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Sunday, October 08, 2006
Norks Already Tested a Nuke? (Update: One Administration Official Confirms)
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:54 PM

Fox is reporting, but neither South Koreans nor U.S. intel is confirming.

North Korea performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test Monday, Yonhap news agency reported, citing government officials.

South Korean officials couldn't immediately confirm the report.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has convened a meeting of security advisers over the issue, Yonhap reported, and intelligence over the test has been exchanged between concerned countries.

AP copy should be updating, here.

Successful? (AP update)

The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

"The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said.

On like Donkey Kong? Or, is the "official" News Agency just bringing us that special brand of state-controlled news that's, you know, not true? You know, like Kim Jong's golf scorecard? (Yes, I'm being a little flippant. I laugh that I may not weep.)

Update: A South Korean news agency has a time on the test.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, citing defense officials.

Update: Did you feel that? U.S. Geological Survey reports no seismic activity in N. Korea, according to Fox. 

Update: Via Allah, a conflicting report of of seismic activity from S. Korean intel. Allah also has graphics and pics, so click on over.

Update: More on that tremor, from tdau1997 in comments.

South Korea announced it detected a 3.58-magnitude seismic tremor at about 11:30 AEST.

"The government has received a report that there was a tremor of 3.58 sensed from North Korea's northern Hamkyong province at 10:36am (11:30 AEST)," said foreign ministry spokesman Choo Kyu. 

Fox is confirming the U.S. Geological Survey finding of no seismic activity, however.

Update: Stop the ACLU is also following.

Update: Fox again-- the U.S. Geological Survey reports that there is some seismic activity coming in now, but no location or magnitude. A team of geologists will have a statement in half an hour.

Update: U.S. Official: China got a 20-minute warning, immediately informed S. Korea, U.S., and Japan, according to Fox again.

Update: Japan speaks, coming over the AP wire:

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says information still needs to analyzed to determine whether North Korea truly conducted nuclear test.

Japan's security council will be meeting shortly. 

Update: S. Korean Defense Ministry raises alert level.

Update: AP alert on the tremors reported by S. Korea (emphasis mine):

South Korean seismic monitoring center confirms tremors felt at time of alleged North Korea nuclear test were not natural occurrence.

Update: Senior Bush administration official says something did happen, and they're almost positive it was a nuclear test. The U.S. received early warning from the Chinese.

Update: AP update on the tremor discrepancy between S. Korea and the U.S. Geological Survey.

The U.S. Geological Survey said it had detected no seismic activity in North Korea, although it was not clear whether a blast would be strong enough for its sensors.

Fyi, the USGS picked up readings on an earthquake near Tonga, in the South Pacific today, just to get an idea of range.

Update: If this ends up being true, it will serve to make this TIME magazine cover look rather silly. It was already more than a bit melodramatic, and this makes the melodrama and thinly veiled excitement by the graphics artist look even tackier.

And, the Dems who rejoice over the cover despite the change in the news cycle will bypass tacky and go straight to stupid. Oh, look, there they go now!

Update: Mark it down. 12:26 a.m., an hour and a half into a likely international crisis, DU questions the timing in a thread named, I kid you not, "October Surprise. How Convenient." Priorities.

Update: Bob Owens IMs with this, which he's now posted:

I suspect that we'll find out that this was a real test of a small nuclear warhead, but I would not be surprised in the least to find out that this was a large conventional blast like we had planned earlier this year in Nevada in an operation named "Divine Strake."

Update: USGS now reports 4.2 magnitude tremor in N. Korea. 

At Op-For, John has ominous words:

Back then it was just one errant missile. Today we're talking about a nuclear weapon. A nation killer. A world killer. And it's in the hands of a man whose sanity is suspect and is worshipped as a god by an army of over one million.

Korea is simply too small of a theater to be playing with nuclear toys. You can bet your britches that the far east paradigm just shifted, big time. Let the arms race begin...

Update: China speaks. From an AP alert:

China says Beijing "resolutely opposes" the North Korean nuclear test and hopes Pyongyang will return to disarmament talks. 

Update: James Rosen of Fox reports on what the U.S. will look for from the UN Security Council.

A very strong Chapter 7 resolution to make it illegal to transfer missile technology of any kind to N. Korea and make it harder to trade with the rogue nation. Will not seek an energy cut-off from China, as China doesn't want the resulting refugees on its doorstep.

There's a Presidential statement due tonight some time, and another one expected tomorrow.

Update: WH spokesperson issues statement, confirms that the WH has been getting the same reports we've been getting, calls the test a "provocative act," and "defiance of the will of the international community." Looking for a link.

Bush administration on the phone tonight with China and S. Korea.

Update: Bryan analyzes the likely diplomatic and military, err, fall-out from this test. Read the whole thing.

I'm having trouble staying awake (kinda wimpy, I know), so if I trail off in mid-sentence or something, you'll know what the deal is.

Update: Was Kim Jong Il's big explosion an anti-climax? American intel officials are saying it was "more fizz than pop," according to Fox. According to an AP alert, "South Korean expert says North Korea's test was relatively small, equivalent to 550 tons of TNT."

Hmm, paging Bob Owens.

Allah makes this point:

Update: I saw this report a few minutes ago at FR but dismissed it. Now Fox has a teaser up about it. Could the yield really have been only 550 tons of TNT? That’s half a kiloton. Compare and contrast:

The Boeing 767 and Boeing 757 that slammed into the WTC were carrying a combined total of about 200,000 pounds of jet fuel, and the combined power of the explosions was about 1,000 tons of TNT, a kiloton.

550 tons is an awfully small explosion, relatively speaking. Are we sure this was nuclear?

Update: Meanwhile, John Kerry is taking a very serious, tough stance on the pressing, major issues of October 2004. Can I get an 'Amen' for this guy not being President?

Update: AP rounds up possible next steps.

All right, I'm gonna head to bed for now. Allah's the nightowl, so check in with him if you're jonesing. I'll be back soon.



View in ascending order View in descending order
Sowell Disciple writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 11:13 AM
Where's Jimmy Carter?
If there had been an actual test, wouldn't Jimmy Carter have been there to observe, celebrate, and report it back to "his" USA?
Lone Wolfy writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 10:42 AM
Gamma Ray Burst?
The only way to absolutely confirm this test is did we detect the gamma ray burst that always occurs during a nuclear explosion. I have serious doubts that the lower limit of a nuclear explosion is as low as half a kiloton of TNT.
Patriot writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 9:29 AM
Who Built Korean Nuclear reactors
Donald Rumsfeld, our DEFENSE joke --- profits from sales of Tamiflu thru his stocks in Gilead ----- and his share of the contracts to built those Korean nuclear reactors.
Connect his spider web contacts by reading up on him at Wikipedia --- including selling Iraq helicopters, being onsite in Iraq as special envoy when Saddam gassed. And his recommendations to open up contacts. And letters to presidents about regime change ----way before 9/11.
Guess he's at least ONE of the puppeteers running our "Dwarf President" and his plutocracy.
Had to look up definition --- but it is exact description of our kleptocrats. More than the planet Pluto should be demoted.
Sorry -------their infinite greed in the face of our dead soldiers is makiing me upchuck.
Just turned blue.
shades writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 9:21 AM
The Positive Side
IF, indeed this was a test and the evidence is really pointing that way, there is a plus side to the actions of the People's Paradise of NK.

First off, if I were in Chicomtown, I'd be more than just a bit worried. Yes, their puppet finally got to play with his toy. However their puppet is also a few bricks short of a heavy load. Whose to say, when push comes to shove, he wouldn't lob one their way. And even if he didn't, they are very much well with tne fallout zone. The leaders of PRC might want to FINALLY rein in the little bad boy.

Second, this only will add fuel to such nations as Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea to possibly building their own nuclear weapons arsenals. This would certainly become another worry for the PRC. For should such happen, and it could very well happen, it would leave them basically surrounded by nations with nuke capability and more importantly, the ability to deliver those said weapons. I have said as much at my website
( http://tbbc01.tripod.com/id34.html )
when NK tested their long range missle over the past summer.

Third, hopefully this will continue to spur on the need for a missle shield. I would hope that instead of the above mentioned nations developing their own arsenals that we and they could jointly develop a spectacular shield system that would render Jong's new toy useless. (Of course you will hear the Librocrat pundits saying that it will only increase his paranoia and egg him on to use it. What needs to be done is giving him incentives to desist. And where have I heard that before?)
Sir Randall writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 8:38 AM
'Amen' on John Kerry
Mary...

Two important things:

#1..
President Bush was RIGHT about N.Korea,
And he was RIGHT about John Bolton...

#2...
The Democrats would have given us Al Gore in 2000,
And John Kerry in 2004...

Thank God GW is our Commander-in-Chief...



jerubaal writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 4:35 AM
A poorly built nuke can fizzle
anbd produce a very low yield explosion. It would make for a nasty radioactive mess anyway though.
Dave M writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 1:21 AM
USGS is showing a 4.2 in NK
The USGS is now showing a 4.2 in NK.

I have not yet seen a focal mechanism but the depth of 0.0 sure starting to look like it.

Dave M writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 12:39 AM
not related to Tonga
MacZed:

Did this have anything to do with the Tonga Earthquake?

A quick check of the focal mechanism shows it to be a normal earthquake and not an explosion (for those of you not geogeeks- normal refers to a specific type of earthquake)

I did a quick check of several sesmic stations on the west coast. The ones I checked didn't show any sign of an earthquake in Korea. The stations I looked at in Japan were too noisy to tell. All of them clearly showed the Tonga earthquake.

That doesn't mean it didn't happen but it put constraints on the yield.

Why would the Chinese be notified 20 minutes before the Test and not attack?

You'd have to destroy as much of their nuclear infrastructure as possible before they test. My suspicion is that the planners think taking their nukes out is either unfeasable or would result in NK using them

As for the UN ... Well-they are the UN. 'nuff said.
IfAFrogHadWings writes: Monday, October, 09, 2006 12:10 AM
missile tests
I don't think North Korea is going to be allowed any more missile tests--not that reach their target anyway. All their missile tests are now going to be an anti-missile test for America, or maybe Japan. If the North Koreans don't allow us to inspect the missile payload in person, we'll just assume the worst.

AP writes: Sunday, October, 08, 2006 11:24 PM
I hoped
I hoped it was unconfirmed, but NK now confirms it and is saying it was successful. Michelle Malkin, Drudge Report, CNN, Fox News, all are now confirming.
tdau1997 writes: Sunday, October, 08, 2006 11:17 PM
And then there's this...
http://www9.sbs.com.au/theworldnews/region.php?id=131826®ion=2

NORTH KOREA TESTS NUCLEAR BOMB
9.10.2006. 13:06:06


North Korea has confirmed it has conducted its first ever nuclear test, fulfilling last week's threat to begin testing nuclear weapons.

South Korea's foreign ministry announced it detected a 3.58-magnitude seismic tremor, immediately following confirmation from the North's official news agency.

"The government has received a report that there was a tremor of 3.58 sensed from North Korea's northern Hamkyong province at 10:36am (11:30 AEST)," said foreign ministry spokesman Choo Kyu.

Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency confirmed the test had taken place, saying it was carried out safely and successfully.

"The nuclear test was conducted by 100 percent of our wisdom and technology," the agency said.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has called in an emergency meeting of related ministers to discuss the issue.

North Korea sparked international condemnation last week when it announced it would conduct a nuclear test following "ongoing threats" from the United States.

More information as it comes to hand.
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