Tuesday, January 08, 2008
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Earning the Barfight and Bar Scene Demographics
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Posted by:
Mary Katharine Ham at
10:08 AM
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Lileks on the candidates:
I like John McCain. He seems like the sort of guy you could have a beer with, right up to the moment where he smashes the bottle on the table and jams it in your face over something you said six years ago. I like Rudy Guiliani, partly because his second-term sex scandal would involve someone closer to Teri Hatcher’s age than Jamie Lynn Spears. But mostly because he is smart, agrees with me on enough things, and does not appear to have a heart ruled by sentiment. I do not want a National Dad or even a Cool Brother (double-meaning unintended) for the President; I want someone with JFK’s optimism, Roosevelt’s steel, Truman’s irascibility, and so forth. But it’s all for naught if the Obamaboom continues, because he has the zeitgeist at his back and a sail the size of an IMAX screen. People will vote for him because they want to be part of something larger, and that’s a rare and potent thing these days. Whether that’s a wise thing to do in perilous times depends on whether people think we’re living in perilous times, I suppose. We’ll see.
Yes, that's my sense about Obama, too. Some people in this thread took me to task for thinking he won't get blown apart as the general starts, but here's the deal. He already got young people to turn out in Iowa. I've watched his organization on Facebook and MySpace and wondered if this might be the time reaching out to the young might actually translate into votes.
In the past, Republicans have relied on young people, who naturally lean liberal, not turning out. Obama has the potential to change the turnout dynamic, for real, not just as an empty promise. And, at that rally last night, with an understanding of how people my age and slightly younger work, I had a vision of a pretty powerful swell for Obama.
Think about it. Obama is becoming the candidate that it's "cool" to back in the same way that it's "cool" to attend anti-war rallies and protests against Bush. One doesn't need to be interested in politics or informed to gain the socially-conscious cred one gleans from mere appearance at an Obama rally. One must only be default lefty and have some time on one's hands, as most college kids do. Those people aren't often swayed by more cerebral discussions of Obama's weaknesses, either.
As supporting Obama becomes the cool thing to do, plenty of college students with time on their hands start turning out to rallies and volunteer events, thereby making the rallies and volunteer events more fun and exciting. The rally last night was the best time I had here because the atmosphere was fun. The excitement was not manufactured. As they become fun and "talked about," future rallies and events draw more young people. It's a cycle, and to think that a good chunk of those new voters won't turn out, since he's attracting more young people than anyone ever has, is a bad bet.
And finally, when the rallies are attracting all these young people-- and, judging by the crowd last night, many of them are attractive co-eds-- backing Obama eventually becomes a way to get the ladies. His rallies become a place to hook up, as they already have to some extent:
One ardent Obama supporter (who declined to give his name because he works in politics) says he'll attend both the rally and the after-party, and he doesn't expect to be going home alone. He's confident for a reason. "Let's face it: Leftie girls are easy," he says.
It's the Babe Theory of Political Movements in action again. And, it matters.
Update: That being said, the second day in a row of gush, gush, gushing over Obama on MSNBC is utterly ridiculous. The excitement is notable, but they're laying it on really thick. I think Chris Matthews almost had his own crying jag over it.
Update:Ha. Last night, when Obama was defending himself against charges of "being vague," he specifically said, "You can go to my website and read all day about the specific ways I would change things." Or, not.
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I hope Obama gets the nomination so that when Ron Paul faces him in the general election, we will all see who has the longer record, the greatest intelligence, the most substance, the most Constitutional views, and the most humble campaign (i.e. Paul is proposing to reduce the size of federal government when he gets in, whereas Obama wants to build his kingdom). |
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"In the past, Republicans have relied on young people, who naturally lean liberal, not turning out."
The Republicans have further compounded that error by banking on conservatives once again holding their noses and voting for "the lesser of two evils". Don't tempt us. Obama may be that guy. |
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as a 47 yr old man, I can well remember how my outwardly expressed political views in my early 20's were entirely based on what I thought my odds were with one or two girls in particular.
I was disinterested in events, had no political ideas whatsoever, and I loudly stated whatever liberal argument (right to choose, social safety net, bla bla yada yada whatever) I thought would get me laid.
Let's face it, I wasn't all that smart, the arguments SEEMED morally valid, and by golly it worked and I DID get laid, a LOT.
There is NO moral force more likely to sweep a nation than a force which unites young people in pursuit of the kind of moral superiority that gets them laid AND approved of, usually in that order of interest.
If Obama can muster that sort of social wave, he's in like Flint. |
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At least you admit you don't like Huckabee because he is a Christian. I've noticed your anti-Christian bias before. You must really hate it that so many evangelicals are conservatives. We started the conservative movement, before this country was independent. It was Christians that fought for independence. Christians founded this country, including the guy who wrote the Constitution. You have more in common with liberals than the founders. And Huckabee has more in common with the founders. But Christians don't mind if you hold other beliefs. I just don't see why a conservative site like townhall should be so anti-Christian and anti-Huckabee. |
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I agree with your points about history and Christianity, but, to whom are you reponding? |
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MKH will be absorbed to the dark side within a month.
Welcome! I, for one, welcome our new hopeful overlord. |
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brianakira: I am a dork. That's why I write here. I'm also youngish, for someone who writes here, giving me a naturally closer association with the "cool kids" at the rally last night. Ha.
Pinto Man: Are you responding to me? I don't like Huck because he's not conservative enough. He can be Christian all day long. I'm an evangelical Christian, and if you've read the blog for a while, you'd know I'm active in ministry, so I have no anti-Christian bias. I do have an anti- big-government Christian bias.
Stephen: I can comment on the Obama excitement without being drawn in. I'm so too conservative for that nonsense. |
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Collectively put down the crack pipe. |
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Fortunately, even the hottest trends usually burn out in less than ten months. With a little luck, the cute girls will get bored and find something else to interest them by November. |
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We want Hillary as the Dhimmicratic nominee because we could carve her up like a Thanksgiving turkey in a general election.
We do not want Obama to be the nominee.
General elections are decided by independents and that clueless swath of the electorate who describe themselves as 'apolitical.'
Obama will easily appeal to independents and the clueless apolitical crowd.
He'll also bring out the college kids, just as M-Kat says.
Look how Arnold Scwarzenegger steamrolled to victory here in CA.
That's what a general election might look like if Obama is the nominee.
Pray for Hillary.
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That, I am. And, I do not smoke crack. That was a low characterization. That's like saying all Obama supporters are there for sex or that all Huckabee supporters are evangelical blind-bats. Let's stick to the issues here. Just go see who has a doctorate degree, has written a book, delivered over 4000 babies, and been as straight as an arrow in his congressional record. Go examine the man's credibility and weigh the issues. Quit the low attacks, Flagon. |
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The Constitution is not a conspiracy theory. |
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One thing is already happening with the change movement!!!! Bush just announced that he is bring some troops home. God bless him as he should not have engaged in this war in the first place. |
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I have read one column after another that tries to somehow undercut the Obama appeal on the very valid grounds of lack of substance, experience, whatever. What the columnist here don't get is all of the factors innumerated in Ham's column. Frankly as a liberal, I hope as few Republicans as possible will read this and will continue to rip other Republicans and that the eventual nominee goes as negative as possible if Obama is the Dem candidate. |
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