Monday, February 04, 2008
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Really Crunching The Numbers
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Posted by:
Hugh Hewitt at
2:28 PM
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Right for America gives you a close look at the delegate math.
Bottom line:
The table below shows what Romney must do for victory if the likely scenario above plays out on 2/5. Essentially - Romney must win the three remaining winner-take all states AND he must beat McCain by an average margin of 61.45% to 38.54% in the other states. That is how Romney can reach the magic number of 1,191 delegates. This isn't pretty, but (given the opposition to McCain in the GOP) this isn't out of reach. And of course Romney can do better than expected tomorrow, making his path forward easier still.
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I've been meaning to post since Hugh posted this good message about the real statistic: the percentage of remaining delegates needed to win. Using the numbers I got from CNN, (714/286/181 with 16 for Ron Paul) we find that McCain needs 40.32 of...here |
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In the barely noticed Maine Republican caucus that wrapped up on Sunday, Mitt Romney captured an estimated 52% of the vote, trouncing John McCain's 21%, despite the state's two moderate Republican Senators (and fellow Gang of 14ers) Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins actively supporting McCain.here |
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