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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Hillary Charges On

Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 11:03 PM

She's declaring victory in Indiana even though CBS is the only outlet to call the race for her.

Clinton tells supporters, "So now it is onto West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and the other states where people are eager to have their voices heard! For too long we have let places like West Virginia and Kentucky slip out of the Democratic column. It's time for that to change and these next primaries are another test. I'm going to work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this mont and I intend to win them in November in the general election!" Also mentions Michigan and Florida.

As she delivered her victory speech, her campaign circulated a memo that said Obama should have performed better since Indiana is an open primary state. "The fact that Indiana was an open primary – Republicans and independents can vote in the Democratic contest – also augured well for Senator Obama," the memo said. "He has regularly argued that he should be nominated because he “appeal[s] to Republicans and Independents in a way that none of the other nominees can.”

The campaign attributes her support for a gas tax holiday, position on NAFTA and universal health care plan to her "win."

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

The Obama Rally, from Two Angles

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 11:00 PM

Reynolds Coliseum on N.C. State's campus seats 12,400 people. It did not seat that many tonight. Behold, the power of political staging:

The Obama rally, as seen on TV:

The Obama rally as seen from the other end of Reynolds:

Those tables in between my position and the rally you saw on TV are about a quarter full of milling, bored, tired reporters. The rally took up maybe a quarter of the floor space in the arena. Part of running a decent campaign is knowing how big a crowd you might have and planning accordingly so as not to embarrass yourselves with a woefully understuffed venue.

I realize it's standard practice to rope off an area of a venue for crowd-wrangling and appearances, but this is a little drastic. McCain's event at the Wait Chapel at Wake Forest today was nicely filled if not overflowing, but I imagine if he had held it at Groves Stadium and filled only the endzone seats, someone in the media might have said something about it. Obama doesn't have such worries, I guess.

I really didn't expect Obama's margin of victory tonight, even being from Durham, where I'm subject to the a high population of the ultimate in latte liberals. The urban turn-out must have been truly remarkable and a lot of it likely showed up in early voting. I would have thought the rural vote would counteract Obama's strengths much better than this.

Update: Another lovely bumper sticker, at the Obama rally:

Don't question their patriotism!

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

>20% GOP in NC and IN Against McCain

Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 10:54 PM

Whoever isn't playing in Operation Chaos isn't voting for McCain, either.

Here's the results from the GOP primaries.

INDIANA:

McCain	295,772	78%
Huckaee	38,643	10%
Paul	28,764	7%
Romney	18,237	5%

NORTH CAROLINA:

McCain	341,307	74%
Huckabee	56,357	12%
Paul	33,936	7%
No Preference	17,925	4%
Keyes	12,352	3%

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Is It Enough?

Posted by: Carol Platt Liebau at 10:46 PM

Barack Obama has won convincingly in North Carolina; Hillary Clinton looks to be securing a much, much narrower win in Indiana. So then the question will become: Is her Indiana victory enough?

No one's talking, of course, about whether it 's enough to keep Hillary in the campaign. She'll go right on like the Energizer Bunny, and a win of any margin in the Hoosier state gives her a fig leaf for doing so.

But what will be interesting to see is whether the superdelegates now start flocking to Obama. Ironically, the Wright debacle may actually have helped Barack. First, there's the "rally 'round the (beleaguered) candidate" phenomenon, where Dems reach out to embrace one of their (beloved) own when he's under fire.

But along with that may be coming a new sense of vulnerability -- a concern that an Obama nomination (which may be inevitable now, considering the continuing margin of elected delegates) may not be as "bulletproof" as many Dems had previously assumed. And with that may be coming a new sense of urgency about bringing the primary season to an end. A very narrow Clinton win in Indiana may not be enough, given all this, to keep a lot of superdelegates for coming out for Barack.

One final note: In his speech tonight, Barack attempted to launch a preemptive strike against any criticism of him -- essentially terming it "divisive" per se. Given the Wright debacle we've all witnessed over the last days and weeks, Obama is poorly positioned to complain about division. After all, isn't it fair to ask him -- why is "divisive" rhetoric unacceptable when it's criticism of him, but for 20 years, it was A-OK for his pastor to indulge in the most over-the-top and divisive kinds of criticism of America?

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Key Excepts from Obama Speech

Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 10:08 PM

-"We can't afford to give John McCain the chance to serve out George Bush's third term."

-“Yes, we know what’s coming, I’m not naive. We’ve already seen it, the same names and labels they always pin on everyone who doesn’t’ agree with all their ideas, the same efforts to distract us from the issues that affect our lives by pouncing on every gaff and association and fake controversy in the hopes the media will play along.”

-He will end divisions between Democrats and Republicans, “not by duplicating the same tactics and the same strategies as the other side because that will lead us down the same path of polarization and gridlock. We will end it by telling the truth. We will end it by telling the truth forcefully, repeatedly, confidently and by trusting the American people will embrace the need for change even when it’s coming from an imperfect messenger.”

-“The other side can label and name call all they want. But I trust the American people.”

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Obama Takes the Stage

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 9:25 PM

RALEIGH, N.C.-- Obama plays the unity card early, congratulating Hillary on what looks to be a probable win in Indiana (to shouts of "Not yet! Not yet!), calling her a tough opponent, and insisting that the party will come together for either candidate to defend against McCain's "third Bush term."

Is it just me or does it look weak to start talking right off the bat about what might happen if "one of us" loses? It seems to me Hillary wouldn't give that rhetorical ground in a similar position.

I'm sitting in the upper level bleachers at Reynolds Coliseum, where they sequestered the late arrivers once the floor and bleachers in the TV shot were properly staged and all the press had been ushered in. There's a group of about 100 enthusiastic Obama supporters up here who are witnessing the staging of a political event for the first time and finding it curious. They're craning their necks to see down into the approximate 1/4 of the coliseum filled with the stage, supporters, and press. That area is curtained off and blocked off for spectators in the upper levels except for right behind Obama, where the upper decks are packed. Directly below them is the virtually empty other 3/4 of the gym floor and lower bleachers.

"Why'd they set it up like this?" people keep asking. I'm sure it looks very full on TV. For what it's worth, I think the Obama rally I attended in New Hampshire was bigger than this.

I'm glad to see that Obama has taken care of white-people placement and is surrounded by pink shirts. Maybe it's a "Victoria's Secret PINK" promotion this time instead of A&F, ABC?

Obama's sounding a bit more lofty than he has in the past week, and noticeably adding some toughness to his voice, it sounds like. "This is the time to END IT," he says of politics as usual. Much less laconic than I've heard from him before. "We will end it by telling the truth. We will end it by telling the truth forcefully, repeatedly, confidently." I will call this his new "cojones" voice. It's falling a bit flat for me, but it looks like he's trying.

Update: That was it? Gone are the days of the 45-minute acceptance speech, huh? Has he learned humility? I would have expected him to act more like a winner, what with the media poised to do in Hillary tomorrow. But perhaps he's preserving his nice-guy image and letting the press do the dirty work for him.

Update: There were smatterings of grumbling and booing for Hillary, relatively quiet and under control, whenever Obama mentioned her. They were quelled pretty quickly, but there was definite discontent, and even some snickering at times.

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

'Too Early' to 'Too Close' in IN, Obama On in NC

Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 9:12 PM

MSNBC says Indiana has now changed from "too early" to call to "too close" to call. Stay tuned...

Now, Obama's on stage in NC. No Abercrombie boys behind him today, MKH. Just a blue-shirted polo wearing boy and some moms in pink. Oddly, they're all white which seems strange since he just won NC with the black vote.

He's making a bunch of unity pitches. "Ultimately this race is not about Hillary Clinton, it is not about Barack Obama, it is not about John McCain," Obama says. "It is about you."

Goes on about going forward as a "united Democratic party" and we "cannot afford to let John McCain serve out George Bush's third term." Says the "planet is in peril," bashes tax breaks for CEO's and health care for the "healthy and the wealthy."

I dunno about you guys, but Obama's speech sounds a little off today. Sort of stuttery here and there like he's unsure of the next line.

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Taking Bets

Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 8:34 PM

Ok, I'm going to assume Hillary wins Indiana.

How many times do you think she'll ask for donations on HillaryClinton.com in her victory speech? And what reason is she going to give why North Carolina doesn't matter?

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Democrat Donkey is Superdelegate

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 8:19 PM

While we wait for Indiana to come in, this diversion is kind of odd but interesting ...

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Fox Calls N.C. for Obama

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:50 PM

No word on the margin. He won black voters, 91-6, ~~economy voters 58-40ish~~ (Check that. I think I got that reversed.), change voters 77-20-something.

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Obama Dominates Black Vote in NC

Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 7:48 PM

Obama takes 91 percent of black voters in North Carolina.

Expect talk about Obama's "race chasm" tomorrow. This phrase is shorthand for describing the the states Obama is prone to lose where there population is 6-17 percent black, like Indiana. On the flip side, he's won states with black populations less than six percent, like Iowa and more than 17 percent, like North Carolina.

For more on this read here.

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Al Franken's Accountant

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 7:45 PM

Al Franken doesn't think his accountant is good enough, nor smart enough. Just ask him and he will tell you as such. According to Franken, his accountant of 18 years, Alan Chanzis is to blame for all of Franken's recently uncovered financial woes -- and not the company's CEO & CFO, which would happen to be Al Franken.

So as Franken continues to blame Chanzis for everything short of global warming, one is left to wonder if the accountant is nearing the point at which he will talk to clear his name and affirm his competence. So far there has been silence as Chanzis has yet to talk because, in his words, "I've been told to say, 'No comment.'"

Doesn't sound like someone on board with the silence plan does it? Also who is telling him not to talk? Franken?

At what point does Chanzis speak to either reaffirm he has provided 18 years of incompetent service to Al Franken, and any other celebrity clients he and his firm specialize in servicing, or to contradict Franken's transparent efforts to pass the buck and have the account play the patsy?

Tags: Franken senate

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

The Red Star of Hope Beckons Obamacoms

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:40 PM

I've heard about the so-called "Obamacans," Republicans who allegedly fall head over heels for Obama's message of hope.

I'm assuming the sign above, spotted in Durham, is targeting "Obamacoms," the 20-something, untucked, college-educated students of Marx and fans of Che who respond to the red star with a proletariat pang in their little, free hearts.

Perhaps it was designed for the "portion of the hardcore left that thinks Wright and Ayers are a feature, not a bug."

Anyone else seen this sign before?

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Exit Poll-Mania!

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:30 PM

Rapidly changing numbers from the HuffPo sources show a 12-14- point win for Obama in North Carolina and a 5-7-point win for Clinton in Indiana.

The angry Reverend wreaked havoc:

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just under 50% of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and North Carolina say the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy was an important factor in their voting, per ABC News' Polling Unit.

The economy rears its head:

More than 60 percent of respondents in both Indiana and North Carolina cited the economy as their top concern.

The early voters in N.C. won't show up in exit polls, but there are more than 400,000 of them. Who are they? They look like likely Hillary voters, but anecdotally it seemed there were a lot of very young voters in reporting on early voting:

Over a third (37%) were white women, 30% were over age 60 and more than a third were college graduates. Only 7% were first-time voters. So far this season we've seen that Hillary Clinton has held an advantage among those voting early, but Barack Obama has made a major effort to get his supporters to cast ballots early in this go round.

ey-Hay, illary-Hay, ix-nay on the electability-ay argument-ay.

Obama's gonna need to drink a whole lot more PBR to grab white, blue-collar voters. (For the record, I'd be happy to help.)

Hillary garnering veritably Republican-looking percentages of black voters now.

Will the Operation Chaos effect show up? Anecdotally, by the way, I've talked to three Operation Chaos voters in Durham.

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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Dem Divide Grows Ever-Greater

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 7:10 PM

Ouch:

Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee -- that's (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that.

In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they'd be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee -- I believe that's the highest number recorded for that question, too.

The percentage of Clinton voters who say they'd choose McCain over Obama in a general election is approaching 40% in Indiana. Put it another way: in North Carolina, less than HALF of folks who voted today for Hillary Clinton are ready to say today that they'd definitely vote for Obama in a general election.

And, no matter what you think of him, Republicans managed to nominate the one Republican most likely to lure the sore losers away from the Dem ticket entirely.