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Tuesday, December 30, 2008
PUTTING PAIN IN CONTEXT
Posted by: Michael Medved at 12:45 AM
The best remedy for the prevailing hysteria about the current situation with the U.S. economy is a sense of historical perspective. Yes, we’re suffering a painful downturn but it’s hardly unprecedented and nowhere near the worst crisis since the Great Depression. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.7% but when Ronald Reagan took over the presidency from the hapless Jimmy Carter in 1981, it was sharply higher—at 7.5%. Fighting inflation, Reagan drove unemployment even higher, peaking at an unimaginably dire 10.8% two years into his presidency. It took six full years of Reaganomics before the jobless rate finally fell below 6.7% --its level in the current crisis—and yet we rightly remember Reagan as a great and successful president. The numbers and graphs that alarm the public today only mislead us when they’re deprived of context.

View in ascending order View in descending order
Marlson writes: Wednesday, January, 14, 2009 5:17 PM
Paul
...is just a liar. The tech-stock fell apart under Clinton. The Market reached record highs under Bush. Everyone got out of the market after the tech-stock bubble burst and went into more "safe" investments like Real Estate. Hence where we find ourselves.

Paul...stop it, Townhall folks are too smart for your lies. Try the MSM, they'd put you on the payroll in a heartbeat.
SonOfTed writes: Sunday, January, 11, 2009 11:34 PM
This is NOT like the Great Depression...
...at least not as long as people have an education and OPTIONS.

Watch "The Grapes of Wrath" and you'll know what people like my folks went through growing up.

They couldn't even afford paint for their house... everything went for FOOD.

Contrast that with today's "Depression", where we have people standing in line as they wait to purchase their cell phones and video games.

Ridiculous.
Gmann2008 writes: Sunday, January, 11, 2009 10:27 AM
Current Situation
Paul, Vince and remaining writers:

Here's a thought
We elect senators and represenatatives to help our country:

What we the people get instead is:
Self seving egotisical, mini-gods
who lose their ..." I can help and do the right thing" mission
And instead help themselves and their respective parties..And forget us, the people

The list of Bozos is long and goes back too many generations to count, and runs today all the way through Reid, Pelosi, Obambi and Franks..who don't even have the right QUESTIONS, let alone the answers;

But I will tell you this, if these 534 lawyered up, conceited, ignorant, riduclously behaving, nonsensical, poorly prepared,BS artist-like governmental morons do not start thinking
"My country first".....things will take an abrupt change..and it will not be a pleasant one at all.
creekboy writes: Friday, January, 09, 2009 3:09 PM
Put this in context!
http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

Any and all prosperity under Reagan was built on debt.

Debt we are still paying.

We paid almost a half a trillion dollars in interest last year.

Right wingers hate to pay taxes but love to pay interest.
chad writes: Thursday, January, 08, 2009 10:51 AM
Paul
your comparing Clintons time in office and Bush's time in office is as usual, One sided. If not for the .com boom there would not have been anywhere near that increase under clinton (oh by the way the repubs controlled congress during this time of properity)

On the flip side, Slick Willey failed to keep this nation safe, namely because he could not keep his willey in his pants. So a few months into GWB's administration, the .com bubble had already burst and the failurs of Clinton reared it's head on 9.11

Yet in 2 years the economy did start to grow and grew to record heights, of course that was around the time control of congress went back to the Dems and like clock work, a year later after republican pushed for changes in the housing market yet Dodd and Fwank denied any issues the housing market bubble popped and the short term memory of communists like Barney Fwank forgot it is their issue but with the help of the liberal media to paint republicans as the soul cause of the problems all while covering up the failurs of their loving liberals. As much as I love blaming Liberals for turning into communists, I blame some republicans for leaning towards this direction as well.
Granite Eagle writes: Wednesday, January, 07, 2009 9:44 AM
Paul
"Well Medved you homely jerk what about the stock market? It increase by more then 300% under Clinton and under Bush it dropped by 20%. How about the mortgage meltdown? How about the falling auto industry? The fiscal policies under Bush have been a dismal failure. But of course Medved Audiance are just a bunch of stupid redneck Republicans who don't have a clue about economics".

Classic liberal "we did better than you" tripe.
Well you liberal fool, read up a bit more....actions have consequences......


rdk writes: Tuesday, January, 06, 2009 5:59 PM
Yes, Mr. Medved
You are absolutely correct.
Now would you please so advize the news writers.
They are doing a fine job of trying to make it worse.
old progrmr writes: Tuesday, January, 06, 2009 3:24 PM
Still Some Value There
Those toxic mortgage backed securities DO have real value. There are concrete assets to back that paper. Although many of those assets have declined significantly, many up to 30%, these securities are NOT worthless. In fact many of these securities have probably retained more value than today's equities. Much of the problem is in first determining what the true value really is since these mortgages have been sliced and diced beyond recognition. The other chaos causing problem is the failed Mark to Market rule which forces the holder to revalue to some estimated value and readjust the balance sheet accordingly. This rule was adopted in a knee jerk response to the Enron Scandal that gave birth to all sorts of ill-conceived rules and regulations. This was a disaster for banks since lowering their balance sheets froze the credit markets due to damaging reserves and vastly increasing their apparent leverage ratios. And, who really knows if those reevaluations are correct; they may, in reality, now be vastly undervalued.

Printing money will, of course, cause increased inflation, remember the 70's. However, the World will not abandon the US, they cannot afford to destroy the American consumer. In fact, a vastly undervalued dollar may lead to a psuedo world currency and a stabilization of exchange rates.
Brianbnc writes: Friday, January, 02, 2009 3:13 AM
grubby
Many folks wont be able to afford the internet in a year from now - though throwing it in his face would be nice.
grubby writes: Wednesday, December, 31, 2008 6:12 PM
Medved is an idiot II
Paul - absolutely right!

The economics effects of this coming depression are yet to be felt.

Compared to to what period you might ask. The wipe out of such a huge volume of capital, followed by incredible hunks of federal spending in turn to be followed by massive government tax increases as they already are being proposed will amount to a huge reduction in the standard of living.

Currency inflation, absence of investment capital and surging unemployment is going to create economic havoc at unprecedented levels.

Someone ought to save this little Medved nitwiticism and throw it back in his face a year from now.
Joe writes: Wednesday, December, 31, 2008 4:20 PM
Hewitt Award Nominees
Inspector "Javert" Sullivan picks the first Hewitt Award winner:

The battle for the Hewitt Award in 2008 remains a tie with 29 percent each for Victoria Jackson for this and Kim Crawford for this. The first ever Hewitt Award is a great honor. It takes Hewittian levels of dishonesty, extremism, agitprop and bile to win it. But you can break the tie here. You have till midnight.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/1 2/still-deadlocke.html

Of course why not pick Sullivan for his anti Palin Jihad and Trig Trutherism?

Or perhaps Virginia Patriot ironically so blinded by hatred of Mexicans that he helped elect Obama, to save conservatism.

I would go with Sully.

Paul writes: Wednesday, December, 31, 2008 11:37 AM
Vince
Lets don't forget that Bush had a Republican dominated Congress during his first six years in office. The Republicans solution "deregulation" what kind of over sight is that?
Brianbnc writes: Wednesday, December, 31, 2008 12:18 AM
Amen
"Congress could literally drop unemployment to 0 percent using Reagan's method by stopping top pay unemployment altogether. No unemployment insurance, no unemployment."

Good. Do it now. End it, for the love of God and all things good.


Bennett - Relative is a relative term. Its akin to a nightmare such as... having to vote in a presidential election and the only two choices were Obama and Mccain.

Face it. Screwed is screwed. Shades of grey are meaningless when you are bending over in the soup line.

Medved - I understand what you are trying to do. You think the US economy is all perspective. If we think happy thoughts, we can fly through the air and swim in money - everyone buying the crap you peddle. Wrong. A little thing called reality is rearing its ugly head.
cavalier973 writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 10:04 PM
As for the dollar
the best way to help the dollar is to turn it over to the free market: allow banks to issue their own currency, backed by some commodity (not necessarily gold, although gold is probably the best choice). Banks that inflate their currency Federal Reserve-like would soon find their customers switching to competitors. The currency that is most trustworthy (that is, you are confident of being able to get the underlying commodity when you turn in your bank-note) will be the currency of choice for most individuals and businesses.

Gresham's Law, that "bad money drives out good", I believe only applies when you have a government-controlled monopoly of the money supply.
cavalier973 writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 9:58 PM
an alternate view of Reaganomics
Granted this is by Rothbard, who is reflexively anti-institutionalist (he didn't like Coolidge, either), but it does provide a critical view of Reaganomics from a committed free-marketer:

http://mises.org/article.aspx?Id=1544
Bennett writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 4:34 PM
Here we go again...
Obama isn't nearly as socialist as FDR, yet we acted like it was the end of the capitalist world when he ran for office. Where was your perspective there? Stop dancing around the bad economy.

And the dollar won't crash. Other countries are way more screwed than we are economically. Relatively, we're in a strong position.
Vince P writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 4:07 PM
You and whose army
If you haven't bothered to figure out what caused the problem by now dont waste my time.
An Instinctive Gesture of Reciprocal Liking writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 2:45 PM
Vince P
"All the Govt Policies that were fundamental to the problems today were cemented during the Clinton years."

Do you, or anyone for that matter, truly believe this garbage?

In other words, your analysis of the situation is: "It's not my fault...It's their fault."

Are you 12?
Vince P writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 1:27 PM
Paul
Paul: All the Govt Policies that were fundamental to the problems today were cemented during the Clinton years.

What Bush/GOP didnt' do was fight hard enough to get past the Democrat Blockade.

But it was the Democrats and their destructive interference in the mortgage market who caused this.

I have to hand it to you cry baby Lefties... you manage to insulate yourself from reality very well and have no shame in your fantasy whining.
Vince P writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 1:18 PM
Ryan
The Federal Govt in all its branches are living in la-la complacent land.

I have no faith in the Supreme Court... unless you're an Islamic Terrorist, it's nearly impossible to expect the Court to hear you.


Congress is in the clutches of the Left Wing Destructors.

The White House.. well who the hell knows what's going on there.. the place is probably possessed.


Paul writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 1:05 PM
Medved is an idiot
If you ask Michael Medved about the economic conditions under the current administration he will try to tell you the it out performed the Clinton Years.

He says that the Government received more revenue during the Bush years and that proved that our economy is strong.

Well Medved you homely jerk what about the stock market? It increase by more then 300% under Clinton and under Bush it dropped by 20%. How about the mortgage meltdown? How about the falling auto industry? The fiscal policies under Bush have been a dismal failure. But of course Medved Audiance are just a bunch of stupid redneck Republicans who don't have a clue about economics.

Ryan01 writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 12:56 PM
Vince
I'm afraid you are correct on this. Bob Chapman of the International Forecaster and a number of others have predicted the same thing. This sorry ship of state was built by the first Bush administration, the Clinton administration, and sailed by Bush junior. Congress, regardless who was in charge, is complicit as well.

It looks we've hit an iceberg called economic reality.
Ryan01 writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 12:48 PM
Dread is right.
People who exhaust their unemployment benefits and who still haven't found employment are not counted in the unemployment figures in future unemployment figures.
Vampire's Reflection writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 11:53 AM
Glossing over
You seem to be glossing over the fact that Reagan lowered the unemployment rate by changing the calculation.

Unemployment pre-Reagan was a measure of the available work force.

Reagan changed the calculation to be a count of those people collecting unemployment benefits.

Congress could literally drop unemployment to 0 percent using Reagan's method by stopping top pay unemployment altogether. No unemployment insurance, no unemployment.

Don't laugh because that may happen as the Congress goes broke. It will be interesting to see what politically happens when the Congress shortens the unemployment benefits significantly, thereby dropping the unemployment rate.

The Democrats didn't change the calculation during the Clinton years and I doubt if they will have the stomach to change it now.


eddie too writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 11:09 AM
dread,

what were the real rates during the Reagan years using your method of calculating them?
Dread writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 10:08 AM
Unemployment rates
The real rates hover around 12%.
Vince P writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 3:27 AM
No more Dollar
The US Dollar is going to crash.

The implications of this most people seem to not have spent any time thinking about.

To you people who think this is all a joke, have you considered just how angry the rest of the world is that we have completely corrupted the global money system?

We had our Trade Reps deployed all over the world pushing other nations to buy the mortgage derivatives... saying that they were as safe as cash.

Right now the world is untangling all the US-Dollar-Denominated debt and investments. That gave some strength to the Dollar this fall, but this process is almost complete.

Once everyone is done selling their now-worthless positions, they will have buckets of dollars to get rid of.

I think this has started last week.but there's no need for me to go guessing the timing.. it's going to happen and happen soon.

Meanwhile, the idiots in Washington are printing Trillions of dollars, desperately trying to keep a collapsing Star from going super-nova.

The star will explode and when it does there aint no foreign country going to be financing our consumption any more. No one will be loaning us money to maintain our trade deficit. No one will be buying our budget deficit.

Our money will be worth less than Weimer Dutchmarks.

How is our military going to be paid with money that is worth nothing? How is the Federal Govt going to have any legitimacy to the 300 Million People who are now cut off from Imports ?

And the people running the Govt are the same ones who created the Mortgage policies that led to this.
vonryansexpress writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 1:58 AM
For "historical perspective", ...
the populace needs a grounded 'chattering class.'

The superficial individuals that speak on leviathan issues of economy, life, geopolitics are dismal presenters of facts within context.

On CNN and Anderson Cooper you can observe Hillary Rosen speaking on Hamas and Israel and you'll see and hear a pathetic, nearly incoherent individual unable to phrase a sentence, resorting to shibboleth and cliché to sell her community college world view.

Where is the "historical perspective"? If she's an expert on anything perhaps it's napster or Prop 8 hate but other then that, let's get over the bilge pump view of scholarship.

Ms. Rosen is just one fake. How about Irving R. Levine during the Presidency of George Herbert Walker Bush telling America we were heading into the deepest trough of recession as the 1988 election was in full swing so as to color the reality that the economy that Bill Clinton was going to inherit was in full recovery.

What of Chris Matthews with his Kaddish for all thing financial each night, or Eleanor Clift with her, 'I never saw a pit I wasn't in' mentality.

Listening to these individuals on the economy is like asking the mortician about the future of death. The answer is always the same.
vonryansexpress writes: Tuesday, December, 30, 2008 1:54 AM
For "historical perspective", ...
the populace needs a grounded 'chattering class.'

The superficial individuals that speak on the leviathan issues of economy, life, geopolitics, etc, are dismal presenters of facts within context.

On CNN and Anderson Cooper you can observe portly Hillary Rosen speaking on Hamas and Israel and you'll see and hear a pathetic, nearly incoherent individual unable to phrase a sentence, resorting to shibboleth and cliché to sell her community college world view.

Where the "historical perspective"? If she's an expert on anything perhaps it's napster or Prop 8 hate but other then that, let's get over the bilge pump view of scholarship.

Ms. Rosen is just one fake. How about Irving R. Levine during the Presidency of George Herbert Walker Bush telling America we were heading into the deepest trough of recession as the 1988 election was in full swing so as to color the reality that the economy that Bill Clinton was going to inherit was in full recovery.

What of Chris Matthews with his Kaddish for all thing financial each night, or Eleanor Clift with her, 'I never saw a pit I wasn't in' mentality.

Listening to these individuals on the economy is like asking the mortician about the future of death. The answer is always the same.


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