1) What were the Republicans thinking? Didn’t they know this immigration bill would outrage their base?

In a word, no. The storm occasioned by this dreadful bill has caught Washington completely by surprise. Both Democrats and Republicans have no idea what hot-button issues immigration and securing the border are. Or at least they had no idea until the middle of last week.

2) How could they have been so blind?

As one who formerly walked with the blind, I think I can address that with some authority. Last week I wrote that immigration has never been an issue that really “blew my hair back.” I never gave it much thought, and certainly never wrote a lot about it. When I came to HH.com, I began getting 300 or so emails a day from the conservative base (and a handful of embittered liberals who like reading my stuff so they can spray spittle over their computer screens while the rage virus takes a hold of them). As one who has sifted through literally tens of thousands of emails the past several months, I can authoritatively say that by far the single most important issue to the conservative base is immigration.

Most congressmen don’t interact with the base as much as bloggers do. They don’t know what you’re thinking. Believe it or not, they thought you would greet the arrival of this immigration bill with unbridled enthusiasm. A certain prickly presidential contender even wagered his campaign on it, which was probably the most foolish gamble any human being made since my last trip to Foxwoods.

3) Did any politicians see it coming?

It’s funny. Ann Romney, when interviewed by George Stephanopoulos, was asked what the biggest issue is to most people. She responded without hesitating, “Immigration.” The presidential candidates who are carving their way through Iowa cornfields know it. Those who were blindsided by the reaction got nailed because of their immersion in the DC bubble.

4) Does anyone not pulling a paycheck from Capitol Hill like this bill?

I don’t think so. The progressive blogs (or Nutroots, if you will) have been collectively silent on the issue. They have yet to utter a peep on the matter, other than to make fun of John McCain’s temper.

5) So what’s that mean?

The idea of reforming immigration without comprehensively securing the border offends virtually the entire country. You’d expect the Nutroots to be pounding the right for its xenophobia, but instead they’ve opted for radio silence. Even liberals think the idea of maintaining a porous border as a matter of policy is ludicrous.

6) You mentioned xenophobia. Isn’t that a big part of the right’s immigration stance?

That’s the single biggest misunderstanding regarding this debate, and it really frustrates me. I’ve read countless emails on the subject, and what really concerns the right isn’t the current batch of 12 million illegal immigrants but the next batch of 12 million who will keep flowing in once congress “reforms” immigration but still declines to seal the border.

7) Big deal. You’ve read some emails. That’s hardly a scientific method for reaching such a sweeping conclusion. Do you have any harder evidence to support this ridiculous notion that Republicans aren’t a bunch of xenophobic cretins who hate all brown people?

Your wish is my command. Rasmussen Reports reports, “Polling consistently shows that most Republicans favor an open and welcoming immigration policy that welcomes all except national security threats, criminals, and those coming to live off the US welfare system. The last time we polled on that question, Republicans favored such a policy by a 56% to 30%. Numbers for Democrats were essentially the same (54% to 29%).” But here’s the real interesting part: 72% of Republicans and 64% of Democrats agree that it doesn’t make any sense to reform our immigration laws until we secure our border and enforce existing laws.

8) That might explain the Nutroots’ silence on the matter.

It might.

9) So what’s the political fall-out from all of this?

Oddly enough, the Democrats will skate free for doing something that’s so contrary to the wishes of their base. That’s the benefit of being a party that really only cares about hating its opposition. As Markos Moulitsas has repeatedly pointed out, even the Democrats’ most enthusiastic supporters aren’t particularly rigid in their ideology, primarily because they don’t have an ideology.

As for the Republicans, even if this bill dies, the scars from this battle will linger. The Republican base at this moment has absolutely no faith in its leaders. The fact that our favorite Senator, John Kyl, mid-wifed this bill is sobering. And I don’t even want to talk about what will happen to the Republican Party if this bill becomes law.

10) Come on – talk about it.

Okay. It will mean nothing less than the end of the party as we’ve come to know it.

11) How about the effect of this on the presidential race?

Well, John McCain is done. It’s over for him. This is one thumb in the eye that the base will not forget. And the fact that he swooped back into DC to try to shove this bill down Congress’ throat after the Republican base had already manned the barricades won’t win him any new friends.

As for the other guys, there’s now an ideological vacuum atop the Republican Party. The president has rendered himself irrelevant with this idiotic gamble. What was he thinking? We’re at the most critical stage of an unpopular war, and he decides that it’s the perfect moment to go to the mattresses over the issue that most effectively separates him from his base? Either this was a piece of masterful Rovian political jujitsu that’s beyond my ken, or it was just flat out dumb.

The opening at the top presents an opportunity for the non-McCain presidential candidates, specifically Romney and Thompson. Rudy can’t be the ideological leader of the party because he’s ideologically out of step with the party on too many issues. But for Romney and Thompson, this could be a real moment. If one of them successfully seizes it, he’ll have a huge leg-up on becoming the party’s nominee.

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