Tuesday, June 12, 2007
|
|
About That McCain Media Narrative
|
|
Posted by:
Dean Barnett at
5:18 PM
|
 Patrick and Matt report that the guys in the McCain Campaign are delightedly peddling their recent discovery of the “overplayed ‘McCain is dead’ meme.” Since I’ve juiced that meme for more mileage than just about any writer extant, I figure I should weigh in with a few piquant observations:
1) WHO CARES ABOUT MEDIA MEMES? If media memes were worth a bucket of warm spit, the band would strike up “Hail to the Chief” every time John Kerry enters the room. Media memes are especially irrelevant to people who are following the presidential race at this early date. Such high-end news gatherers choose to get their news directly, and don’t welcome the role of the mainstream media as an event-explaining interlocutor. Every mainstream media explanation comes laden with memes. Who needs them? Regardless, the media and their memes stopped being relevant shortly after Al Gore invented this wonderful thing we call the internet.
2) THE MEDIA STILL LOVES McCAIN. After the last debate, the mainstream media couldn’t stop gushing over how brilliantly John McCain performed. Most viewers tended to differ, thinking his hostile use of the normally warm salutation “My friends” was particularly odd. For what it’s worth, I was with the CNN posse; I thought McCain did well. Nevertheless, I see no evidence that the media has misplaced its fondness for its favorite maverick.
3) AT THE START OF THE RACE, McCAIN HAD FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS. The man had spent the past six years shoving sticks into the Republican base’s collective eye. As further proof about the worthlessness of media memes, there was a big media meme several months ago that John McCain was the frontrunner for the GOP nomination even though he trailed Rudy Giuliani by a healthy margin ever since they started doing polls. For anyone who knew the grassroots, McCain’s conduct the past six years called into doubt his viability.
4) IMMIGRATION IS A REAL KILLER. There are ten Republicans seeking the GOP nomination, or nine Republicans and a cuckoo for Cocoa-Puffs libertarian. All the other candidates detest Senator McCain’s immigration bill. That reflects roughly the percentages seen in the GOP rank-and-file. 89% of the Republican Party opposes it, and this is an issue on which the party is passionate. What we have here is a fundamental problem for the McCain campaign. He cannot get right with the base on this critical issue. If he had been running strong before the immigration bill began dominating the headlines, it still would have doomed his campaign. The fact that he was treading water before then means the denouement is closer than might otherwise be the case.
Compliments? Complaints? Contact me at Soxblog@aol.com.
|
|
John McCain became famous for surviving unimaginable torment in communist POW camps. Torture, both physical and psychological, was the order of the day. For this, we owe him our gratitude and respect.
But that doesn't mean that he is qualified to lead our country. We don't want the guy who got captured and survived. We want the guy smart enough to NOT get captured and honest enough not to sell us out for thirty silver pesos...
I'm still thinking Duncan Hunter. I also like Fred Thompson; but I don't know enough about him yet. Tom Tancredo is enough of a Conservative; but he has diarrhea of the mouth. |
|
|
Dean, where did you get the statistic that 89% of Republicans oppose the immigration bill? According to Rasmussen, which seems to be your polling outlet of choice these days, 57% of Republicans oppose the bill. By the way, while McCain cannot get "right with the base" on immigration, neither can Guliani get right with the base on Abortion. For that matter, neither can Romney or Thompson given their inconsistent positions on abortion. So where does that take your narrative? |
|
Somewhere, as I type, a corporate attorney is figuring tort for association with Ron Paul.
As for the irrelevance at this stage of the primary, I'd rather have early happiness and joy to despair and hopelessness.
Having said that, I still wonder who's going to grab McCain's votes. I could conceive of a three way split between Thompson, Giuliani and Romney.
I can't make a case yet because I'm still not sure WHO, in fact, McCain's supporters are. Sure as heck aren't immigration reformers. And I'm curious about that number you cite too, though I find it plausible based on the Republicans I know here in Philly. Where'd you get it? |
|
|
According to the latest Rasmussen numbers, I am now in a statistical dead heat with Ron Paul, Happy Gilmore and Tommy Thompson. Wait until I start spending some $$$$. |
|
Thompson jumped into a tied position with Giuliani and Romney dropped down to tied position with McCain (he was previously leading him). http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary Oops, that screws up the Dean/Hugh meme. They love to see McCain in the basement, but not sharing space with Mitt! What to do? What to do?
ATTACK MCCAIN! That's the ticket. Ignore all bad Romney news. Pretend it never even happened. |
|
|
CNN poll: Romney surges ahead in NH; 28% vs 20% for Giuliani and McCain. Looks like the bottom is falling out in the crater for McCain. |
|
|
Attack McCain! After you've cratered, can the bottom fall out? |
|
|
An excellent question: Who are McCain's supporters and where will they go? Since we only know one (excluding the rigorously neutral Matt Lewis), who will Joe support if (giggle) McCain doesn't make it? Please answer Joe. an anxious nation awaits. |
|
|
I am in a statistical tie with Ron Paul in the polls. My worry is that if McCain keeps plummeting, it will get so crowded down here that our numbers will be grouped together in reports under "other". How does a guy who "wins" debates by 60% poll so poorly? |
|
|
Because the Paul zealots just "stuff the ballot box". There is nothing stopping anyone from voting as many times as they want. It is so transparently true. Even if he was merely competitive in those debate polls, his showing in the professional polls of REGISTERED VOTERS, would be higher than the margin of error. |
|
Ha! The Paulites are easier to bait than my Cairn terrier. Using logic with them is of no use. For instance, there are two possibilities:
1) Internet polls are worthless; or
2) Ron Paul will be the next president, winning an astonishing 83% of the popular vote.
Paul supporters belive #1. |
|
|
It's been reported so many times, I'm sure you've confronted this before. All of those on-line polls have no integrity. I've praticipated in online polls where I voted several times. You simply cannot win 60-70% polling in a nationally televised debate (the third of a series) of ten candidates and score a fraction of the margin of error in a scientific poll. The only possible explanation is that those who vote online are minors, homeless, imprisoned criminals or simply not registered voters. It just all contributes to the image of Ron Paul being a kook. |
|
|
Sorry about mispelling your name. I'm not so crude as to stoop to insulting people in that manner. I'm just the king of typos. |
|
That just doesn't make sense. There must be some parallel universe Paul occupies where the laws of statistics just don't follow the same rules. To dominate a valid straw poll or valid online poll with 60-70-80-90% is nothing short of PHENOMENAL! Phenoms show up in scientific samples however flawed. Are you saying that the pollsters are intentionally designing their polling techniques to mask out Ron Paul supporters?
Last year, a friend of mine sent me a youtube video showing a man walking through a plateglass storefront window without breaking. Very convincing video. The thing is that I know it is impossible to walk through plateglass. It is not up to me to prove that he didn't. Like Carl Sagan is famous for saying, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof to be believed." You Paulists are really asking us to suspend our disbelief of the obviously incredible. |
|
From Matt Lewis' blog 5:22 p.m. posting
"" 4. THE IMMIGRATION QUESTION. I agree that it's a real killer for McCain. Politically, McCain's campaign has made the unbelievable mistake of championing this bill. In fairness, the other frontrunners are -- or have recently been -- for Amnesty. So there shouldn't be any real contrast on this issue. But perception is reality, and the fact is, the bill is called, "McCain-Kennedy". And while his opponents have distanced themselves from this issue, McCain has unwisely embraced it. ""
Acknowledgement that the front runners are/were all in favor of amnesty/regularization/guestworker. Where do you think they are getting all that money from? From the same people who have paid for the campaigns of the politicians poised to betray us. The only man in my mind that can be trusted to secure the border and enforce the law is Duncan Hunter.
The primary responsibility of the U.S. government is to protect the territorial integrity and people of this country. They have completely abdicated this responsibility. Both parties have been complicit in this. We are being told it is not possible to control our borders, enforce our laws, and thereby control our destiny as a nation. Hogwash. We are being sold out by corporations intent on importing workers for jobs that can't be exported with the taxpayers paying the true costs, financial and human. If we act like sheep and don't stop the inundation across our borders, we will lose our country without a bleat.
http://www.gohunter08.com
|
|
|
Don't try t steal my crown, I'M the king of Typos. |
|
|
Ok, then. I'm the Crown Prince of typos. I can't believe how I miss so many mistakes. As soon as I post, the errors I couldn't see just pop right up as plain as day. About a month ago, David ab Hugh posted a comment on a posting at this blog explaining his five-hour rule for waiting before posting. It was full of typos so he quickly posted a correction --- also full of typos. He gave up when he posted yet another correction that also had an error in it. Even the great ones have problems. Last week, BrianR did the same thing and used "unintellibible" in the final correction. |
|
First: I'm no friend of the President, I detest the Immagration Plan of his and McCain et.al.
Second: I don't know if Mr. Thompson will be the answer, but, I can hope, I reserve judgement.
Third: and I think most important. McCain threw me for a loop last year (I believe)when he went with the Gitmo detainees (unlawful ememy combatants)aka - the enemy's of this country by whinning about possible torture of the same. Somewhere in McCain's mind, and it's scary, he felt he needed to defend those who would kill our service men/women in uniform and give them special rights and try and defend them with a notion that they are equal in terms granted by International Law vis a vis the Geneva Convention.
That is all I needed to understand him, now it's Immigation. Enough of this fool. |
|
I read today how Mc Cain was bosting in San Francisco about his "many positions" the people of S.F.would embrace.
Is that really what he wants?
Perhaps if he was to switch parties and run as a DemoKrat it might work.
Not so certain it will play well with what he hopes is his base. |
|
|
Just realized I didn't answer your last question. My guess is that there are a few people who try to stuff the ballot box for all of the candidates. It's just that it doesn't accomplish anything (as you can see with Ron Paul). Even the scientific polls leave much to be desired. The online polls are mere curiosities. For Ron Paul supporters to be constantly referencing them as proof of something is a sign of desperation. Besides, Ron Paul does not have a dynamic TV personality. To say he doesn't jump out from the screen is a major understatement. Imagine Kucinich winning the online poll in the Dem debates. Would you believe it? Kucinich has a more dynamic personality than Paul. Neither is showing up in the scientific polling. |
|
|
|
|
McCain is a very proud man. His support will go no lower than 10/9% in the polls. McCain could be caught in bed with a page and he support will never go below that level. McCain will stick around to the very end as long as he thinks he has a shot. What will happen is, he will be constantly reducing staff for the next 6 months and taking cost reduction measures. Due to the immigration fiasco and Fred T's entrance, he will reach Tsunami Tuesday and he will have NEVER had aired any commercials! He has no chance. |
|
On my almost-famous blog (click on name above) I point out some inconvenient truths for Romney supporters like Dean. In recent polls, Giuliani and McCain are far ahead of Thompson in national polls. Romney is nowhere to be found. Romney has poured money and time into NH, but his "lead" there in most polls is within the margin of error. He has spent 3/4 of million dollars on ads in NH. NH voters say Giuliani has the best chance of beating Hillary and that McCain is the "most believable."
In the big states (e.g., FL, NY, CA, PA, NJ), Giuliani is way ahead -- 20 points so in FL. Gee, maybe TH should highlight these facts, rather than pretending the "Ames Straw Vote" is significant.
It's getting close to the time when TH has to recognize that this is a race between Giuliani and McCain. If Thompson does come in, all polls indicate he will take votes mainly from Romney, who doesn't have many to give up.
If my analysis is wrong, please tell me why. Thanks.
steve |
|
I am very apposed to McCain getting the nomination.
However, objectively if you look at the top candidates in each party McCain is the best qualified to be President. Unfortunately, he despises the Rep base and attacks them and thier issues on a regular basis. He also does not seem to know how to run a campaign at least 1/2 of the time.
Based on actual experience and preperation to be President I would rate the candidates as follows:
McCain, Romney (actually ran a state and company), Rudy (ran NYC and security company), Hillary (7 years as senator, first lady), Thompson (8 years in the senate and lobbyist), Edwards and Obama.
I have weighted actually managerial experience higher than legislative experience. Some will disagree. You want a competent manager who will and can lead the country in the right direction.
McCain and the Dems will lead in the wrong directions. Rudy is wrong on key social issues.
Romney seems to be the most competent at actually running something and has the most executive experience and energy. |
|
John McCain is not now, never has been, and never will be ready for prime time. He is a short-tempered, mean-spirited, and utterly self-serving politician first, last, and always.
I would not be at all surprised to learn that McCain spent all those years in the Hanoi Hilton thinking about how good it was going to look on his resume. He and Kerry are of the same cloth. |
|
not convinced it is simply a narrative, I think it is a REAL diminishing of support for him.
with people knowing that Fred is getting in, which is a lazy mccain in disguise from a political philosophy, mccains support is bleading to Fred.
Also, mccains love for amnesty and all else that urkes not just republicans but most americans is ticking them off. it is not a narrative, just look at his campaign numbers. if he doesn't come out on top or close, it will only confirm his problems given that his goals was to outraise everybody and has been raising harder than anybody else.
the more people get to know thompson, the more mccain's support will move to thompson and the more thompson so called conservative support will go to romney. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dean: I'm disappointed, after my many pro-McCain posts in these threads, that you cite Joe as the "only" McCain supporter you know. |
|
|
As was said in the Princess Bride, there's a difference between "mostly dead" and "all dead." Sadly for McCain, the taps have already played. |
|
|
|