Thursday, March 06, 2008 |
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The Clinton Surge |
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Posted by:
Jonathan Garthwaite at
12:10 PM |
Never count out the Clintons. They may up against the ropes but things could swing quite quickly in the their favor. In just a week, her lead in Pennsylvania polling has gone from 4% to 15%.
If this resurgence continues, Obama's spinmeisters and lawyers are going to have their work cut out for them in May and June.
If one accepts the premise that the Clinton surge continues and she wins Pennsylvania and other states, we could see a situation where:
- Obama leads in pledged primary/caucus delegates but,
- Clinton leads in the popular vote of Democratic primary voters
- Obama has won more (mostly small) states but,
- Clinton has won the lion's share of big electoral vote rich states
- Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to win without the superdelegates but,
- Clinton will have won Florida's first primary (even if it doesn't count) and the perception is that Clinton would win a re-vote in Florida where she has always been strong and in Michigan where the economy (her sweet-spot with low income voters) is the key issue.
- and Clinton has the last burst of momentum at the time when superdelegates must decide. Forget Bush v. Gore. It'll be Clinton vs. Obama
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