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Friday, January 18, 2008
We're Not In Iowa Any Longer...
Posted by: Jonathan Garthwaite at 12:00 PM
Perhaps evangelical voters are the most motivated and will brave rain, sleet, or snow to vote BUT we're not in Iowa where Huckabee beat McCain by 30% among evangelicals.  In New Hampshire and Michigan, his advantage nearly disappeared and a new Fox News poll shows more parity between the candidates in this key voter demographic.

Like in Iowa, about 6 of 10 likely voters in the South Carolina Republican primary are Evangelical Christians, and 23 percent of this group says they are backing Huckabee and 22 percent McCain, followed by Romney at 16 percent.

McCain is helped by the fact that only about one of three voters say it is important for them to share their candidate’s religious beliefs. A 66 percent majority says it is not important.

About half of Republicans in South Carolina are looking for a candidate who "stands up" for what he believes (47 percent), while others want a "true conservative" (21 percent) or a candidate who has the "right experience" (19 percent).

For voters saying the most important quality is for a candidate to "stand up" for his beliefs, 26 percent back McCain and 23 percent Huckabee. Those wanting a "true conservative" are most likely to be supporting Huckabee (26 percent) and Romney (24 percent), followed by Fred Thompson (16 percent). Nearly half of those wanting a candidate with the right experience are backing McCain.



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BG writes: Friday, January, 18, 2008 12:27 PM
Evangelicals
Huck got a disproportionate percent of Evangelicals because he camped out there for 9 months. He did not have time to do retail politics in MI. He has had some time to work SC and may do a little better than he did in MI.

McCain won NH because he camped out there for months and worked it hard. He also won it by 19 points against Bush in 2000 and could build on that. Rudy vacated to help McCain.

In states where there is no cross over vote and all of the candidates are running and there is no time for retail politics the Evangelical vote will divide up.
paddy o'furniture writes: Friday, January, 18, 2008 12:30 PM
Why does everybody....
..just assume that Evangelicals are all in lock-step voting for Huckabee?
That is no more true than that all blacks will vote for Obama.
I'm an Evangelical, but he's not even in my top three....

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