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I’m pumped! I’m jacked! I’m even enthusiastic! I’ve come to the conclusion that all is going to be well at the end of November 7.
I know what you’re thinking – Hugh’s irresistible good cheer and happy warrior ways have rubbed off on me. Or maybe you’re thinking that my mood was irrevocably altered by hearing Hugh give Andrew Sullivan the radio version of repeated belly-slaps and attention grabs. You know how we conservatives are – We heart torture!!
But the truth is I’ve come to this happy conclusion from cold hard analysis. Across the board, races are tightening. In regards to the polling numbers, I should correct something that Hugh corrected a few days ago – we don’t consider the polls useless. We do think they systematically understate Republican support. So a poll that shows a race tied is good news for the Republican. A poll that shows the GOP candidate nursing a small lead is really good news.
Beyond that, let me turn to my own little echo chamber. Over the past three months, I’d say I received an average of fifty letters a day that were some riff on the sentiment that either the White House or the Republican congress has been a huge disappointment. Over the last week and a half or so, these letters have disappeared. Really, they’ve completely vanished. Other than from one kindly grandfatherly type in Maine, I haven’t received a single letter critical of Republicans this week. (Except of course from my liberal friends, but that’s another matter entirely.)
I know liberals will conclude that this is a demonstration of group-think at its basest. But in truth, it’s a show of the troops coming home just in time for Election Day.
What do we have to thank for such good fortune? I think the horrifying images of Barney Frank measuring drapes and Nancy Pelosi posing for her portrait (or vice versa, but does it really matter?) has had a way of focusing conservative minds. But so too have the tactics of the left. The Foley carping, the Larry Craig alleged “outing”, the Google bombing, and the Charlie Crist “outing” have left an indelible impression that this is not a good election cycle to cast a protest vote.
Then there’s also the empty suit in the coal mine down in Connecticut. If the far left were really able to mobilize support and translate its anti-war passion into Election Day victories, Ned Lamont would be cruising towards the Senate. Instead, he is trailing by double digits and the best the Democrats can hope for as far as capturing the Senate is concerned is to run the table in the competitive races and retain a hold on Joe Lieberman’s loyalty.
By the way, for those of you who keep emailing me telling me there’s no way Lieberman will switch parties, I disagree. But let me put forth an additional scenario that we’ll all find plausible: It’s not at all unimaginable that Lieberman will join the Bush cabinet and Connecticut’s Republican Governor Jodi Rell will then have to appoint a replacement. Maybe she’ll appoint that nice Republican Alan Schlesinger who has so impressed the nutroots. Then everyone will be happy!
There’s also the little matter that as we enter the last twelve days of the campaign, the Democratic holster is empty. What else can they come up with? Another New York Times leak of a classified document? Another “gay” Republican? Maybe Frank Rich will write a column a week from Sunday comparing Bush once more to a movie.
The problem for the Democrats right now and their abettors in the media is that they’ve puked up so much bile, the public has chosen to look away. If the New York Times were to leak yet another classified document, the Republican base would become more motivated while the independents who don’t pay attention to politics would roll their eyes, sensing that the act has gone stale.
SO, IT’S PREDICTION TIME. The House is going to be really close. I’m with Barone. Either we’ll hang on by a seat or two or we’ll lose by a seat or two. Either way, the Republicans will have what we once used to call a working majority – there will be enough mainstream Democrats that we won’t have to worry about two years of impeachment and other Conyers-inspired insanity.
But it’s in the Senate where I’m going to go out on a limb. All the close races? The ones in Virginia, Montana, Tennessee, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland, and Missouri? We’re going to run the table except for one. I bet Ohio’s where we go down. In Pennsylvania or Michigan, either the brave Santorum or the increasingly impressive Bouchard will pull off the major upset. And in Rhode Island, heads they win, tails we lose. I personally hope the voters return Lincoln Chafee to private life where he’ll no doubt make a profound contribution to society as an eccentric philatelist or something along those lines.
Remember in 2002 on Election Night when the good news kept coming? I’m getting the sense it’s going to be a lot like that on November 7.
Compliments? Complaints? Contact me at Soxblog@aol.com .
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