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Wednesday, May 07, 2008
One Sweet Deal
Posted by: John Campbell at 3:18 PM

Despite a much needed revamp of the entire farm bill, conferees continue to struggle through negotiations, but there is at least one group of planters who will come out ahead.  However, despite this congressional gridlock, there is at least one group of planters who continue to make money off the old farm bill. Sugar cane and sugar beet growers have actually managed to increase the size of their proverbial pot in the new package. Why? Because of government sponsored mandates for a “sugar-to-ethanol” program in the United States.

The U.S. Sugar industry has long enjoyed the comfort of a federal security blanket.  With interlocking price supports and import quotas, sugar tycoons have been able to sell their product in the marketplace with little or no foreign competition.  However, with the implementation of free trade agreements such as the 2005 Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) and new provisions in NAFTA, the sweet deal U.S. growers had was about to be disrupted.  Not to be outdone, a strong lobbying effort was launched on behalf of sugar growers in order to help regain their cozy and secure spot in the U.S. market.

If these provisions in the Farm Bill are implemented, the price for U.S. Sugar (which is already above the global price) will increase, with additional mandates to encourage part of the sugar market towards ethanol production.  In addition, the U.S. based ethanol industry also benefits from high tariffs limiting ethanol imports, mostly on sugar derived ethanol from Brazil.

This is a sour deal and contrary to proven free market principles. Ethanol tariffs combined with the sugar subsidies keep Americans from accessing ethanol from its most efficient source, which is sugar. 






Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Hillary Stayin' Alive
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 1:34 PM
This morning, I wrote that there was a 30 percent change Hillary would get out this week.  I was just on the Fox News "Live Desk" with Martha MacCallum, and revised it down to 10 percent.

Last night's results mean the pressure on her to get out has been turned up a few notches.  As MKH noted, George McGovern is urging Hillary to get out.  He is, after all, the expert of how Democrats can lose a general election by a landslide -- so maybe his advice is good? 

In any event, Hillary needed to end speculation that she might drop out.  As such, her speech today in Shepherdstown, WV (my alma mater), was a wise move.  It sent the signal that she is, in fact, still in this thing.  That will likely stop the speculation that she is about to get out.  For now.




Wednesday, May 07, 2008
McCain Late Night
Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 12:13 PM
McCain is scheduled to appear on Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show" this evening.




Wednesday, May 07, 2008
The Hillary "Fight On" Acid Test
Posted by: Carol Platt Liebau at 11:43 AM
There's almost no way Hillary Clinton can capture the Democratic nomination.  What's more, she's in debt, and as Jonathan pointed out below, she's lending herself millions.  Party bigwigs are going to start calling more loudly for her withdrawal.

So will she get out?  Any rational person would.  But don't count on it.  Why?  Because she's fighting for a cause bigger than herself -- as the Clintons always do (remember when  Bill's rationale for fighting his impeachment for perjury was "defending the Constitution"?).  She's fighting to "save" the Democratic Party from a candidate who, in the Clintons' view, can't win.  So even if the odds just got longer, isn't the cause still just?

If Hillary gets out now, it will be clear that her grandiose justification for splitting the Democratic Party and running up Barack's negatives was nothing more than yet another Clintonian attempt to disguise selfishness at the expense of party well-being -- just like in the '90's.

So which is it?  Is the Democratic Party worth "saving" enough for Hillary to fight on despite the mounting debt (and the mounting intra-party criticism), or is she willing, by dropping out, implicitly to admit that was nothing but an excuse all along? 




Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Huck Still Winning Votes ...
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 11:09 AM
Mike Huckabee continues to win-over voters -- even though he has withdrawn from the race.  As Jonathan Martin notes, Huck did quite well last night in NC:
"... that Huck is still drawing votes this far removed from having dropped out of the race is a reminder of his lingering appeal among Christian conservatives.  He got 12% of the vote statewide in Carolina, but out in Billy Graham country near the Tennessee border he was well into the teens in county after county.

Do these folks know Huck has withdrawn?   Are they just voting for him to register their support for a fellow believer?  


Tags: Veep   huckabee   huck



Wednesday, May 07, 2008
McGovern Urges Clinton to Get Out
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:55 AM
MSNBC's reporting it, though I can't find a story link yet.

Here's one. The former supporters begin to find their way to the door.





Wednesday, May 07, 2008
HuffPo Goes After Laura Bush for Answering Questions at Press Conference
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:55 AM

Laura Bush held a press conference two days ago, in which she addressed the disaster in Burma. After she had talked about that for a few minutes, the press asked her about her daughter Jenna's upcoming wedding this Saturday in Crawford, Texas.

And, can you believe it? Laura had the temerity to entertain their questions! The Huffington Post objects to the "insensitivity:"

Laura Bush Discusses Daughter's Wedding During Myanmar Press Conference

MSNBC never changed the chyron from "First Lady talks about deadly cyclone in Myanmar," so it made for an awkward visual, but that's not exactly Laura's fault. She didn't even venture near the subject until the press mentioned it.

I think the Bush family has handled this wedding well. It's been low-key, with very few details of Jenna's dress or favors or arrangements coming out. I think it's better they held it in Crawford instead of the White House, which would have been a predictable opening for obnoxious Lefties to complain about the Bush family's insensitivity in wartime. Having it in Crawford gives it a family feeling instead of a political one.

In fact, now that I think of it, the only place I have read details about the wedding on a regular basis has been Huffington Post, where there have been no fewer than six posts about the impending nuptials over the past couple months, all with the implication that Jenna should just skip it altogether.

Get over it, HuffPo. They're about the only people who care about this wedding, evidently, and it's clear they think the fact Jenna's even celebrating her nuptials is "insensitive."

Congrats, Jenna!





Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Will Dem Fissures Doom Obama?
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 10:20 AM

Now that Obama has become the presumed presumed Democratic nominee, it is fair to ask whether or not he will be able to consolidate the Democratic Party. 

Jake Tapper's "To-Do List for Hillary Clinton" notes that her 5th priority is to: 
"Point to ugly exit poll data from Indiana showing 50% of Clinton supporters say they will not vote for Obama in the Fall.”
While it is unlikely this argument will be enough to persuade superdelegates to abandon Obama, Clinton's argument is a legitimate one.

The Washington Post also echoes the problem today, noting that
,  
"Fewer than half of Clinton voters in both states said they would support Obama over McCain in the general election should that be the matchup. More than half of those backing Obama said they would be unhappy with Clinton as the party's standard-bearer."

... I don't honestly believe that half of Clinton voters will vote for McCain.  However, if 10 percent of Clinton voters stay home -- a more realistic possibility -- McCain probably wins.  As you can see, this is a real problem for Obama ...






Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Comeback of the Campaign
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:10 AM

Whatever you think about the claim that the McCains didn't vote Bush in 2000, this is a doozy of a push-back, from McCain aide Mark Salter on Arianna Huffington's story:
"Why would she make something up? Because she's a flake, and a poser, and an attention-seeking diva. And that's on the record."
Awesome.

Mark Steyn on the dust-up:
I'd be more impressed by this "straight talk" if it wasn't just as obvious in July 2000 that Arianna was "a flake, and a poser, and an attention seeking diva", when Senator McCain agreed to appear as the keynote speaker at her flaky attention-seeking posers' "shadow convention" (shadowing the GOP one, that is).
The LAT claims to find another witness to the Cindy McCain denial of Bush:
Another woman who attended the 2001 dinner said Tuesday that Cindy McCain had told her she could not bring herself to vote for Bush. The source said she did not want to be identified, so as not to alienate the McCains.
Sounds unlikely to me. John McCain's too friendly with the left sometimes, but he's no out-and-out Chafee.





Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Clinton Is Spending Her Own Money Now
Posted by: Jonathan Garthwaite at 9:56 AM
A campaign aide says Hillary Rodham Clinton lent herself $6.4 million in the past month.





Wednesday, May 07, 2008
The Big Kahuna
Posted by: John Campbell at 9:00 AM

In the next week or two, the Senate will consider S. 27 the San Joaquin River Restoration Settlement Act.  This bill has been pushed by environmentalist extremists and would “settle” a 20 year old lawsuit that they’ve pursued against the federal government, in order to restore the salmon population of the San Joaquin River.  The best part of this bill is that the targeted area of water that this bill would help has been dry for the better part of 70 years.

This bill all by itself is outrageous, but thanks to Congressman Devin Nunes (R-CA), it has come to light that Democrats are planning to sneak in a massive earmark and “airdrop” it into this bill. The earmark will spend $1.1 billion in an attempt to put salmon into a river that has run dry.  The threshold for success is very small.  According to the settlement, if only 500 fish return, the project will be deemed successful. 

If you do the math, that makes each fish worth $2.2 million dollars.

Even for someone from Orange County $2.2 million is a lot for a fish.






Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Is it Over?
Posted by: Matt Lewis at 8:50 AM

Hillary's close call in Indiana means she is just barely alive.  She certainly didn't win the expectations game this time around.  This, of course, begs the question:  Is it over, yet?

I think there's about a 30 percent chance she will get out of the race this week. 

A more likely option is that she will mount a pro-forma campaign -- win West Virginia and Kentucky -- and then get out on a positive note.  This scenario may help cement her status as the presumptive nominee next time around (depending on how things pan out in the general election).

The idea that she will mount a serious attempt to "steal" the election from Obama, via superdelegates, is sadly becoming less and less realistic.




Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Hillary Survives But...
Posted by: Amanda Carpenter at 8:18 AM
MSNBC's Tim Russert says: "We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be - and no one's going to dispute it, Keith. Sometimes in campaigns, the candidate is the last to recognize the best timing. It's very much like being on life support: Once they start removing the systems, you really have no choice."

The NY Post is calling her "TOAST," the NYT says her options are "dwindling" and Politico's Roger Simon is speculating she may try for the nomination again in 2012, run for Governor of New York in 2010 or try to become Senate Majority Leader.











Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Hillary Survives Late Night
Posted by: Jonathan Garthwaite at 1:15 AM
Lake County -- the closest county to Chicago -- has finally counted its votes and it hasn't provided enough of a margin for Obama to help him carry the state.   Hillary survived.  But the narrow victory won't give her much breathing room.

It will be interesting to see if there is any superdelegate movement on Wednesday.

1:20am for a primary.   Of course it took this long.  It's 2008.  We should be expecting nights like this by now.






Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Hold Up: Obama May Win Indiana?
Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 11:55 PM

Momentum means nothing in this campaign. It never has. Sheesh.

Something strange is going on in Lake County, where the totals reporting is very slow. The earliest numbers from there, 28 percent reporting, show that Obama is winning by 74-25. If the margin holds in Lake County, according to Karl Rove, Obama could steal Indiana out from under her late tonight.

Could this early morning really be the end of the never-ending primary?

Regardless of the Indiana outcome, the pressure for Hillary to get out of this race is going to be tremendous for the rest of this week. I think it's pretty much a matter of how quickly this thing ends, now, not whether it will end before Denver.

Barone assessing Lake County's reporting: "If indeed we're not dealing with votes that were manufactured by something other than the volition of individual voters." Mmm-hmm. It does sound rather odd.




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