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Friday, September 28, 2007
GOP Consultants Agree with Newt (Sort of) ...
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 2:07 PM

Yesterday, during an interview with Rob Bluey and Ed MorrisseyNewt Gingrich said this:  

I think Republican consultants are mostly very stupid. I think they have no education. I think they have no sense of history. ... If I throw away African Americans, and then I throw away Latinos, and then I throw away suburban women, and then I throw away people under 40, and then I throw away everything north of Philadelphia -- there's a morning where Republicans can't get to a majority.

When Newt talks about "throwing away" votes, he is talking about what consultants refer to as "targeting."  The concept is simple: Campaigns live in a world of limited resources, so it makes sense to ignore "hard-to-get" votes and instead, focus your time, talent, and treasure toward likely voters you deem to be undecided and/or persuadable.  The problem with this, as Newt points out, is that over time it means you are losing -- not gaining -- supporters. 

I asked a few top GOP consultants to chime in on Newt's comments.  To my surprise, they thought he made some good points ...

Terry Nelson who served as Political Director for the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, as well as campaign manager for John McCain told me this:

Newt is right. We have to compete for these constituencies in order to win elections. And we have a message for them, so we should not be shy about saying what we believe. If we don't, we will lose. This is one of the reasons the Bush-Cheney campaign focused so much on expanding our vote with these voters.

Glen Bolger, one of the Republican Party's leading political strategists and pollsters, said:

Well, Newt  is right about the math being very difficult when we throw away a number of key groups.  The observation he makes that is off the mark is the implication that consultants are the ones coming up with the policies that have turned off African Americans, Latinos, suburban women, young voters, and Northeastern voters.  Americans don't all agree on issues, and that splits groups up.  Appealing to a broader swath of African Americans requires a sea change in policy and emphasis that has other impacts.  So, it's not that easy.  Simply saying we'll buy black radio won't convince African Americans to vote GOP. It's going to take a lot more.  Younger voters have moved away from the GOP because of their concern about Iraq.  That war was a policy decision, not a political decision by consultants.

Dan Hazelwood a top Republicans Strategist and voter mail expert explains:

Newt is half right. But (it) is not consultants ONLY. Consultants deal with how to get to Tuesday within the reality of what is. Newt is saying what he is best at, a vision for several years of why voting republican will make a positive difference in the daily life of a majority of Americans. The party needs this. Any quality consultant needs to have a plan to appeal to swing voters. He’s right you throw away too many voters and you can’t get a majority.

And Carlyle Gregory, a strategist who, in the past, has consulted for Gingrich and former Majority Leader Tom DeLay told me this:

I agree with Newt, sort of.  Any political party that defines itself by what it is not will never be a majority party.  But why single out Republican consultants?  How about Republican office holders, party leaders and party activists?  The last time I checked, Republican consultants, and I am one of that number, have not cornered the market on stupidity.  We have lots of company.   

Coalition building is hard work.  Thinking and acting like a majority is much tougher than whacking your enemies and throwing red meat to your partisans.  When I came of age in politics we were a minority party with a minority mind-set.  We knew the American public didn't like us or our ideas and the only way we could achieve victory was to fool the voters into thinking we were really Democrats or eviscerating our enemies.
 
In the 80's Ronald Reagan gave us hope and confidence in our ideas and our eventual success.  In the 90's Newt Gingrich taught us how to think like a majority. 
We need to relearn both lessons.

... Interestingly, none of these top GOP consultants knew I was talking with the others.  And they all started off by agreeing Newt had a point -- which -- I think -- is telling ...

Update - 2:41:  I just heard from media consultant Paul Wilson, who thinks the party -- not consultants -- are to blame:

Newt, whom I respect greatly, is frustrated by life right now and has taken his aggression out on us consultants ... Consultants deal in the here and now.  We are asked to win elections today even though we are sadled with the history of our party ... Where was the national party in trying to help Ken Blackwell?  I went to Howard University and listened to the white chairman of the Republican Party trying to persuade black students to join our party.  Excuse me it didn't work.   Ken should have been there ...

Update - 2:58: Political strategist Chris LaCivita tells me:  

I agree that there are several STUPID consultants --  but it’s the candidates who hire them that are real stupid.

Good point.  



View in ascending order View in descending order
Pasadena Phil writes: Friday, September, 28, 2007 2:27 PM
Makes you wonder...
Why didn't the "first tier" GOP candidates appear in yesterday's debate at Morgan State? BIG mistake. Even Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul were well received and they didn't pander to the black audience like Huckabee and Brownback who came off as Democrats.
Virginia Patriot writes: Friday, September, 28, 2007 2:57 PM
Win By Surrender

Democrats want to do it in Iraq, sounds like some Pubs want to do it with illegal aliens. Pander to citizens of other countries illegally in our country in the vain hope they will vote for Republicans. Throw out such notions as the rule of law and citizenship, surrender and win!

There is a huge majority of American citizens waiting for someone to pledge to uphold the laws and secure the borders, let's ignore them some more.
paddy o'furniture writes: Friday, September, 28, 2007 3:16 PM
If you want....
....power, you do not get it by uniting people, you get it by dividing people. If you unite people, you give them the power.
That is why it's so easy to tell who is in it only for the power. They are the ones always playing one side against another. It is rampant in politics and the media as well....
Bush did very well saying "I'm a uniter, not a divider," and for a while there, we did have unity. Then the liberal press slowly picked it to pieces until we wound up back in the gutter as always....
roho writes: Friday, September, 28, 2007 9:32 PM
NEOCONS HIJACKED THE PARTY,
and now the GOP will pay the price for betrayal! Paleoconservatives have NO love for liberals, but do agree that NEOCONS are a disaster, loyal ONLY to ISRAEL, and Corporate Globalism! Now the NEOCONS PANIC!.....Looking for a savior in ANYBODY, knowing the end result is obvious.

Hillary-Democratic NYNY Liberal.
Rudy-Republican NYNY Liberal.
Bloomberg-Independent NYNY Liberal.

Paul-Constitution Party-Conservative.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that ALL VOTERS ARN'T NEW YORK LIBERALS!
Bruzazki writes: Saturday, September, 29, 2007 6:32 PM
Pandering is not a strategy
What Newt alludes to is pandering to interest groups in order to form a coalition government a'la a parliamentary system. This completely misses what Reagan was about and what his own movement was about in 94. Conservatism works. This country does not have a majority (yet) that agrees with the media, liberals or really wants defeat, socialism, and limited rights that would result from a democrat president.

The democrats will always out pander the GOP, because the media will allow a democrat to pander to groups with opposite views and not call them out. Take HRC, who disagrees with herself on so many issues depending on audience.

If a candidate wants to win, they need to espouse a few simple ideas like Reagan and the 94 Congress did. Strong military, limited gov't, no abortion. Those are all winners across any demographic (off-campus anyway.) Ergo, two Reagan landslides. Balanced budget, reduce gov't waste, reform of Congressional rules. All winners; reulted in first GOP majority in 40 years. What are the themes of the party now? Regain power? Become a socialist Latino country more slowly? Keep the soon to retire baby boomers the largest recipients of gov't largess? (You would think the oh-so-socially concious college students would realize their parents and grandparents are planning to rob them blind.)

How about a GOP plan Newt (or Fred or Mitt or Rudy) like, fighting our enemies away from American soil (even if we "created" them by mistake) empowering Americans by ELIMINATING government programs like education (unconstitutional) EPA, and Social Security, and halting illegal immigration (while making assimilation, and temporary work programs more accessible)

Paul makes a quaint 18th century throwback candidate (maybe we can bring back swords, pikes and muskets to go with our letters of marque, and put all of the illegals in the stocks in the towne square) but he would bankrupt the world with his archaic economic thought.
Tazzmax writes: Saturday, September, 29, 2007 8:47 PM
Newtie
is like an alky in denial,....IMO, he should already know that the "party hacks",{RINOs}, are what's the reason for the decline from majority status.

All these morons think they can thumb their noses at us conservatives while pandering to illegal aliens in the vain hopes they will get millions of votes from Latinos.

They think they already have the "conservatives" locked in, with no where else to go, so the hell with us.

What a "crock", and what a bunch of morons!

I'll stay home before I ever vote for a RINO again!

Duncan Hunter for pres!
dogster writes: Tuesday, October, 02, 2007 3:58 PM
CFR one party system
When the leading candidates of both parties serve the CFR, the ultimate winner is the CFR plutocracy, the loser is the people.

The Ron Paul rEVOLution is a rebellion against the CFR. Go to http://RonPaul.meetup.com to join up!
Sean writes: Wednesday, October, 10, 2007 2:44 AM
Are those really ...?
Hi Bruzazki,

- Strong Military
- Limited Government
- No Abortion.


are those 'really' simple ideas for a successful administration ?

Sean Taylor
http://www.ezcampaigns.com
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