain can maintain, I know he's trying to model his comeback after John Kerry's. Hopefully he still has a staff by January. |
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So bitter. Go offline for a few days, watch some baseball,you'll be back in form by Moday,I promise. |
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Fine. Let's say it is all about the primaries. Do you deny that Romney is falling in the polls there as well, and that in NH his 13% lead has evaporated? Why is it that you fanatics are so quick to cite polls when they are favorable to your guy, but when not, you dismiss them as irrelevant? The fact is, Mitt has been advertising heavily in Iowa and NH, when no one else was. Now that others are "joining the fight," Mitt's numbers are tumbling. Why? Because he support is soft; people who saw him on the TV and got polled are going to say, "Sure, that Mitt guy," until the campaign begins in earnest. And it is starting to begin in earnest...
I don't think it is between Mitt and Rudy. I think it is between Fred and Rudy. That thought scares the bejeezas outta Hugh, b/c if Fred takes the social conservative vote, Mitt's left with nothing... Unfortunately for McCain, his negatives on immigration and other issues are high, and he will be hard pressed to overcome them. But I predict he will go down swinging, and take the Mittster down with him. McCain's contempt for Romney was clear in the last debate, when he leveled Romney over his comments about Iraq.
Time to face up to facts. Mitt had a chance to define himself, but his excessive and clumsy pandering - "double Gitmo," moving in God we trust to the front of money - have convinced me, and no doubt others, that Mitt is more interested in getting elected than in expressing any core priniciples. I think we've had enough slick, gutless, pandering politicians over the past decade. |
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"as the troubled Thompson campaign flags, it is clearly a Rudy-Mitt race"
BWWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
From AP
"To date, the venture capitalist has contributed $9 million to his campaign, nearly a quarter of his overall contributions."
Romney's single biggest donor is...HIMSELF!
And he's STILL stuck at 3rd or 4th in national polls AND is losing ground in New Hampshire!
Thanks for the laugh Hugh, that was good!
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What does it say about Republicans today if they are considering someone who will win the general against Hillary or Obama at the expense of certain traditional values that we "used" to espouse?
The Rudy "straight up doesn't care about traditional values" Guiliani, Fred "little bark little bite goes to Church when he goes home (where he grew up) because he can't where he lives now" Thompson, and John "I'll do whatever the HE-- I want, by the way I have foreign policy experience because I've been in the Senate for a loooonnnggg time, and YOU WILL accept my immigration policy" McCain crowds are a joke grasping for air about Romney.
No need to look at the national polls, look at the star and his team and how they play in the game. That's where the answer is and all of this will play out. It will be Romney v. Rudy for the primary...again I believe Romney will win because Guiliani is not traditionally conservative and you're asking a lot for them to forsake in the name of "electability" or in the name of the war on terror only.
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You're upset because Romney wants to keep Gitmo open and put in God we trust on the other side of paper money? Is that it? Yeah, I guess McCain and Rudy have better policies, especially on immigration, and Fred Thompson, loves speaking to people, he's very articulate and knows all about the issues. If your so sick of gutless pandering, why are you so concerned with the polls instead of looking at the candidates records/agendas. |
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In the last four election years where the GOP was not running an incumbent president (1980, 1988, 1996, 2000), the winner of the IA caucus has gone on to capture the nomination two times in four chances. The winner of the NH primary has the same 50% success rate.
The winner of the SC primary is 4-for-4 in eventually winning the GOP nomination. |
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I don't see slick, pandering, or gutless in Romney. He is a very successful and intelligent man who has a record of doing exactly what he says he's going to do, and doing it well. Yes, he's interested in getting elected because he believes he can do some good for the country. His ideas are right and his competence is unsurpassed in the current field. He is challenging the democrats on all of their folly - exactly the kind of leadership we need.
Fred is enjoying high poll numbers because of his TV personality. He is not proving that he has anything of substance behind them. We'll see what happens in the first debate - if he goes. I predict that he will be his own undoing. |
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and/so/but says : I think we've had enough slick, gutless, pandering politicians over the past decade.
But in his support of Fred he leaves out not only his support but his advocacy to McCain-Feingold. He ignores his votes against tort reform. He ignores that Thompson left the Senate to go back to lobbying and acting during one of the most crucial times in our country's history. He ignores the fact that his measurement of conservatism by the ACU and Chamber of Commerce were lower than his fellow Senator from TN, Bill Frist. He ignores Thomspon's denial of ever lobbying for prochoice clients, then his 'its possible I did defense' which turned into 'Yes I did it but thats what attorneys do'. He ignores Thompson's brave vote NO on Clinton's perjury charge and his subsequent brave explanation why he did it. Maybe he can have Fred transfer from his Limo to his beat up truck minutes before he hits the stump like in the old days.
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First of all: I'm not upset.
Second of all: I tried to like Romney. I really did. He seems like a nice enough guy. But... "Look at the candidates records?" Are you kidding me? Mitt's record is: great businessman, did wonders for the SLC Olympics, one-term governor, left Mass. Republican party a mess; he was for abortion before he was against it, was for gay rights before he was against them, was for gun control before he was against it, was for shamnesty before he was against it... He has NOT kept a consistant position on virtually any important issue in the past 5 years, with the possible exception of foreign policy and the military. In that arena, he has consistently (if ever-so-cautiously) supported the President and the GWOT, but he has virtually zero foreign policy experience, and no military experience. And, yes, I find his attempts at jingoistic inspiration - "A Surge of Support for the Troops," or "I'll make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA" cringe-worthy and pathetic. I want a real leader as a President, even one I disagree with on one or two of the issues, not a plastic wind-up doll who spits out conservative buzzwords for applause and pays people to support him. |
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Rudy:
Align with Conservative Republicans:
Economy: Half Check
Socially: No Check
Defense: Check
Money Game: Check
Create a Strong Early Ground Game: No Check
People Game: Half Check/I'm very well known
Set Your Own House In Order: No Check/Don't Care
Set a Strong Message: Half Check. 12 Steps? Just too much to think about.
Romney:
Align with Conservative Republicans:
Economy: Check
Socially: Check
Defense: Check
Money Game: N/A I have my own money...
People Game: Check
Create a Strong Early Ground Game: Check
Set Your Own House In Order: Check
Set a Strong Message: Check. Strong Military. Strong Economy. Strong Families.
Fred Thompson:
Align with Conservative Republicans:
Economy: Ask the Fredheads what he's done
Socially: Ask the Fredheads what he's done
Defense: Ask the Fredheads what he's done
Money Game: No Check
People Game: Half Check/see Law and Order
Create a Strong Early Ground Game: No Check
Set Your Own House In Order: Half Check
Set a Strong Message: No Check. Ask the Fredheads what the message is.
John McCain:
Align with Conservative Republicans:
Economy: Half Check
Socially: Half Check
Defense: Check
Money Game: No Check
People Game: Half Check/I'm a shoo-in
Create a Strong Early Ground Game: No Check
Set Your Own House In Order: Half Check
Set a Strong Message: No Check. McCain/Feingold, Illegal Immigration. Basically it's time to start coming back to the base and build as you go. |
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Actually, I don't find Fred all that inspiring. I like McCain. As I said, I don't agree with him on some issues - McCain-Feingold is a mess, and his immigration plan was a a disaster. But I think he is a true leader. He has the courage to call torture wrong, when we all know it is, as much as we would love to make terrorists suffer. He had the courage to say that the Rumsfeld "war o the cheap" strategy was wrong, and when his critics respnse was to question his patriotism.
That said, I don't think McCain can overcome his past. He has been in Washington a long, long time, as someone said. I don't think that is bad, but it does mean a lot of legislative votes, and a record to explain. This is why is it so hard for Senators to win the White House; their opponents use their records against them.
I also like Rudy. I know, his personal life is a mess. Guess what - a lot of peoples' personal lives are. Again, I want a leader, not a perfect person. Rudy has positions that some don't like, but at least he doesn't focus group them and change them on whim.
My prefs? McCain > Rudy > Huckabee > Thompson > Romney |
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Thanks for the helpful chart. I only found one mistake: Under Romney, where you listed "Check," I think you meant to put, "Check back next week!" By then, his positions will have changed again, and again the week after that, and again.... |
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This is the question far-sighted pundits should be asking. People have been wishcasting an early McCain exit from the race for months, showing a poor understanding of his psychology. Now Hugh wants to fast-forward from Fred’s very recent entry to his supposedly imminent departure.
Neither McCaoin nor Thompson is likely to quit before Rudy has the nomination essentially clinched. McCain is in Washington anyway; sitting pols have far less reason to stop politicking than outsiders do. McCain has to occupy his time with something political; as long as he’s polling in the double digits somewhere there’s no urgency for him to quit the race. See Joe Biden.
Mitt’s situation is different. He’s more like Steve Forbes. He’s not trying to make a point or enhance his future stature. Each month he spends in the race once he’s “drawing dead” will cost him millions. That wouldn’t be a smart move, not the move of a man who shrewdly made millions. So Mitt is likely to be the first one of the major candidates to drop out. Once Rudy wins NH, followed by strong Fred-Rudy and then Rudy-Fred finishes in SC and FL, Romney is toast.
So what is the answer? I tend to think Rudy. The Romney strategy has been to try to pick off the other contenders singly, hopefully leading to a two-man race. It hasn’t worked, but along the way his supporters and messages have clashed with first McCain’s people and then Fred’s. I’m not blaming Mitt solely, of course.
But the bad blood that has been engendered has affected the supporters of all three candidates. The (correct) CW here is that Mitt did himself a disservice by antagonizing the sizable McCain and Thompson contingents. I think the converse effect has occurred as well, and the Romneyites are as liable to be disproportionately peeved at Fred for keeping their guy from the top two as the FredHeads are frustrated by them. So I see Rudy as the one who stands most to benefit when the Big Four are pruned to Three, say, as of 2/1/08. |
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Let's play for real money, though:
Rudy:
Has a chance of beating Hillary: Check
Romney:
Has a chance of beating Hillary: No Check
Fred Thompson:
Has a chance of beating Hillary: No Check
John McCain:
Has a chance of beating Hillary: Check |
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Mitt is attending the CNP meeting in Salt Lake City. I wonder if Hugh got invited? This is one group Hugh will never, ever, ever say a peep about. The CNP is the real money behind Townhall.com. I'm sure the mormon "prophet" will be there as well.
""The media should not know when or where we meet or who takes part in our programs, before [or] after a meeting,'' a list of rules obtained by The Times showed. The group did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment.""
http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_7001456
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Romney is less of a flip-flopper than Rudy, McCain or Thompson when you look at all the records. |
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Securing the border and enforcing the law is the only way we get to keep our rule of law, our representative Republic, and our Constitution. If citizenship becomes meaningless, this will no longer be the United States of America.
The so-called "top tier" will not get out the voters necessary for a GOP win. Increasing turnout is the key. Give people something to vote for. Not just the lesser of two evils. Won't work this time. People are fed up with the inundation of illegal aliens. They would come out in droves for the clear choice of D=amnesty or R=enforcement. They will stay home if they both equal amnesty.
http://www.gohunter08.com |
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Why are you assuming that the LDS church president will be at the meeting? The church does not generally get involved with political groups. But if he were there - so what? |
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where Romney's backers will go. Be careful Thaale.
Many of you are like Thaale looking ahead and that's a big mistake. If you haven't noticed, Romney hasn't even begun to prepare for the playoffs let alone the Championship. Why do that? The regular season isn't over. Do I have to school you on this. The regular season is a group of games that need to be played and some are big (Ames, money, etc.) and many aren't on the radar but are as equally important in this stage. The biggest part of the game is to get momentum. Not from the polls, but from the people themselves and media is certainly not going to help you.
I don't think anyone remembers 2004 when everyone was watching the early exit polls and how the mainstream was trying to call the Presidency early. But for the Dems they couldn't recover.
Many of you have this mentality. Right now it's all about gathering as much support (People who WILL VOTE for you and will SUPPORT THE EFFORT) as you can on the ground - that's the momentum you're looking for. Not name recognition which is synonymous with polls or media attention while helpful not important. The only way to gather momentum (People who WILL VOTE for you and WILL SUPPORT THE EFFORT) if you don't have name recognition is spending money to travel and hold town halls and meet face to face with people, which is why Huckabee while a nice candidate doesn't stand a chance and Fred who doesn't want to take time won't stand a chance.
Imagine a candidate that gathers as many people who will vote for them but also support the effort when the actual Championship starts. This is what Mitt Romney understands that you don't.
You all need to be careful not to look too far ahead otherwise you'll sound like all the Democrats did after Bush beat Kerry.
I'm only looking out for you my fellow Republicans. |
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Many posters here – and I know I felt this way – were annoyed by the bizarre and rude finality with which Hugh yet again declared this to be a two-man race (BTW, how many final stakes in the heart is that that McCain has suffered now? Are we into triple digits yet?) The feeling here seems to be that Hugh is consciously trying to manipulate the perception of events, and there’s certainly an element of truth there.
But I think there’s another aspect to this, the insider factor. Even the most acute political insiders aren’t immune to Pauline Kaelitis. The problem with political wonks is that they place undue influence not just on politics, but on wonkery. When Hugh waxes poetic about Romney’s organization, “ground game,” and (obscenely) early entry into the race, he is not cynically spinning his guy’s chances. He really believes all this has some connection to who people will vote for. He believes it not because he’s not sufficiently observant of the process, but because he’s too close to it. I’d go so far as to posit that HH was perhaps drawn to Mitt in the first place precisely because as a political insider he admired the technically sound political game that Mitt played. |
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"Thaale's Pretty Arrogant to think about
where Romney's backers will go. Be careful Thaale."
So prematurely declaring a candidate dead in the water and leaping to speculations regarding where his candidates might go is arrogant, is it? I never would have guessed. |
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THE GAME.
Who cares who Hugh likes. I hear Sean Hannity talk about Rudy all the time. Even Glenn Beck has talked about his affinity for Rudy though he likes Romney too. But again what does it matter what the media thinks in this stage of the Regular Season? |
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Ray, if you actually read the article you linked, the Romney campaign does not state whether they will be at that meeting or not. Also, who cares? Big deal. Aren't people free to meet in our country? |
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Hugh is too much an of an insider
Well said Thaale. You brilliantly point out hh's reasoning.
It would be a disaster if Romney got the nomination. Hillary would win in a landslide.
No president wins without the south and I don't know a single person white, black, democrat, or republican who wants to vote for Romney in the south.
All I know is there's 2 guys with mid 20s percentages nationally and mitt isn't one them.
Most people are waiting to see Fred win SC.
Once that happens, rudy and fred slug it out.
BTW-mitt's "grand strategy" is the only one he can use cause nobody knows him or cares to. It's not like it's revolutionary--it's the ONLY shot he's got! There's nothing "brilliant" about it, it's what is. |
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McCain, Huckabee and the others, money is what makes their world's go round. After this quarter of fundraising the vultures are going to start coming out if you don't have the money.
The other thing that makes the world go round in politics is who you know around you that has money and how can they get around McCain Feingold?
I wouldn't put it past McCain that he's getting money from somewhere. The irony is it's his and Fred Thompson's own bill that's doing him in. The how is the bigger question? Any other candidate would've went the way of Tommy Thompson with how fast he started to sink. But miraculously it was his NH debate that saved him...Really?
I think that everyone can agree that McCain is hanging on by a thread...one wrong debate and he's done not because he did bad in the debate but because how much more money can he find?
Heading into the last part of the regular season you can see who has a chance and who doesn't. The difference between you and I Thaale is that you're trying to say an 8-1 team is the same as a 3-6 team with 3 games to go into the playoffs. .500 isn't going to cut it. |
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Gladiator’s post re methodically gathering support, ground game, etc., is what I was talking about in my post re Hugh’s overemphasis on the process itself.
Clearly there are many people who feel as Gladiator and Hugh do. I’d be foolish to discount the importance of that opinion as it will affect how millions of people vote. But it’s not the only opinion out there. A lot of people simply don’t care how textbook or not a campaign is run. It’s not that we don’t see that Mitt deserves a B+ or better for effort and Fred didn’t even register for class till the second semester. We’re just not grading them on that basis.
Mitt himself has suffered from what some of us regard as a similarly misplaced emphasis on conservative tenure. If I’m convinced that Mitt is now a conservative and would be one from 2009-2017, that’s all I need to know. I’m not interested into getting into conservative purity tests with those who claim they were Right From the Start.
To me (and I can’t be the only one who feels this way) these are all sideshows. It’s not about how much money Fred didn’t raise in 2006, or how pro-abortion Mitt used to be. That was then. We’re dealing with the present and the future. The cruel hard fact is that Fred did go from zero (official) support to 20 overnight, leapfrogging McCain and Romney.
It may not be fair, but it is a fact. Those who think the tortoise deservedly beat the hare are likely to be outraged. Those who identify with the always-dutiful brother of the prodigal son in the parable are likely to shake their heads. I feel that way myself sometimes. But none of it ultimately matters. Politics doesn’t work the way most of us would like it to work in an ideal world. If it did, we wouldn’t have had Congressman Shuler, Senator Clinton, Governors Schwarzenegger and Ventura, or President Eisenhower. The game of life, political or otherwise, isn’t about dutifully following the prescribed steps and then collecting your just rewards in middle age. |
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Hugh is too much an of an insider
Well said Thaale. You brilliantly point out hh's reasoning.
It would be a disaster if Romney got the nomination. Hillary would win in a landslide.
No president wins without the south and I don't know a single person white, black, democrat, or republican who wants to vote for Romney in the south.
All I know is there's 2 guys with mid 20s percentages nationally and mitt isn't one them.
Most people are waiting to see Fred win SC.
Once that happens, rudy and fred slug it out.
BTW-mitt's "grand strategy" is the only one he can use cause nobody knows him or cares to. It's not like it's revolutionary--it's the ONLY shot he's got! There's nothing "brilliant" about it, it's what is. |
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Of course they don't state either way of MR's attending the meeting. The CNP is an ultra secret group. What is Romney hiding? Same goes for the "Prophet."
GO FRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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What gets people annoyed about Hugh’s shut-up posts is that HE wants to leap forward to his projected Conference Final match-up of Rudy vs. Mitt. You accuse me, justly, of looking ahead even further than that to the actual Finals or Super Bowl. Yes, but that didn’t occur in a vacuum. Everything on this thread was kicked off by Hugh summarily excommunicating everyone but Rudy and Mitt from the GOP race.
You ask who cares that Hugh has a candidate, as everyone has a candidate. True. Everyone on NRO has a candidate. Dean Barnett has a candidate, the same one Hugh has. But none of them are as dismissive of the chances of the candidates they don’t like as Hugh Hewitt is. That’s why he draws more annoyed negative comments than most pundits do. |
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I don’t see an 8-1 team and a 3-6 team. This isn’t week 10 of the NFL; it’s still training camp in July. Some teams will have big name players not only skip camp, but rest during the preseason as well. It doesn’t necessarily follow that the 3-1 preseason team will be better in September than the 1-3 one. |
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Fred Thompson is the best example of politics at it's best. It's about perception versus reality.
Fred and his peopl think that he can come in mid-season based on the perception of who he is and where the polls say he is. If he came in thinking that he was the best man because of this, this, and that and had a strong message and agenda then I'd say build on that perception.
The reality is that I've seen and heard him speak and he has not met the hype by one bit.
We're 3 days from October. November and December is all you have left to make your stand and then comes playoff time. There is no more training camp and preseason that was in January. This is it.
Even Newt knows that he has to have $30,000,000 to get in at this point. That's the reality not to mention years of perception that he would have to overcome.
Politics is not as hard as you think. It's all about perception versus reality. Many times reality wins but every now and then perception wins. The tortoise (reality) versus the hare (perception). There's too much reality in this election to think that perception will win.
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It's not the punditry. It's the certitude with which he asserts it, combined with his track record of disasterous, even laughable mistakes: 2006 elections, "Painting the Map Red," Harriet Myers, Ohio State, Rumsfeld, etc., etc. I won't need to list them all again.
Portland Mom - well, that's a new one by me. I've heard that McCain is too stubborn, but never that he is a flip-flopper. Care to provide examples? |
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"The CNP is an ultra secret group. "
You don't say. Tell me about it. I'm all ears. |
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Who cares what HH says about a candidate that we obviously know he's about 100% behind?
Who cares about his views past or present? It's his radio show and he can talk about what he wants to. You're either really sensitive or you just don't like him.
If either is the case then tune him out or don't read his stuff when he discusses Presidential politics.
Is what he says really going to change the trajectory of this race? |
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But, hey, look at this:'Today, Romney for President announced that Ryan Whitaker's video, "Ready for Action" is the winner of the "Team Mitt: Create Your Own Ad!" contest.' Wait, there's more! The winner if from Provo, Utah. How's that for a coincidence! Golly gee.
Hugh's love affair with Mitt is my running joke, its so improbably funny. Actually, I kind of like Mitt, its Hugh who's driving me crazy with his blind love and ability to spin anything. |
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Why do any of you care about what Hugh thinks? He's just predicting what he thinks will happen - nothing wrong with that, pundits like to do that sort of thing. He is not forcing it down your throats as you try to make it seem. Lighten up! What's wrong with getting behind a man who you believe would make a good president? Not to mention that Hugh's arguments for Romney are sound.
It's a safe bet that if Hugh were rooting for your particular guy you would have NO PROBLEM with it. |
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Just like his arguments for Harriet et al. LOL.
Please tell us why his arguments are sound for a loser like Romney? Please don't bring up his money. Merchants like Romney usually make lousey political leaders. Actors are far better than merchants. LOL.
GO FRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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you're probably right that, alone, hugh's cheerleading is not enough to hurt romney. but couple the cheerleading with his long run of bad analysis -- harriet miers, santorum, etc. -- well, you need only read the comments to this post to see the effect he is having. |
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Romney is an extraordinarily talented and intelligent man with a long list of accomplishments. He has been successful at nearly everything he has ever done. Not just Hugh, but many people think he is the most qualified person running on either side. He is a formidable candidate and it will be more obvious to you as the primaries near. Hugh is among a large group of credible people predicting a Rudy/Romney match-up. (It's not rocket science.)No can predict with certainty how things will shake out, but when you put all the factors together, Romney is doing well. The poll numbers are only one factor.
Look, I don't listen to Hugh - I actually never have, so I don't know how wrong he has been on any predictions, but can you really expect him to be 100% all the time? So what if he got a couple things wrong. Andso what if he thinks Romney is the best candidate.
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Still waiting for those McCain flip-flops you promised.... |
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Mitt has now even flip flopped on himself.
First he didn't want to finance his own campaign. Now he does!
Mitt comes off as a slick business man, who will do anything and say anything to make the sale.
Sorry Mitt, we aren't easily bought. |
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The Edsel analogy on MR is perfect. Some have it, some do not. Mitt does not. His campaign will end up in the dust bin of history, just like the Edsel. Perfect.
GO FRED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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From Schmitz Blitz: schmitzblitz.wordpress.com
With regard to Romney's release on gays:
I don’t understand how the mere knowledge of the objective fact that gay couples exist is harmful to children or the institution of marriage as a whole. I suppose the logic could go that if children learn about gays at a younger age, there is a higher chance that they might actually recognize and accept them as human beings, rather than a threatening national political issue. |
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You are on a roll brother! Keep up the good work. Thank you for your comment: "[McCain] has the courage to call torture wrong, when we all know it is, as much as we would love to make terrorists suffer." I agree with your sentiments entirely.
And Ray, I promised not to say anything for a while unless it was positve. |
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I'm a Rudy guy becaus..1.)I believe he's a true Tough Guy who has the War with Islamist Jihadism
absolutely right.Stay on the Offense..2.)He can Beat the diedies off Lady MacClinton..3.)He can inspire and lead.
I think Mitt can beat Lady MacC,but haven't seen good aggressive evidence that he really GETS the need for Offense against Jihadism and don't know if he can Inspire.But,if Rudy gets KO'd,I'll easily suopport Mitt.Or--better--support a Rudy-Romney ticket. |
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What do you think about Romney refusing to disclose if he will attend the CNP meeting in Salt Lake City? The CNP was founded by religious fanatic Tim LaHaye. LaHaye is the author of the "Left Behind" garbage. I think it looks bad for a Republican to associate with the "end times" zealot freaks. |
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Toochee`.
Otherwise,I pretty much agree with you.I think Romney could beat the diedies off Lady MacClinton.
In his deepest sleep,he's far deeper,verbally nimble and has vast executive ability as a large corporation CEO and as head of a big-whacky state.
She has nuthin'by comparison. |
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..brittle.They'll be working on that awful kackle,trust me.It ain't flying,so they will adjust.Gotta give the keepers credit in that dept.
They trim sails quickly.Go to a wonderful"store"at
rightwingstuff.com and see some very cool Hillary posters,mugs,t-shirts,etc.My favorite:Her stern-hyper-reality face above the block letters:OBEY.
She's nimbly switched from calling Iraq,"Bush's War"..to using "We..." now that things are going much better.Happily,all the sleaze she's heaped on the mission and toadying to the kosroid left is
on video.Repubs,in the'real'campaign must hold her dainty dissembling tootsies to the fire and play her record over and over next to whatever she'll be triangulating at the time.Her latest ploy for buying votes is $5,000 for every baby born in America!!!!Boggles the mind.Can you imagine the illegal alien-inner city baby boom from that little socialist conjob,if ever enacted??These Demmies just aren't serious people.And,this country--and the world--are living through Times of Huge Peril & Importance.
Hillary seriously wants to change America to a socialist,gov't dependency junkyard.To hell with American individuality and exceptionalism.Just make us a bigger version of Chirac's France.We must point the lights of FACT on her constantly in the campaign.
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