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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Exit Poll-Mania!
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:30 PM
Rapidly changing numbers from the HuffPo sources show a 12-14- point win for Obama in North Carolina and a 5-7-point win for Clinton in Indiana.

The angry Reverend wreaked havoc:
Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just under 50% of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and North Carolina say the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy was an important factor in their voting, per ABC News' Polling Unit.
The economy rears its head:
More than 60 percent of respondents in both Indiana and North Carolina cited the economy as their top concern.
The early voters in N.C. won't show up in exit polls, but there are more than 400,000 of them. Who are they? They look like likely Hillary voters, but anecdotally it seemed there were a lot of very young voters in reporting on early voting:
Over a third (37%) were white women, 30% were over age 60 and more than a third were college graduates. Only 7% were first-time voters. So far this season we've seen that Hillary Clinton has held an advantage among those voting early, but Barack Obama has made a major effort to get his supporters to cast ballots early in this go round.
ey-Hay, illary-Hay, ix-nay on the electability-ay argument-ay.

Obama's gonna need to drink a whole lot more PBR to grab white, blue-collar voters. (For the record, I'd be happy to help.)

Hillary garnering veritably Republican-looking percentages of black voters now.

Will the Operation Chaos effect show up? Anecdotally, by the way, I've talked to three Operation Chaos voters in Durham.









Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Dem Divide Grows Ever-Greater
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:10 PM
Ouch:
Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee -- that's (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.

In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they'd be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee -- I believe that's the highest number recorded for that question, too.

The percentage of Clinton voters who say they'd choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40% in Indiana. Put it another way: in North Carolina, less than HALF of folks who voted today for Hillary Clinton are ready to say today that they'd definitely vote for Obama in a general election.
And, no matter what you think of him, Republicans managed to nominate the one Republican most likely to lure the sore losers away from the Dem ticket entirely.





Tuesday, May 06, 2008
'Steady' But 'Not Tremendously Heavy' Sounds Accurate in Durham
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 5:45 PM
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DURHAM, N.C.-- From my own unscientific investigation of the Obama-leaning precincts in my area of Durham, awash in Duke professors and black voters, it looks like turn-out was, indeed, steady but not overwhelming today.

A nearby elementary school reported 488 voters by about 4:30 p.m., which the chief judge of the precinct said was better than other primaries, but she didn't sound overly enthused. The guy manning the ballot counter said the precinct usually sees about 300 in a day, so the number could end up far above that by the time the after-work rush is over.

A nearby middle school reported 140 voters by 10 a.m. A long-time voter at the precinct placed the average around that same time at 120 during the past couple of primary elections. I checked back at about 5 p.m. and it was 312, which was good, but not outstanding, according to the woman at the ballot box. She also noted that many people had voted on the last day of early voting, Saturday. The entire state reported long lines for early voting this weekend, some two hours long and many populated by young voters, which bodes well for Obama.

A local high school was a slightly different story. Early this morning, it had seen 84 voters by 8 a.m., but I'm not sure of the afternoon total.

I talked to a poll watcher in Jacksonville, N.C., which would be a Hillary area, and the story was much the same-- good turn-out, but not outstanding.

All of this could, of course, change in the evening rush, but it sounds in tune with what the state board of elections is saying. A very small cross-section, but for what it's worth, this is a slice of "Obama Country."

Update:
Meet the voters of Durham. I'm a fan of the lovely sticker on the right (Republicans for Voldemort):

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Another Word on Turnout: 'Not Tremendously Heavy'
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 3:06 PM
DURHAM, N.C.-- My gut feeling is that the Obama blow-out in N.C. is not happening in the numbers people are projecting. I thought yesterday, judging by the apparent momentum in her favor and the large rural population of the state, to which Bill Clinton has been giving much attention, Hillary would lose, but not by as much as anyone expected.

I talked to a friend in the Sandhills yesterday (down in the "Poverty Belt" of southern North Carolina), who was attending a family get-together when I got him on the phone. The rural, white population of that area is unabashedly "Hillary Country," according to him, and other family members (white, Southern males) yelled out, "We're all for Hillary!" in the background. True, the state is home to several Obama-friendly, high-population urban areas, but it's also a large state with plenty of country out there prone to go Hillary either on merit or as part of Operation Chaos.

Now WRAL is reporting turnout is steady but not crazy.
State elections director Gary Bartlett said turnout was "steady ... not tremendously heavy." The presidential nomination seemed to overshadow primaries for governor, Senate and statewide office.
I'm in Durham (my hometown) at the moment, which has a black population of about 40 percent, and is otherwise populated with white, liberal college professors with the exception of the Ham family. This is "Obama Country." I'm gonna wander around and make some calls to figure out what kind of turnout they're really seeing at precincts around here.





Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Obama's Image Control in Charlotte
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 2:39 PM

I wonder if they were wearing Abercrombie & Fitch shirts:
About three-quarters of the 9,000 people who turned up to see Barack Obama at a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday evening were black. Yet, the section of seating directly behind where he spoke was filled overwhelmingly by whites.

The Obama campaign would not say how seats were allocated but it appeared as though a conscious decision had been made to ensure that television pictures showed the senator against a backdrop of white faces.
I think they're littering the desired seats with New Balance shoes, North Face fleeces, and DVDs of "The Wire" and other high-quality HBO programming. In fact, Oprah's staff is arranging the giveaway.

I'm headed to an Obama rally in Raleigh tonight, where I'll try to position myself so as to up his white-people cred and collect the goods. It's at Reynolds Coliseum (former home to the N.C. State basketball team), which means they're expecting quite the crowd. Will Michelle smile? Will Obama play presumptive nominee? Will I overhear a conversation about the skyrocketing price of organic milk and juggling it with the cost of carbon-offsets? The suspense is killing me.

Clinton's election watch party is in the more rural town of Kernersville, slightly west of here, so I may hop over there if possible, but the Clinton bigwigs are in Indiana tonight, which means I'd likely be treated only to another glimpse of Gov. Easley.





Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Bubba's Charm Outshines Michelle in N.C. Small Towns
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 1:43 PM

RALEIGH, N.C. -- Bill Clinton has been sent on a "Bubba Tour" of the Tarheel State's rural areas, and has managed not to mess up in 49 stops. Could his performance, especially when contrasted with Michelle Obama's boost turnout in Hillary's key demographic?

That's my column for the day:
Bill Clinton evoked the Comeback Kid of old Monday, urging the people of North Carolina to carry his wife to a surprising win on Tuesday. His manner, the crowds he’s pulled, and the sheer number of his stops suggests Clinton may have, at long last, become the asset he was meant to be on the trail—tireless, cheery and charming in the face of substantial odds. Indeed, 49 stops in N.C. without saying something counterproductive and off-message is an accomplishment in itself for the politician formerly known as a master communicator.

He stopped in Sanford, a Sandhills town that hadn’t seen a president since Truman. He stopped in Roxboro, where he reportedly spoke to 2,000 in a town of only 9,000. They are the places where Hillary’s base lives, in Appalachia and along the so-called “Poverty Belt” of southern North Carolina where mill closings and hard times make Hillary’s bread-and-butter message more palpable than Obama’s lofty rhetoric.
Obama and Michelle, not so much with the rural areas:
For his part, Obama hasn’t ventured west of Hickory, just an hour northwest of Charlotte, where Obama’s big-city voters dwell in droves. Bill also stands in stark contrast to Obama’s closest surrogate, Michelle, who spoke extensively in Fayetteville and Charlotte today without cracking a smile at either event. The local evening news showed Clinton’s preternatural, gee-golly glad-hand routine next to Michelle’s dour, stern-faced lectures about Obama’s greatness. The juxtaposition did the Obamas no favors.
Update: Nonetheless, Bob Owens is calling it for Obama after talking to the N.C. Board of Elections about reportedly overwhelming African-American turnout.

Update:
Tea-leaf reading from Ambinder:
What's a scenario where Clinton wins? Let's award her 65% of the white vote and 18 percent of the black vote, and let's assume that black turnout dips to about 29% of the electorate. Clinton wins here by a half a point.
But this sounds like intentional expectations-lowering from Camp Clinton to me.






Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Hillary Does the Top Ten
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 1:39 PM
Reasons she loves America. Watch and compare to Obama's crack at it, in case you remain undecided.

Obama's list was slightly funnier, but the pantsuit crack is good.






Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Heart-ache: Fred Doesn't Speak at McCain Event
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:26 AM
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.-- Both Sen. Richard Burr and Ted Olson took the stage for a few moments, but ol' Fred stayed seated in his light grey summer suit, disappointing the crowd which cheered loudest for him before McCain came out.

So much enthusiasm, and yet the audience is left unsated save for a brief grin and nod when McCain cracks jokes about his old movies. Anyone feeling the deja vu?

Come on, Fred! Give us a few minutes.





Tuesday, May 06, 2008
McCain Speech is About the Constitution, Not the Issues, Confounding Press
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:20 AM
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.-- I suppose it's natural that the press would assume McCain would spend an entire speech about the judicial system talking about policy instead of principles. The beauty of conservatives, however, is that they understand judicial philosophy is not about enacting preferred policies.

This basic understanding is reflected in McCain's prepared speech, which starts and ends with the Constitution.

The press has trouble grasping this important distinction:

Journalists who pressed for details about "the abortion speech" or the "gay marriage speech" were told, repeatedly, that the speech was not about those issues at all, really, and would focus exclusively on McCain's longstanding convictions about judicial nominations and the appropriate power of judges. Ok, ok, that's fine, whatever they wanted to call it.

Well, the McCain campaign was right. There is no mention of abortion, or of same-sex marriage, or of most any particular question that the court has had to decide (two exceptions: the Kelo decision and Newdow.)
But how--how?-- the AP might wonder can McCain offer an "olive branch to the Christian right" in the south without mentioning "abortion" or even gratuitously gay-bashing? Indeed, he's doing it now by appealing to conservatives' intellectual understanding of judicial activism, their resentment at its usurpation of their own democratic decisions, and their inclination to beware the power of that branch of government just as they are wary of the others.

I predict the press will remain stymied, but the audience here is grasping it perfectly.

Update:On the Newdow case, "The 9th Circuit court agreed, as they usually do," prompted a laugh from the crowd. Newdow yields the first applause line when McCain worries "he's gonna catch wind of this and we're all gonna be in trouble when he finds out we met in a chapel."





Tuesday, May 06, 2008
AP Tells the Future on McCain Speech
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 8:50 AM


WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.-- As I mentioned, I'm sitting in the auditorium at Wake Forest University waiting for McCain to arrive and give his judges speech. But who needs me when you've got a couple speech excerpts and the AP writer's imagination:
Republican John McCain castigated Democrat Barack Obama for voting against John Roberts as Supreme Court chief justice in a speech about the kind of judges McCain would nominate.

McCain offered an olive branch to the Christian right in a speech planned for Tuesday at Wake Forest University. The far right has been deeply suspicious of McCain, the expected GOP presidential nominee, because he has clashed with its leaders and worked against them on issues like campaign finance reform.

McCain promised to appoint judges who, in the mold of Roberts and Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, are likely to limit the reach of the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion.

"They would serve as the model for my own nominees if that responsibility falls to me," McCain said in his prepared speech.

Obama likes to talk up his image as someone who works with Republicans to get things done, McCain said. Yet Obama "went right along with the partisan crowd, and was among the 22 senators to vote against this highly qualified nominee," McCain said.

No, he hasn't actually "said" any of these things, which is why I used the future tense in my blog post. McCain, Laphamized! Thanks, AP.






Tuesday, May 06, 2008
McCain to Go After Obama on Judges
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 8:40 AM

I'm in Winston-Salem, N.C. this morning waiting on a speech by John McCain on judges. He'll also be joined by Fred!, Sen. Richard Burr, Sen. Sam Brownback, and Ted Olson. The line to get in stretched the length of the quad on both sides.

There was a small group of protesters outside the Wake Forest University campus setting up signs that said, "We don't need more bad Bush judges." Silly protesters. These would be bad McCain judges. I kid. I kid.

Fred gave a preview of what's to come yesterday on the Glenn and Helen Show.

In this excerpt from the campaign
, McCain goes after Obama on the issue (emphasis mine):

Senator Obama in particular likes to talk up his background as a lecturer on law, and also as someone who can work across the aisle to get things done. But when Judge Roberts was nominated, it seemed to bring out more the lecturer in Sen. Obama than it did the guy who can get things done. He went right along with the partisan crowd, and was among the 22 senators to vote against this highly qualified nominee. 

And just where did John Roberts fall short, by the Senator's measure?  Well, a justice of the court, as Senator Obama explained it -– and I quote -– should share "one's deepest values, one's core concerns, one's broader perspectives on how the world works, and the depth and breadth of one's empathy." 

These vague words attempt to justify judicial activism -– come to think of it, they sound like an activist judge wrote them. And whatever they mean exactly, somehow Sen. Obama's standards proved too lofty a standard for a nominee who was brilliant, fair-minded, and learned in the law, a nominee of clear rectitude who had proved more than the equal of any lawyer on the Judiciary Committee, and who today is respected by all as the Chief Justice of the United States. 

Somehow, by Sen. Obama's standard, even Judge Roberts didn't measure up. And neither did Justice Samuel Alito.  Apparently, nobody quite fits the bill except for an elite group of activist judges, lawyers, and law professors who think they know wisdom when they see it –- and they see it only in each other.

I have my own standards of judicial ability, experience, philosophy, and temperament.  And Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito meet those standards in every respect.  They would serve as the model for my own nominees if that responsibility falls to me.
McCain has clearly forgotten Obama's uplifting and transcendent explanation on Fox News Sunday of how his his vote against Roberts was actually evidence of his ability to work with people on the other side of the aisle.

He'll undoubtedly address the Gang of 14, which I know still rankles conservatives, but you gotta admit (and McCain will point it out) it uncorked the confirmation process nicely.







Monday, May 05, 2008
Fred!'s Back! And, I'm Hangin' With Bill
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 6:30 PM
Photobucket

Talking judges and McCain with Glenn and Helen on their podcast. Go listen for a delightful romp through the downhome bonhomie and policy expertise of the Fredster. Fun times!

I'll be in Winston-Salem tomorrow morning watching McCain and Fred talk at Wake Forest University. And, tonight, I'll be in Raleigh for Bill Clinton's 15th campaign stop in two days. He's bound to say something counterproductive! Stay tuned!





Monday, May 05, 2008
Vote Patti Patton-Bader in America's Favorite Mom Contest
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 5:40 PM

The head angel of Soldiers' Angels has done wonders in the blogosphere and on battlefields with her organization, which is a network of 200,000 volunteers getting letters, care packages, and comfort items to deployed military members and serving the wounded and vets back at home.

Go vote for her at NBC.com in the Military Moms category.
Thanks for all you do, Patti!





Monday, May 05, 2008
Black Velvet if You Link
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:00 AM

Obama avoiding black neighborhoods on the trail. According to reports from N.C., he's also avoiding the largely white, blue-collar mountains of the state. Exactly to whom is he talking?

The headline on this should be: "National daytime talk show host's political judgment better than Obama's by about 15 years."

Frank Rich performs great contortions in order to blame McCain for the fact that our national conversation on race isn't as candid as it could be. Seriously.

Hillary has more balls than you.

Confirmed: Democrats actually have no idea what guns even look like.

Fiorina for VP?

Bill Clinton's still got it! Take that, Obama!

NYT Ombudsman: "Yeah, we forgot to actually quote Jeremiah Wright too much., Our bad."

This weekend in superdelegates.

Strange new respect all over the place.

PBS Ombudsman: "Yeah, we could have been a little harder on Wright in that Moyers interview. Our bad."





Friday, May 02, 2008
Barack Does the 'Top Ten'
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 12:01 PM
Because it's YouTube day at Townhall Blog, apparently. "The Hills" is taking over the world, as you'll see:





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See, what we can now expect is
 Re: Capitol Goes Into Lockdown
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Ronna.....I Approve!
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It just shows
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arch 10:46 PM
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Originalist- Dread.
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Bob.
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Jo
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Here's the deal,
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Bob. 92% of the nation disagrees!
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NeoConScum 10:08 PM
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Munck
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Add homer noble to the list
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