Tuesday, October 23, 2007
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Is Romney Losing the Iowa Expectations Game?
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Posted by:
Matt Lewis at
5:26 PM
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Like a kid who always does his homework and always raises his hand in class, Mitt Romney's ambition and organization have both an upside and a downside.
At least that's what I gleaned from my conversation today with Ed Failor, a top Iowa Republican activist.
Failor believes that when the post-Iowa stories are written, reporters and pundits will take into consideration the massive amount of money Romney has spent in building an organization that -- for the first time ever -- goes all the way down to the county level.
“If he is the Republican nominee, I support Mitt Romney. But I just think he is the guy most at risk to take the biggest hit on Prom night, because he has spent so much more money than everyone else," says Failor.
Failor also believes people could be surprised by Mike Huckabee -- or possibly even Rudy Giuliani.
But even if one of these men comes in second to Mitt Romney, the expectations are now set that Romney has spent so much time and energy in Iowa that the candidate who finishes in second-place should still be far behind Romney. In short, it's not enough for Romney to win; he has to devastate his opponents. That's setting the bar pretty high.
The theory is that by working so hard in Iowa, Romney may have inadvertently created a situation in which there is little upside to winning, and where finishing second would be devastating.
Let's suppose Mike Huckabee, for example, finishes close behind Romney, in second place, while spending a fraction of the money. Huckabee's team might then spin the results and argue they actually won Iowa. Of course, if this were effective, it might also diminish the bump Romney would receive coming out of the state ...
Using a sports analogy, Failor tells me:
“Due to the amount of money Romney has spent, he’s sort of Muhammad Ali and the rest of them are Jerry Quarry -- and if Quarry lasts all 15 rounds, Ali’s not the champ.”
Is there such a thing as working too hard? Maybe. By raising expectations, Mitt Romney may have created an atmosphere in which a mere win may not be satisfying...
Update: I've received some emails asking about Ed Failor. He is the Executive Vice President for a conservative group called Iowans for Tax Relief. Previously, he served as an advisor to the McCain campaign, but left the campaign this summer.
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That is typical loser talk by people who are so sure they are about to lose, they are reduced to a last gasp effort of declaring victory anyway. That is no different than what Harry Reid did trying to take credit for the $2.1 million raised by Rush Limbaugh. Watching you political operatives at work makes my mind spin. It is just like Fox News Sunday declaring that Rudy won the Values Voters straw poll despite coming in dead last with less than 2% of the vote. Desperate. |
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Matt, so in the interest of full disclosure just wanted to see if this is the same Ed Failor who left John McCain's campaign this summer? Wasnt he part of Iowans for tax relief?
If it is the same guy no wonder he is trying to raise expectations for Romney. To say that winning is not enough but that you have to win super big or you lose is preposterous.
Can we say hidden agenda?
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It would help Romney if the other candidates came in and dumped some serious money in Iowa and campaigned hard. If they don't the press will say that it really doesn't count and it's like the Aames Straw Poll where no one really competed so I think the guy has a point. If the other candidates don't step up there game in that state, it also opens Romney up to allegations that he is buying the election. I don't subcribe to that but the MSM does what they do and if the Romney campaign is counting on the MSM touting a victory, this could hurt. |
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"At least that's what I gleaned from my conversation today with Ed Failor, a top Iowa Republican activist."
This is the guy who bounced Ron from the Taxpayers forum, when his ratings from Taxpayers organizations are through the roof and many times flawless. Yeah this is the bum who works for McCain, I am not sure if he got bounced or not, but this guy is a joke. Sorry people can get on Ron for whatever their grievances but to not invite him to a Taxpayers forum is just perverse. The man's record on spending is legendary. |
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Let me see. The naysayers have evolved in their pooh pooing of Romney's candidacy over the past year as follows:
1. He is a no name governor of a liberal state. He can't win.
2. He is a flip-flopper; he can't win.
3. He is a Mormon; he can't win.
4. He is buying the election; he can't win.
5. His poll numbers in the early states are better; however, because of the compressed schedule the early states don't matter any more; he can't win.
6. His national numbers are trailing no matter how well his is doing in the early states; he can't win.
7. He is trying too hard; he can't win.
8. He is too slick; he can't win (we certainly don't want to elect someone who is competent and articulate)
9. His poll numbers are falling in the early states; he can't win.
10. Because his organization is the best, he has to win big; he can't win.
Is it just me, or does it seem like these people are grasping at straws? Romney may well loose in his bid, but if he does I suspect it will not be because he wins in Iowa, even if the win does not meet the naysayers expectations.
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I think this is the Ed Failor who jumped the good ship McCain after he lost his monthly consulting fee when McCain had to tighten his belt in the summer. And before he was on the McCain payroll he was "supporting" (and getting paid) by Pataki. Agree with Chuck, Romney may not go the distance, but it won't be because he just wins Iowa and doesn't blow the rest of the field away. |
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Mitt Romney was written off as a non-entity when he entered the arena. Week after week, debate after debate, the conservative caucus, the straw poll, the values poll---he keeps winning. It's no wonder the Democrats consider him to be the Republican contender they fear the most.
If Romney wins in Iowa by one vote, he wins! He doesn't have to win big---but the leftist media will make sure that anyone else---no matter who that anyone else is---is unofficially declared the winner. It is a wonder that he wins anywhere at anytime because the press has ripped him regularly---but nothing works. He will be the Republican nominee and Clinton will be his oppostion. She can't compete with him on any level except for a lying leftist-leaning mass media. He knows both foreign and domestic policy better than her; he knows management an infinite amount better than her; his social, economic and family conservative values are 180 degrees opposite of hers and will being us prosperity and respect here at home and around the globe; hers will destroy what faith and confidence we have left at home and what faith the world community has in us.
The only concern I have about Romney is who he will select as a Vice-President partner to run on the ticket with him. Hunter, Huckabee, Thompson all sound wonderful. I really like Ron Paul but unfortunately, he might cost him votes; I would perfer to have him in the cabinet in a vital post with unlimited access to the White House.
As Pharoah said in The Ten Commandments, "So, let it be written, "So, let it be done!" |
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A win is a win. The MSM is the mainstream media and if Romney is expecting a big boost after Iowa it will be to a large extent caused by the MSM. It's helpful if it is thought of as a competition. Who can disagree with that? That's what the guy is saying. |
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Can you imagine a commentator whining about all the training and expensive equipment a particularly team or athlete had?
Everyone is on a level playing field. Romney may spend way more personal money, but he still has raised ("raised" mind you) more money than anyone so far.
Just as I said after the Ames straw poll, his win was not "diminished because others didn't compete," he simply "beat others in Iowa two months before he planned on beating them." (to quote the Romney campaign) |
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So I can add "overachiver" to the list. Absolutely. We certainly don't want our president to be someone who can accomplish anything. For heavens sake, that might acutually mean that some problems might get solved. Yeah, let's dismiss him because he has achieved more than anyone else in the field.
Please note the heavy sarcasm. |
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... this is retarded. A win is a win is a win. And unlike the (meaningless) straw polls, there are no "onsite" and "internet" votes. If Romney wins, more power to him. But if Huck comes in a close second, he will benefit as well. John Edwards used second place in Iowa to get on the ticket, despite the fact that Kerry couldn't stand him. Might the same happen with Huckabee? Only time will tell... |
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What the heck is wrong with always doing your homework and always raising your hand in class. We need more folks like this in our culturally downward spiraling society. Why are so many "losers" jealous of the guy who works hard and tries very hard to suceed? |
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American politics have been reduced to a silly soap-opera inorder for voters NOT to pay attention to what is going on around them! Do YOU guys read anything other than the "Internet Spin Sites"?.........Have you even seen the story at http://WWW.GLOBALRESEARCH.CA regarding 6 thermonuclear warheads lost in America? "Nukes Over America: Just a stupid mistake. Sure it is". by David Lindorff. Do you guys even realize that:
1. On 8-29-07 6 cruise missle nukes were lost in America?
2. The Air Force said it was a simple mistake?
3. 5 officers and 65 other Air Force personel have been removed from duty?
4. 6 different 150 kiloton nukes were headed to the middleast?
5. 6 mysterious deaths of "Air Force Special Ops" accured during this time period within the U.S. Air Force?
6. 2 were declared as suicides?
7. Gen. Peter Pace had declared prior to retiring that "Any military officer that is given an order from a civilian(Sec of defense, Vice Pres, Pres,) to initiate a first strike nuclear attack, has the right to refuse an ILLEGAL order, and will be held accountable for not refusing that order under the constitution and war crimes!"
There are things going on far more important than the "Soap Opera" aproach to this comming election, and Americans need to get up to speed fast!
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Of course he had to work harder. He came from further behind with almost no name recognition. What's wrong with assessing and doing what needs to be done?
I kind of like that method.
Great post ChuckP. |
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A jealous friend is a most dangerous enemy! |
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Rudy got 1 % of th Value Voters Summit......................... 37 % of the base is PROLIFERS ......PROLIFERS have voted PROLIFE for over 30 years .....remember CARTER.......... only Mitt can beat Hillary |
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with every press conference, every interview, and every debate. The Family Values people weighed in for Romney, people who didn't recognize his true colors early on in his campaign. But, up close and personal, works in getting to know Romney.
But it seems if Romney isn't your "man," he can do nothing that counts. It is the nature of "sour grapes" that the unavailable grapes must be sour if they are beyond your reach. Is Romney's continued positive presence "sour grapes" to the other candidates - i.e., this essay!
Today I picked some grapes from our garden; delicious! Today I saw more people on the postings supporting Romney: wonderful.
Let the bar stayed raised and Romney will set new records. Keep the bar low and we will endure some more painful (unsafe and unsavory) years with the Clinton's, the 2 for l unreal deal.
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It is great when ignorant bigots,MSM hitpersons , and uncaring liars , draw a line in the sand :Jews, centralist , liberals,Christians, And on and on..... watch as we swell....BLOG..."Evangelicals for Mitt" |
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It is great to hear from ignorant bigots, MSM hitpersons,and uncaring liars.................BLOG "Evangelicals for Mitt" |
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as Rudy. Rudy, who hired a pedophile priest knowing the Vatican had relieved him of his duties. Knowing that sexually assaulted children never get over it, and suffer lifelong trauma.
That is a deal breaker for every single Republican friend I've spoken with on this. Rudy has lost their vote forever. Of course, you won't see any articles on Rudy hiring and standing by a pedophile priest here at TH...nor from any right wing media. They obviously don't have children's welfare or well-being in mind. Or their peace of mind.
The GOP is sickening. It's sick within, deep in its heart, with something filthy and disgusting.
It's about time you people cleaned up your party.
peace |
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Mitt Romney is campaigning successfully and people can't do anything about it other than chat about how bad being good is now.
Here that American Children?
Stive for the MEDIOCRE!!
Being the best is no longer best. |
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Lol,
Sorry, just have to laugh. Huckabee (the Baptist Preacher), gets a bunch of votes from a room full of Baptists and now he is a potential front-runner?
Romney is 15 points ahead of Huckabee in Iowa and he needs to worry about Huckabee?
I've got news for you, the MSM always LOVES the candidate they know has NO CHANCE to beat Hillary. You want to know who can beat Hillary? Look who the MSM hates the most (Romney) and you have ur man.
I saw an article earlier today that said "if Huckabee beats Romney in Iowa, Romney is in serious trouble!"
Well yeah, and if Martians eat my brains tonight I'll be late for work tomorrow.
Geesh. Ain't gonna happen peeps. Huckabee is a nice guy and possible Veep choice, but he ain't gonna win. He is behind by an average of 15 points in every one of the early states. |
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Dude, what are you smokin? I can't go a day without reading 5 attack articles against in the press. |
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Jack,
Romney's success is fake?
Now I KNOW you've lost ur mind. I guess that $250 mill he has in the bank is Monopoly money? And he really didnt save the Olympics and he didnt't really wipe out MA's 3 billion dollar deficit?
Oh yeah, and his marriage is a fake too, right?
Ur an idiot. |
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Did you delete my anti Rudi post?
Why did you do that?
I spoke respectfully. |
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"Is there such a thing as working too hard? Maybe. By raising expectations, Mitt Romney may have created an atmosphere in which a mere win may not be satisfying..."
I'm pretty sure an Iowa win will be plenty satisfiying to Romney, no matter how close it is. This whole article is bogus.
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Or Mormon derangement syndrome? Either way - Jack, Richard, Jane and the lovable Ray are all afflicted. Someone, please help them. |
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Ol' LIVEWIRE gets a kick outta Twit Romney- this ken doll Stepford Syndrome Flip-Floppin' Fool ain't gonna win! Warmongering Christian repubs (oxymoron huh?) ain't votin' for no Mormon...
As for Ed Failure, youtube the girlie man! He was exposed for tryin' to squash Ron Paul, and Dr. Paul ended up holding a bigger rally than the one Failure set up, and Failure was called out for the buffoon that he is, by Jan Nickeson- classic youtube!
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Never in the experience of a boxer or political candidate should a winner feel like a loser. Failor's analogies are off the wall. Romney is a hard worker, more credit to him and his staff. There is no such thing as being overprepared, either in sports or in politics.
If Romney wins Iowa narrowly or broadly it is of little significance. The fact is, if he wins he wins no matter the tally. I think had Al Gore been the hard worker that Romney is, he may be president today. Sometimes it takes just a little more effort to win--how much more nobody knows until we go to the polls. That's the irony of Failor's remarks. Does he think Romney's camp will "let up" just a little and let Giulani or someone else in just to show the naysayers he's a grand old guy? Being grand isn't what this is about. When you put on the gloves (mits) you're in for a battle and Mitt never lets up and more power to him.
Windermere White |
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