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Thursday, July 12, 2007
Rudy on Top; Fred Close Behind
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 12:05 PM

A new Gallup Poll is out. 

Here' are the results of the "61% of Republicans in the last two polls who say they are extremely likely to vote in their state's primary or caucus next year...":

Giuliani - 29%

Fred Thompson - 25%

McCain - 18%

Romney - 9%

 |   |  (13)  |  (0)
View in ascending order View in descending order
"Dangerous" Dave writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 1:31 PM
Actually, what is stunning
is the 18% for McCain. This tells me that 18% of those polled are either living on an island with no television, communicating with smoke signals and drinking from their stash of burried rum, or they're actually Democrats.
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BG writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 1:39 PM
NOT
Gallup lists Thompson at 20 not 25. You might want to fix your typo.

Thompson is flat from the June poll. McCain his losing altitude but that does not seem to be helping Thompson in this poll.
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SGRivette writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 2:12 PM
BG-good call-numbers are out of whack
Matt, your numbers are out of whack.

Your numbers don't even match taking the median with Gingrich in adn Gingrich out.

As of right now Gingrich is out, so the numbers should read:

Giuliani - 32%
Thompson - 21%
McCain - 16%
Romney - 9%
not sure - 9%
others - 13%

Matt, did you just make an error? If not, how did you come up with your numbers above?

Anyway, it's more good news for Giuliani. Still, that 22% uncommited/other candidates is a huge number.
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roho writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 2:26 PM
SEVEN MONTHS AGO, THE BRAINS OF
the Sports World said that the University Of Florida had NO business playing Ohio State in the National Championship Game.................Polls are a joke.............A Liberal New York Mayor VS a Liberal New York Senator..............Will be the greatest thing to ever happen to a THIRD PARTY!
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Dread writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 3:24 PM
Wow
I'm amazed that Guiliani who holds almost no mainstream conservative views and is completely authoritarian would continue to appeal to that many Republican voters.

In a race between him and Clinton II, I'm not even sure that a vote for Guiliani would be the lesser of two evils.

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BG writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 3:51 PM
Gender gap
I am doing this from memory but as I recall Thompson had 28 % support from Men and 8 % support from Women. Rudy had 32 (give or take)from Women and about 18 from Men.

These are from the raw numbers for July. Thompson has a major gender gap at his point. Rudy seems to be attracting the security moms. That is where much of his conservative support comes from.

Romney needs to go after the security moms. He also needs to find a way to get some of the men from Fred.
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BG writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 3:59 PM
gender
The gender numbers are from OH and not the national Gallup poll. However, OH is fairly representative as a state.
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BG writes: Thursday, July, 12, 2007 4:17 PM
Hillary and gender
In the OH poll Hillary has support from 28 % men and 40% women. She beats Rudy 44 to 42 in this OH poll when paired. She gets 37 % men and 50% women to Rudy's 48 % men and 37% women. Hillary gets 26% of the White born again vote and Rudy gets 59%.

Against Thompson, Hillary gets 47% to Thompson's 38%.

Hillary gets 39% men and 54 % women with 28% of the white born agains.
Thompson gets 47% men 29% women with 57% of the white born agains.

Thompson runs weaker than Rudy with the white born agains and has a significant gender gap. He also loses OH badly against Hillary.

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