Thursday, June 21, 2007
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Early State Whiplash
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Posted by:
Patrick Ruffini at
10:45 AM
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About a month ago, the McCain campaign had a legitimate argument that they were ahead or polling strong in the early-voting states. Today,that's no longer the case. In fact, McCain today is weaker in the early states than he is nationally. That shock South Carolina poll gave us a taste of it. Now he's at 6% in Iowa. And 11% in Florida. Nationally, he's still at 15%, but falling. This gives us a sense of the fickleness of basing your campaign on early state polling. The early states are more sensitive to wild swings in opinion because the voters there are paying attention. If your momentum is sagging, you'll see it in the early state polls soon enough. Whichis why McCain went from first to fourth in many of these polls.Eventually, the rest of the country follows. Top dog status in early states is a moving target, much more so than national polls.That's why it's way to soon to tell who will have the momentum there come January. Mitt Romney's first place position in Iowa and New Hampshire was attained with relative ease, but it can also be lost just as easily. What we do know from history is that the early states won't vote for candidates with falling momentum. Early states may sometimesbe ahead of their time, rewarding surging niche candidates who fail elsewhere, but they are seldom behind it.
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McCain is going to be a major problem. He will raise 13 mill this Q and that will keep him alive. His burn rate is higher than Romney's but He should have about 8 mill to limp along with. He is a skilled politican who can run a very dirty campaign when necessary.
Thompson is disorganized right now and blows about every 3rd live tv appearance (London is the latest). I really wonder about him in a real instead of a virtual campaign. However, he is Southern with a natural constiuency.
How the anti Mormon thing plays and how well Thompson gets a real campaign together will determine if Rudy, Romney or Thompson get FL. |
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I would agree with Thaale's regional analysis and add some comments. Romney is strongest in the Orlando area. In other states his base is in the exburbs and suburbs. He has the potential do well in FL because there are so many exburb and suburbs.
He has to find a way to reach those voters the way he has reached them in other states. FL is a large state that will require a different strategy.
A FL Datamar poll had Romney at 17 behind Thompson at 22. Datamar has Romney leading CA.
Datamar seems to poll only Repubican voters who voted in the last election. I really like that sampling approach. It is the same one that most campaigns use for tracking. However, I find it really hard to beleive Romney is winning in CA. I am pretty sure his real numbers among actual FL voters are higher than 8.
For Romney to win FL he has to take votes from Rudy and Thompson. |
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If McCain was in the ring, his corner would have thrown in the sponge as soon as he began taking his butal beating over immigration. The poor guy's time is over and his handlers should tell him so. Maybe McCain thinks if he hangs on he'll be offered the second spot on the Bloomberg ticket. |
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And some former NYers will vote for Fred, and some southerners will vote for Mitt or McCain. Come on. Does saying Obama will get the black vote and Edwards the white southern vote imply that every single one of million of voters in each group will vote for that candidate without exception?
Regional polling in FL supports my generalizations: Giuliani does well in SE Florida, McCain well in the panhandle, Thompson well in less urban areas. That doesn't imply 100% ownership of any voter by any candidate.
Anyway, don't worry about whom to support. If you're serving overseas and attempt to vote via absentee ballot, Democrat election supervisors are just going to throw your ballot out, as in 2000 ; |
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If it's okay with you, we military would like to make our own choices. I'll salute John McCain any day of the week and twice on Sundays, but I'm not anxious to vote for him.
I like Fred, though Mitt and Rudy are both great candidates in my opinion. |
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Joe, he was at 8% in March (per Strategic Vision), then down to 5% in May - now he's back up to 8%. Of course, with polls having a 4%-5% margin of error, I really shouldn't even say he's been down or up - he's been consistently at the 6%-7% range all year.
I don’t think you can blame Romney’s lack of effort in Florida. Actually, 7% is quite a good showing for a Boston left-Republican to gain outside of his home area. Rudy is going to get the transplanted NY vote, McCain the military vote, and Fred the southern vote. Mitt seems to have a few supporters among the transplanted midwesterns who are concentrated in the SW Florida area – but saving an influx of a few million more Ohioans into that area in the next seven months, there’s no reason to expect any more from him than he’s already showing. |
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Mr McCain, do us a favor (not to mention what is the honorable thing). Stop wasting the GOP's money. Graciously bow out of this race--you've already lost. Go back to the Senate where you belong, and where they need all the help they can get. |
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Romney's in position to take 3 of the first 5 states. This will only help him in some of the other bigs.
Iowa: Mason-Dixon 06/13 - 06/16
Romney 25%
Giuliani 15%
Thompson 17%
McCain 6%
New Hampshire: CNN/WMUR 06/06-06/11
Romney 28%
Giuliani 20%
McCain 20%
Thompson 11%
South Carolina: Mason-Dixon 06/13-06/15
Thompson 25%
Giuliani 21%
Romney 11%
McCain 7%
California: Datamar 06/11-06/11
Romney 32%
Giuliani 15%
McCain 5%
Thompson 5%
Florida: Strategic Vision 06/15-06/17
Giuliani 30%
Thompson 24%
McCain 11%
Romney 8%
Michigan: American Res. Group 05/04-05/07
Romney 24%
McCain 22%
Giuliani 19%
Thompson 8%
Nevada: ARG 06/15-06/19
Romney 24%
Giuliani 21%
Thompson 17%
McCain 13%
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It's very, very early in the game and these polls are very, very sketchy.
What it looks like is those who were on the McCain bandwagon have jumped to the Fred bandwagon, at least for the time being. Meanwhile the undecided numbers remain very high.
What do you expect? It's summer of 2007. Even people in Iowa aren't paying that much attention right now.
The only clear trend right now is that McCain is in a tailspin, but even this doesn't portend his political demise at this early point in the game.
...and bashing Romney on a Ruffini post is either a sign of ignorance or obsession. Ruffini is a Giuliani guy. Some people here need to pick up a clue while you're getting a life. |
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The state polls tend to be volitile and there is dramatic difference from one poll (methods) to another. If you get 3 or more polls all saying the same thing (like IA and NH) the results are a lot more solid.
There is still a lot of undecided at this point and fluid votes. However, I would rather be Romney and winning IA, NH, NV, MI and CA at the moment than leading in the national polls. The state polls are a much better indication of campaign strength especially for lesser known candidates.
Romney has a world class ground organization in IA and NH to back up his poll numbers and get them into votes. The ground game is more important than the poll numbers.
The key question is whether Romney can do in SC and/or especially FL what he has done so far in IA and NH.
I looked at the historic effects of winning the early primaries last night and winning early changes your poll numbers big time in the states that follow.
If Romney takes IA and NH that will move his SC and FL numbers just before the elections.
Romney has the right strategy especially for someone who is not well known nationally. I wish his national numbers were better but as long as it does not hurt his fund raising it does not matter at this point. |
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There is a lot of movement in the polls. People have not made up their minds. But trends mean a lot of McCain has been gradually declining for a long time, immigration reform just finished him off.
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McCain is tanking because there is NO more support for him in the GOP. The recent Amnesty bill is simply the straw that has broken the camel's back for many, many of us. His strong support of the war had led plenty of Republicans who have been unhappy with his campaign reform-free speech suppression bill, his Gang of 14 Fiasco, and his general sleaziness going back to being one of Keating 5, to consider him as a potentially viable candidate -- all he would have had to do was come to Canossa a little bit and he could have held the base. But no, he cozzens up to Teddy and Jorge with the Shamnesty bill!
Stick a fork in McCain, he's done. |
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