Wednesday, October 31, 2007
|
|
Losing Third Parties Don't Change History
|
|
Posted by:
Michael Medved at
4:41 AM
|
|
For third party purists, rejection by the general public confirms their sense of moral superiority and martyrdom: winning 0.03% with uncompromising principles feels somehow nobler than winning an election through the normal compromises and actually changing the direction of politics. In this sense, fringe party activism represents the ultimate in masturbatory politics: giving intense pleasure and passing thrills to the individual participants but exerting no impact whatever on anyone else.
On those rare occasions when third parties play some decisive role in close elections, they almost always damage the candidates who more closely resemble the independent contenders. Former Republican Ross Perot, for example, destroyed Republican President George H.W. Bush, leftist Ralph Nader damaged Al Gore, and “limited government” Libertarian Senate candidates in Montana, Washington, Georgia and other states recently swung elections to big government Democrats (and in 2006 tilted at least three close elections to give Harry Reid his one-vote Senate majority).
By taking votes from the major party contender who’s ideologically most similar, and rewarding those opponents who agree with them the least, independent candidates move the political process away from their professed goals, not toward them.
Most Americans have come to understand this cruel and dangerous game, so that even the most ballyhooed fringe candidates fail to live up to their promising poll numbers. In 1980, moderate Republican John Anderson believed the surveys and pundits who said he could establish himself as a middle-of-the-road alternative to the outspoken conservative Ronald Reagan and the failed liberal standard-bearer, Jimmy Carter. In the end, Anderson drew only 6.6%, fading fast in the last days before the election as the American people began to focus on the true stakes in the choice before them.
This pattern repeats itself in almost every election: even the most intriguing third-party flirtations abruptly turn sour in the “getting serious” phase that precedes a final decision. With an evenly divided electorate providing see-saw victories for Democrats and Republicans, an individual can change history far more readily by voting for one of the major candidates than by giving his support to a laughably irrelevant fringy. A shift of 0.5% can alter the outcome of many elections, but it changes nothing if a Constitution Party candidate gets 0.7% vs. 0.2%.
In this context, the American people remain too sensible to accept the fulminations of brain-dead blowhards like Lou Dobbs. “All that seems to remain of the Republican and Democratic parties is their partisanship, their labels, and their records of intransigence and ineffectiveness over the past forty years.” Over the past forty years, Mr. Dobbs? Since 1967? The Reagan Revolution, which won the Cold War and slashed top tax rates from 70% to 28%, represented only “intransigence and ineffectiveness”? Welfare reform and balanced budgets, achieved by the Gingrich Congress in collaboration with the administration of Bill Clinton, amounted to nothing more than “partisanship”?
Third party purists say they refuse to accept a choice between “the lesser of two evils” – a wretchedly misleading line that suggests that any public servant with whom we disagree is, indeed, evil and not merely wrong. In truth, very few working politicians, Republican or Democrat, honestly qualify as “evil”: the need for winning and retaining office won’t eliminate all mediocrities, but almost always rids us of any truly malevolent individuals. The notion that electoral opponents constitute “evil” of any kind – either the lesser or greater variety – serves only to poison our politics, and to prevent mature choices between major party candidates who, while invariably flawed, give us a chance to serve our country by selecting the better of two imperfects.
|
|
I thoroughly enjoyed and appreciated your comments here. I agree wholeheartedly. The time to pick apart and dissect a candidate based on purity is in the primaries. I for one will be supporting whomever the nominee is since I do not want "Hill-Bam-Wards" to win the national election.
Thank you so much for your enlightened comments. |
|
I am put in the position of voting for a major party instread of my gut everytime I walk into the voting booth. I am sad to say that I too will be voting Republican again next year based not on a desire to see any of the candidates in the field so far become president; but more because the thought of Hillary scares me and I agree with you on splitting the vote. However, at a local level I believe we will see more and more Libertarians taking seats and leading. And once the people become aware of the freedom of smaller government and less intrusion of the far left and far right into our lives, the more the 2 major parties have to fear. Then, and only then, will we see a sea change in politics. For every example you name, I can retort with the simple facts; Government was cut, but still not enough. We have more and more laws, and the limiting power of the Constitution is as much forgotten as the name of the pioneer who lies rotting in an unmarked grave. It is voting against a candidate, and not for, that drives our politics today. Most people really are Libertarians in their view of how government should stay out of our daily lives. It's a shame the Dems and Republicans have managed to scare everyone into submission. |
|
That some evangelicals might jump ship from the GOP because of Rudy is astounding. Are they really willing to risk having the country slide backwards for EIGHT YEARS, all because the term "pro-choice" is attached to Rudy's name? He's defined his stance on abortion very clearly; but, in case anyone missed it, here it is again:
"Rudy Giuliani supports reasonable restrictions on abortion such as parental notification with a judicial bypass and a ban on partial birth abortion—except when the life of the mother is at stake. He’s proud that adoptions increased 66% while abortions decreased over 16% in New York City when he was Mayor. But Rudy understands that this is a deeply personal moral dilemma, and people of good conscience can disagree respectfully."
Keep that last sentence in mind when you read the FIRST sentence of Hillary's statement:
"Hillary has fought the relentless and insidious efforts by far-right Republicans to limit the protections of Roe v Wade, while also working hard to expand access to family planning services."
Hillary also says this:
"[She] helped found the National Campaign to Prevent Teen Pregnancies, which established and achieved a goal of reducing teen pregnancies by one-third between 1996 and 2005."
In reality, teen pregnancies went down 22% (2% from reduced abortions), while births to unmarried women rose 21%. Basically, Hillary convinced them to wait until they became adults before they screwed up.
One more quote:
"This isn't about big government or small government, it's about smart government."
In her statements on the issues she uses the word "expand" 8 times, "provide" 12 times, "create" 9 times, and "increase" 5 times. Apparently "smart" equals "big". |
|
If Republicans learn to grab elective office by acting more libertarian, then that will be a good thing for us Libertarians. That it takes a while for them to learn this lesson is their own problem.
I am sure there are third parites that want the pace of incremental socialism increased, and they can steal votes from Democrats to teach the same lesson. |
|
|
This *may* be a valid point in a general election. But right at this particular moment -- in a primary -- it feels more like trying to bully those in a perceived minority into not voting their conscience. Of all times, a primary is the time to vote your conscience. Of all times, a primary is the time to signal to your party where you *do* stand, and where you believe your party *should* stand. Now is the time to stand up against such bullying. |
|
In is appropriate for Medved to post this on Halloween. Both these parties engage in trick or treat and it usually works out as trick on the voter. For years he has been pushing this crap about folks "working within the party" only to be ignored of issues like immigration following the election. It wasn't "working within the party" that stopped Bush/McCain/Kennedy, it was a grassroots effort.
For the time being the RNC remains a bastion of Neoconservative ideologues and Wall Street corporatists. The late Senator Hugh Scott (R- PA) summed it up nicely when he declared "conservatives get the rhetoric, liberals the action" in describing the Nixon administration. (Nixon helped to inflict the EPA on the nation) That is what is going on today and Medved is a part of it.
If it is a choice between Guiliani and Hillary, then I'll vote third party for it won't be a choice between the lesser of the two evils, but just evil verses evil. The "choice" there is between a corporatist socialist and a government socialist, both of which hold views on foreign policy that means more interventionalism. |
|
We know who he is talking about...He Who Shall Not Be Named....
Oh, and it brings me joy to see Medved use the word masturbation. I can't explain it, but it's like seeing an elephant on rollerskates...you just weren't expecting it. |
|
I'm still praying that the people of the GOP do not listen to closely to the media while they continue to tell us that Hillary cannot be beaten so we should all vote for Rudy. I pray that we will get a better, more conservative candidate out of our convention.
This I know by what I have watched of the Clinton method over the past many years. (Bill spoke at my wife's HS commencement ceremony in 1975! after running for US Congress.) They will campaign as far right as possible without changing parties. If Rudy is the GOP candidate they will be able to successfully campaign to his right on almost every issue.
Anybody but Gulliani will give the GOP a better chance of winning in November. |
|
|
Medved is simply trying to bully us into believing that Rudy is our only hope, when in fact, he is about the only one that can lose to Hillary in a 2 candidate race. Even Mitt can beat Hillary, but I would prefer Fred at this point. |
|
As a matter of fact, we've been down this path before, since you seem so eager to use history to try to prove your point.
In the mid-19th Century there were also two dominant political parties: Democrats and WHIGs.
But the WHIGs started compromising their principles and fell into disarray due to internal dissent and dissaffection, and the party machinery used to use the same tactic to try to win elections: shame or bully their members into blindly supporting the party.
There was also a big issue brewing in that day: slavery. The WHIGs once again refused to take a principled stand on that issue, and a "third-party" splinter broke off and successfully ran a candidate: Abe Lincoln. That splinter party was the GOP.
So, Medved, you can take your blind party loyalty and put it where the sun never shines. The natives are restless, and the drums are very loud. We're not being quiet about this AT ALL.
Nominate a liberal like Giuliani and be prepared to get royally trashed at the ballot box. Don't say you weren't warned.
He has nothing at all to offer conservatives, and if there's going to be a lib in the White House I couldn't care less whether there's an (R) or (D) behind the name.
|
|
|
All you registered "other than Republican or Democrat", show me your numbers! Show me your 33% popular vote support! Show me you are a force to be reckoned with like Lieberman did in 2006! (And Abe did in 1860) Show me your "party" can rival the Republican or Democrat party and then we can have a serious discussion of differences in platform. (like whether to oppose slavery) Otherwise, continue to live in your idealistic dream world at your own peril! If you want to break out into the real world, consider these words: compromise, teamwork, cooperation. No one can be Everybody to Everyone, but we can choose the "closest" to our values through the Primary system and vote for our party candidate with a clear conscience. |
|
|
When Lincoln led 40% of the Whigs to start a SECOND party, now known as the Republicans, he won more than .03% of the vote. Now the you RINOs have transformed the GOP into the B team for Democrats, there is nothing to lose since we now are forced to choose between a Democrat and a democrat. The GOP registration was 25.7% of all registered voters during the 2004 presidential election. It has only gone down since because you RINOs have chased out us conservatives and declared yourselves as being the true conservatives. You might be able to rally the 15% of whatever voters are left in the GOP but those of us who define ourselves as conservatives are not buying into this BS. Good luck with your "third party" GOP. I have a feeling us conservatives are going to make a gigantic statement in 2008 and one of the two minor halves of the United Establishment Party are going to disappear. |
|
I see Medved got the memo about always mentioning Reagan (just like RudyMcThomney). And though Reagan was definitely a welcome relief after Carter, he was not perfect. Reagan did give us the federal gun ban of 1986. Does that matter? I don't know, just venting.
Oh yeah, I can't wait to see your face when Dr. X wins the primary Mr. Medved. I imagine it will look something like this :-O
|
|
|
However, wasn't either the R's or the D's other than the main party at some point. The world isn't static. My question would be can anybody help me? I would love to know if there is any common organization or relationship with Medved and Mort Kondracke and/or Fred Barnes, otherwise known as the beltway boys. They seem to have the same Council on Foreign Relations Building a North American Community verbage of racism if enforcing the law against those from Mexico specifically. Can anybody confirm CFR membership? All I can find out is that Cheney is a current director and Medved is his good friend. Beltway Boys have the same rant however. What is the common thread? |
|
Duh! Medved is coming unhinged it appears from a reading of his recent columns
In any event, I am not voting to make history. I am voting to support my favorite candidate Mike Huckabee, because I think he would make a wonderful president and he can defeat Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama.
But, If Romney is nominated I will definitely vote for a third party candidate even though the 3rd party candidate will not win.
It's a matter of principle, not making or "changing" history.
Medved is losing it.
|
|
Third party candidates do indeed change history--they manage to siphon off votes from legitimate candidates by making all sorts of outlandish promises they can't possibly keep beause they have nothing to lose. Third parties are at best novelty acts who always offer a rosy future they can't possibly deliver.
If only Ralph Nader hadn't been so selfish all those idealistic progressive votes would have gone to Al Gore and there never would have been the infamous Florida fiasco way back in 2000. |
|
Mort Kondracke and Fred Barnes are not members of the CFR. Even a low rent operation like that has some standards. The disqualifier for these two is that they are too stupid to be members. They serve the purpose of stirring up the dumbest of the general public by acting as neocon cheerleaders. I consider as an indicator the fact that show they have on Fox gets dumped quite freqently for something else going on in the news. That shows me where they stand in the pecking order.
Medved isn't a member either, but should be one for he has all the qualities they like, lying and deceit being held in premium. He's not stupid and can come across as sounding so reasonable when he makes a propaganda pitch. Goebbels has nothing on him. With his knowlege of history he can act as a court historian when need be. When it comes to pushing CFR/neocon ideas he is effective with the religious nuts who seem to make up a sizable number of his audience by his ability to play up to their religious sensitivities. |
|
It appears that we are doomed to keep repeating history. I voted for Perot in 1992 and spent the rest of the 90s wishing that I hadn't. I know I'm not the only one.
If you are not voting for the candidate who BOTH represents the most of what you believe in AND has the best chance of winning, then you might as well just stay home.
Third party types seemed to be afflicted with a fascination with last stand type political battles. They actually LIKE losing so long as they get to say "I told you so" at a later date.
I swear I believe they see themselves as Tolkien-esque outnumbered defenders of a keep somewhere, fighting against overwhelming odds expecting to look up and see Gandalf crest a hill with thousands of cavalry.
Folks, Gandalf ain't coming.
If America had proportional representation in Congress, MAYBE 3rd parties would make sense. But we don't and they don't. |
|
Democrats want to do it in Iraq, sounds like some Pubs want to do it with illegal aliens. Pander to citizens of other countries illegally in our country in the vain hope they will vote for Republicans. Throw out such notions as the rule of law and citizenship, surrender and win!
|
|
.....to guard against any third party threats to the traditional GOP voting block.
That's right, I'll proclaim his name loudly!!! Dr. Ron Paul is the best GOP candidate to prevent any third party rumblings on the conservative side of the fence. The Constitution Party's last presidential candidate, Michael Peroutka, has already endorsed Ron Paul. Certainly, most of the Libertarian party voters will vote for Ron Paul. Ron Paul brings in many Independants and new young voters. Even some anti-war Democrats will crossover and vote for Ron Paul. With Ron Paul as the GOP candidate, the GOP tent is huge and unstoppable.
It's sad to say, the only ones we would have to worry about are the neo-conservatives. With Ron Paul as the GOP nominee, will the neo-conservatives abandon all conservative principles and go vote for Hillary? Michael, that's the next question I'd like to see you tackle in your next article. |
|
Pro-lifers have been a stalwart constituency for the Republicans for 25 years. Now Republicans are trying to throw an abortionist in our face. We're suposed to say OK, we're still with you. WHEN PIGS FLY!
Politics is about people getting their representatives to do as they wish. You perverts want your abortionist, fine. Don't expect me or other pro-lifers to help you.
Obviously Republicans want their blood even at the risk of Hillary and a Democratically controled socialist congress, who will damage America for 25 years. Blood has its price.
Pro-lifers are pro-lifers first. We are not necessarily Republicans. We will go with the party that supports our agenda. Apparently Republicans are willing to loose over abortion. |
|
Don't be so quick about Kondracke, Barnes, and Medved not being CFR's. I just saw Kondrackes name on a list that should be verified. I bet they all know Raul Yzaquirre. They are private citizens. So unlike McCains Financials we can't see if their is somekind of financial incentive from La Razas CEO of decades and CFR member.
Anyways, about Ron Paul. He is too similar to Perot. Will never win. Sorry, I am not a "neocon" and half of the people using that term don't know what they are saying. Move away from the freak. What we are really looking for is a politician that does not suffer from double talk-itus. All the "leading" candidates have it. Sorry Medved, I will dare to say it is a media CONSPIRACY to show these people as leaders. None of these double talkers will win. Third party may be created if Republicans nominate one of these guys and the sane one is asked to change parties. |
|
Mike, your attacks and name calling say more about your demenor than those you mock. You are a sad little man aren't you.
Grow up and start formulating grown up arguments. And it is not the lesser of two evils...they are the same party sir. Both want war and both want more government control of our lives.
All WE THE PEOPLE ask for is a Real Choice. |
|
So wrong, again.
Since we're obviously discussing "he who shall not be named", who says he won't launch a third-party effort, but hypothetically let's look at who he takes votes from, BOTH PARTIES in equal numbers. Third party efforts have almost always failed because the cantidate takes vots from only one party, but "he who shall not be named" can take votes equally from both parties, and that's a WIN. Even left-leaning independents see him as the only hope for the Constitution. Step out of the beltway once in a while. |
|
Mr. Medved,
I believe you are perhaps the most loyal defender President Bush has in the world. I don't say that with malice- I voted for Bush twice and although generally irritated by him today I'm still glad he beat Al Bore and John Scary. But, Michael, as the President of the George W. Bush Fan Club, aren't you thanking your lucky stars for the 3rd party candidacy of Ralph Nader? Without third parties, George W. Bush would've never gotten elected and we'd never have invaded Iraq. You should be grateful for the third party movements.
PS I am an active duty Air Force officer, and like many of my coworkers, I will be proudly voting for RON PAUL in my state's primary. |
|
I won't call you a neocon for you understand what a pestilence the CFR is. Most folks aren't that enlighten.
I can assure you I know what a neocon is. When I use the term I'm referring to people like Limbaugh, Medved, etc I wouldn't consider the uglier folks I've argued with here to be neocons, but strap hangers, junior neocons, etc.
Actually, there is a better term for these myrmidons that dates back roughly 100 years and that is "useful idiots." I think I'll use that term for now on.
I've looked some more into your question and I may be wrong about Kondracke. His name is listed on two of the sites I've looked at, one I've listed below. Of course, this being the Internet I don't know how truthful this is, but note that I did recognize other names that I know are members. I didn't see Medved or Barnes, but Barnes really doesn't need a membership, seeing how his boss Bill Kristol belongs to them.
http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/2807/CFRF-Klist.html
I did see one thing of interest. An individual can nominate someone to the CFR. Maybe you and I should nominate Medved. He certainly deserves it and it would undone this obvious injustice to such a sterling person. :D
http://www.cfr.org/about/membership/#nominating
I'm sorry you think that way about Paul. We'll have to agree to disagree on that one. |
|
|
Ron Paul has no chance. Paraphrasing him, we caused terrorism. I would equate it to excusing the crime of illegal aliens, blaming the citizens and paralyzing us from doing anything. I am not an isolationist, nor do I believe in the war effort or homeland insecurity. This is because we could have stopped the terrorists by checking visas, border security... However, this does not mean we caused the terrorists to kill. And we did not escalate terrorism by hanging Saddam. However, we do encourage terrorism when our own president insists on prosecuting our men for not fighting a pc war. This is a rallying laugh for the terrorists. Lets get real. I appreaciate your research on the CFR. I think Medved atleast filmed a piece for the CFR and wikipedia at one point listed him as a member. |
|
I think that party politicians are misreading opposition to their corruption this election. Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano recently signed into law a bill that had the following effect on independent voter registration here in Arizona.
2000-2002 107,715 2002-2004 165,771 2004-2006 26,483
The bill she signed was to change the Arizona voter registraiton form to delete the option to register independent leaving only a space designated Specify Party Preference. This attempt is already pretty much a failure. As word spread concerning what had been done, people started registering independent again, and the rate is back up to about 40,000 per year at the present time. By launching this open attack on independent voter registration in Arizona and other attacks on independent voters in other states, the political parties have scheduled their own demise. The first thing that the parties need to understand is that Democrats and Republicans are not the government of the United States. Democrats and Republicans are self-created societies that seek special status and special privileges in government the same way that royalty have special standing in European government. Their success in these endeavors has done them in. Their lack of success in registering voters is their biggest weakness. People do not want to be party members. Because all voters in the United States were originally independent voters, there being no organized political parties in the United States until the election of 1800, Americans still have the option of registering as voters without signing away all of their rights to some party organization. The parties would have done better to have kept trying to establish free elections in Iraq without trying to abolish free elections here in the United States. They are going to reap what they have sown this election. Robert B. Winn |
|
|
|