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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Let the Lawyers Sort it Out ...

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 10:58 AM

I've already written that I think Mitt Romney won on the issue of a Line Item Veto.

However, as Dean noted, his answer on the question of Congressional authorization was very, very lame:

CHRIS MATTHEWS: “Governor Romney, that raises the question, if you were president of the United States, would you need to go to Congress to get authorization to take military action against Iran's nuclear facilities?”

ROMNEY: “You sit down with your attorneys and tell you want you have to do, but obviously the president of the United States has to do what's in the best interest of the United States to protect us against a potential threat. The president did that as he was planning on moving into Iraq and received the authorization of Congress...”

MATTHEWS: “Did he need it?”

ROMNEY: “You know, we're going to let the lawyers sort out what he needed to do and what he didn't need to do. But, certainly, what you want to do is to have the agreement of all the people -- leadership of our government as well as our friends around the world where those circumstances are available.”

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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Identity Crisis on the Right

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 10:44 AM

As everyone knows, conservatives are currently undergoing an identity crisis. And because of Iraq, foreign affairs has a lot to do with the dichotomy. Generally speaking, there are two fundamental competing arguments among conservatives these days. They are as follows:

1. It is our moral duty to intervene internationally, and help people who are staving or oppressed, vs.

2. It is unreasonable to expect people who have never known Democracy to suddenly become "civilized". As such, ousting a brutal dictator -- unless it directly benefits our national interest -- is a fool's errand ...

Regardless of where you stand on this issue, Michael Gerson's op-ed in todays WaPost is thought-provoking ...

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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Whoopi Said Whaaaaat?

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:14 AM

You'll really have to see if to believe it.

Astounding. "The View" continues to surprise.

Tags: view whoopi

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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

The Pro-Lifers for Hillary Campaign Continues

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 10:07 AM

More from the Department of Counterproductive Idiocy:

"As horrifying as it seems, Hillary Clinton would be a better president for the Pro-Life movement than Rudy Giuliani. Therefore our mission is simple; deny Giuliani the Republican nomination. Failing that, we must deny him the White House at all costs – even if it means Hillary becomes President." Randall Terry, Founder, Operation Rescue.

And, in case you missed this, here's Hannity trying to convince Dobson not to elect Hillary.

Tags: hillary randall Dobson terry

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Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Thoughts on the Debate

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 9:18 AM

So who won yesterday's debate?

Any time you have 9 or so candidates, there is likely not to be a winner (that's one of the reasons we need to start thinning the herd).

I think that by doing merely "okay", Fred Thompson came away a sort of winner. During yesterday morning's blogger conference call, Thompson's campaign manager Bill Lacy said Thompson's goal was not to win, but to establish credibility. He also told us that Thompson was good at preparing for events. Both of these points may have contributed to helping Thompson avoid a major gaff, which would likely have derailed his campaign. Luckily for Thompson, he knew who the Prime Minister of Canada is ...

Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani both did well. But if the goal of a GOP debate is to convince conservatives to support you, I've got to give the edge to Mitt Romney. Without a doubt, the most interesting and heated exchange had to do with the Line Item Veto. Giuliani argued that the Line Item Veto was unconstitutional, but it strikes me that it is unconstitutional merely because the Supreme Court Justices who ruled on it in the 90s said that it was unconstitutional. There have been many times in history when the Supreme Court has reversed itself, and this may ultimately be one of those issues. In this case, as in Roe vs. Wade, the Supreme Court overruled the will of Congress. Still, I must remind myself that arguing over the Line Item Veto is inside baseball; the kind of stuff talked about only by the chattering classes.

Mike Huckabee continued to go down the road of class warfare, pitting workers against CEO's and hedge-funds. While this may score him some points in Iowa, it also may end up costing him a VP nod.

Tags: Thompson huckabee Romney Rudy

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Presenting...LOLdebatez

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 4:20 PM

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Chris Matthews is moderating the 4 p.m. (ouch!) debate on CNBC, which is on as we speak (and in which Maria Baritromo is showing him up in more ways than one).

Because there are so many debates, I struggle with ways to make the coverage thereof--how shall I say?--interesting. So, Townhall super-new-employee Kevin is helping me out with his Photoshop skills as we recreate LOLcatz for presidential candidates. If you're not familiar with the Internet phenomenon, here's the Wikipedia entry.

We'll try to have a few more up for you throughout the debate, recreating the conversation as faithfully as possible using sentence fragments and funny pictures. Because that's journalism, blog-style.

The Romney/Rudy fight-- advantage Rudy? Allah has the video, so you can decide for yourself.

Is Rudy's team ruling the spin? Or, is it Team Thompson?

Giuliani lands another 9/11 punch on Paul. The move lost a lot of its punch the second time over, but fair game. Highlights just how differently Paul thinks about threats and attacks and security than anyone else on the stage.

Giuliani suckerpunches Ron Paul for saying we've never had an imminent attack: "I wonder where he was on September 11th." This time around, it seems a little less powerful. Ron Paul insists that was a strike on U.S. interests here, instead of overseas. Rudy points it was planned on Afghanistan.

Video, here.

Stephen Green likes Fred's AMT answer, as did I (although I heard a lot of it Friday):

2:42pm Finally, a question about the AMT! Fred T says, "we shouldn't confuse the wealth of government with the wealth of the nation." In other words, ditch the AMT (or maybe bracket for inflation), and let people keep their money. Amen, brother. And his delivery was the best he's done so far.

Ouch:

My Romney guy, who predicted that Law and Order actor Fred Thompson would excel at the debate because he's only being asked for short, rehearsed answers, says, "I was wrong. He can flub one minute answers."

For the record, I think Fred's not great, but fine tonight. That may be all he needs, especially given the cheap shot Chris Matthews took at him after his answer on government intervening in the Chrysler labor dispute.

Fred first said "no" and stopped, and Maria prompted him with "why?" When Fred finished, Chris said "took a long time, you should have just stopped with 'no.'" Fred should have slapped him harder than he did, but I think he said, "who asked your opinion, Chris?," which should earn him some points.

Video, here.

A couple nice closers for Fred. He parries a blatantly set-up (but still kinda funny) Mitt joke about Thompson with "and here I thought I was the best actor out here." (Ace has the full Mitt joke, which is funny.) He also answered a criticism about getting into the race late with "it was getting kind of boring without me." He had the crowd going at the end, there.

Geraghty gathers the closing funnies:

Huckabee on the airlines: “We have Jetsons technology in the cockpit, and Flintstones technology in the air traffic control.”

McCain: “France is very helpful. It just goes to show, if you live long enough, you will see everything.”

Rudy: “If we institute HillaryCare, there will be no place left for Canadians to get health care.”

Fred Thompson: “I’ve been watching these debates, I’ve gotta admit, it was getting a little boring without me.”

Huckabee's answer on S-CHIP covered a thousand bases, was realistic about politics while being obviously empathetic toward people with health care issues. He strikes a balance that many Republicans have trouble striking when talking about the economic dangers of social programs. He really is a fine communicator. I wish he weren't so nanny-statish on a few issues, but I'm glad to have him on our side when he's talking fair tax and other issues.

Rudy's still doing well in polls. Is it the rude factor?

Bottom line: Fred was fine, but a little flat. He perked up toward the end, and I think will continue to perk up as he gets more debates under his belt. He needs to attack his answers a little more and fill up the time he's given, but he left people with a couple good laugh lines and good, basic assurances of his free-market conservatism. Probably a win for him, overall.

Rudy was strongest for me. He was optimistic, funny, comfortable talking about these issues. He thrives on the little dust-ups with Romney and Paul, and continues to play presumptive nominee by taking shots at the absent Hillary.

I appreciated McCain's unabashed defense of free trade on a stage with a bunch of hemming and hawing. Well done, informed history lesson for everyone. McCain is generally good in debates, but I'm not convinced this is a comeback for him.

Romney was solid, but he's gonna get hammered on his quote about letting "lawyers" decide whether he goes to Congress about going to war. Too reminiscent of Kerry's "global test" moment.

Update: The Fred team was liveblogging. So bloggy.

Tags: mccain Mitt huckabee 2008 john brownback Paul Romney Rudy Giuliani

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Live Blogging the Debate

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 4:05 PM

5:59 - New line of the night:"... It was getting a little boring without me." - Fred Thompson

5:57 - "If we do Hillarycare ... Canadians will have nowhere to go to get their healthcare." - Rudy

5:56 - Huckabee refers to airlines leaving passengers sitting on planes as, "holding the passengers hostage."

5:55 - Fred Thompson knows who the Prime Minister of Canada is.

5:54 - Romney has the line of the night. He says this debate is like Law and Order because "It seems to go on forever, and Fred Thompson shows up at the end."

5:52 - Finally, some economic meat: Romney wants to take out section 404 of Sarbanes-Oxley.

5:51 - Rudy stays optimistic. Makes the point that the reason we have an immigration problem is because everyone wants to come here.

5:50 - Will Duncan Hunter support the GOP nominee, no matter what? If we don't nominate a Pro-Life candidate, the "Party of Lincoln" will go away.

5:47 - Ron Paul probably won't support the Republican nominee for president. He mentions George W. Bush's initial promise for a "humble" foreign policy.

5:43 - SCHIP talk - Huckabee says Dems won the political battle, but that it was posturing. Good quote: "I don't trust the government, and I don't trust the insurance companies ... I trust me."

5:40 - Rudy's campaign sends along info linking Romneycare to Hillarycare.

5:39 - Yippie. Lightning round segments coming up!

5:38 - The question right now is about stopping online predators. Isn't this supposed to be about the economy? Rudy does make a good point that we don't need to set up new agencies for this problem, that we should use current agencies.

5:33 - The Giuliani campaign sends along a quote from former Solicitor General Ted Olson -- and other conservative legal scholars -- saying the Clinton Line-Item veto was, in fact, unconstitutional. Romney's campaign sends along their own Line-Item info, including a dissenting opinion from Justice Scalia.

5:31 - Rudy's grandmother was a union member.

5:30 - Chris Matthews cuts off Romney while he's trying to tell a story about his dad...

5:27 - Populist Mike Huckabee says unions will be more important in the future because the average CEO makes 500 times the amount of the average worker. "Unions are the natural result of workers saying, look, I can't go from a 75K a year job to a $15K a year job ..." He also bashes hedge-funds, again.

5:26 - Romney wants to apply "market dynamics" to healthcare. "My plan gets everybody in America insured ... and to do that we say, look, we're going to let states create their own plans ..." - Romney

5:22 - On Bush's trade policy, specifically CAFTA: "The worst vote I ever cast was to give the president fast track." - Tancredo

5:16 - Tancredo has the best answer on how to restore the trust of America: Quit pandering.

5:14 - As predicted, Romney and Rudy are both already going after Hillary.

5:11 - Matthews asks all the candidates how Republicans can win back the voters. Paul says we can't subsidize farmers or ethanol. Huckabee taps into fears that tomorrow may not be better than today. McCain says we've got to restore trust and confidence, but doesn't provide answers for how to do so. Romney, perhaps answering Huckabee and McCain, says we need to be confident and optimistic. Amen!

5:08 - Thompson and Huckabee are now talking about the Andy Griffth show... (I'm a fan, too!)

5:07 - Huckabee on energy: "We once had a president who said, 'let's go to the moon' ...

5:05 - "I wouldn't drill off the coast of Florida, unless the people of Florida wanted to." - McCain.

5:03 - Brownback says we can't be energy independent, but we can be energy secure.   He also likes hybrid cars, tax credits and incentives ...

5:01 - Rudy says being energy independent is a matter of national security. We haven't built a nuclear plant in 30 years ... Says the President needs to treat this "like putting a man on the moon." Good stuff...

4:59 - Rudy disagrees with Paul. that America hasn't faced an immenent attack. Paul responds: "That was 19 thugs, it had nothing to do with a country."

4:57 - Fred Thompson says that if it's a close call, a president should go to Congress. That's because in a long war, you'll need the support of the American people. (Good point).

4:55 - "You're not allowed to go to war without a declaration of war" ... "this is just war propoganda" ... - Ron Paul (Who gets applause)

4:54 - Hunter makes a good point that, in this modern technological time, a President can't wait for Congressional approval if "the target is fleeting."

4:51 - Thompson's answer on WMDs is good. He is, at least, establishing competence. On this issue, he seems to be in the moment -- not just spouting generalities.

4:49 - Brownback says he voted for war to stop terrorism and WMDs. He gets applause for saying the military has done an excellent job. He also plugs is plan (with Joe Biden) for 3 separate states.

4:47 - Ron Paul says we wouldn't have gone to war if we weren't so dependent on oil, though he says that argument is "mercantilistic." He adds: "We're going broke, we have this huge deficit, we're spending a trillion dollars maintaining our empire over seas ..."

4:44 - On Break: The most important exchange, so far, has been the Line Item veto dispute between Rudy and Romney. It's a bit inside baseball, but I think that most conservatives would side with Romney on this one.

4:39 - Message to Fred Thompson -- using the 20s as an example of why we should cut taxes may not be wise. (I know what you're saying, but it's not a smart political argument)...

4:37 - Brownback says he's the only one who as worked in the trade field.

4:36 - "I think Fred's officially left out"- Amanda Carpenter.

4:35 - Rudy's campaign reminds us via email that Cato Institute rated Romney "C" in 2000 for his tax policy.

4:34 - Lighten up, Maria!

4:31 - Good quote: "For me, Michigan is personal. I'm going to go to work for Michigan." - Romney.

4:30 - So far, I think the fact that there are so many candidates has hurt Fred. He would do better if he got to talk more. At this point, I think Romney is winning.

4:26 - McCain proves he gets it: "I think we are in the midst of a revolution that we haven't seen since the Industrial Revolution." He's right. We're not going to get back to the days where you make $20 an hour building cars with a high school education, and can provide for a family. I'm not saying this is the way I want it -- I'm saying this is the world we live in ...

4:25 - The Romney/Giuliani fight is interesting. Like watching the Red Sox play the Yankees. Fred Thompson's questions, by contrast, seem perfunctory. Not bad, but boring. Sort of like watching the Devil Rays ...

4:24 - Rudy points out that in taking the line item veto all the way to the Supreme Court, Rudy has already beat Bill Clinton at something ...

4:22 - Rudy responds: "The line item veto was unconstitutional ... what the heck can you do about that if you're a strict Constitutionalist?"

4:21 - Romney makes a good point about the line item veto. He used it 844 times, he says. Romney also points out that Rudy fought against it all the way to the Supreme Court. This is what he sees as a clear contrast... (I strongly agree with Romney about this).

4:20 - Rudy rests on his record as NY Mayor. "I cut, I think, as many taxes as you possibly could ..."

4:18 - This debate would be better without Tancredo, Brownback and Hunter. (Ron Paul has earned his keep).

4:16 - Who is this moderator/chick Maria Bartiromo. She needs to grow a sense of humor. She is raining on my parade...

4:15 - Fred Thompson responds to Hunter: "Free and fair trade has been good for America."

4:13 - Duncan Hunter makes a good point about outsourcing to China. This is especially concerning when it comes to producing military equipment (such as tanks which used to be made in Michigan). Hunter attacks his opponents who voted for most favored trade status for China. "I would connect up the middle class of America with the Republican Party one more time."

4:11 - Chris Matthews asks Huckabee if a fair tax will hurt the economy by causing people to buy less. This is a typical Keynesian argument, and shows a lack of knowledge on fiscal issues. Sadly, Huckabee goes straight to his populist message that is essentially class warfare.

4:09 - The question is loaded. "Rich people are getting richer, blah, blah, blah, blah." Sadly, McCain answers it. Rudy would have rejected the premise.   He's right about social security and medicare going broke. Go with the Straight Talk!

4:07 - Ron Paul is doing a good job of playing the populist card. I think this will work to a certain degree in Michigan, and other places, where the economy is struggling.   His populist line: "Everybody doesn't suffere equally."

4:06 - Rudy makes me laugh (but nobody else, it seems), by poking fun of his NY Yankees. In response to a Chris Matthews question: "Joe Torre is the best manager in the history of the Yankees ... and he's my friend."

4:05 - Fred stumbles a bit. Romney gets the first laugh with his Jennifer Granholm joke. Let's face it, if it comes to Michigan-specific questions, he wins.

Tags: Thompson hunter Paul Romney Rudy Fred

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

PSA: Weblog Awards

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 3:52 PM

Hey, the Weblog Awards nominations are open, so go forth and nominate!

I'm working on adding some of my favorites to the list now.

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Interview with Giuliani Economist

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 3:18 PM

In preparation for the economic debate, I just had a chance to interview David Malpass, a Rudy surrogate who is also Chief Global Economist of Bear Stearns. Malpass joined the firm in 1993 and is a Senior Managing Director. According to his bio, Malpass: "writes economic and financial studies and discusses financial market conditions with institutional investors. His duties include economic forecasts for the U.S. and major foreign economies, Washington analysis, and global investment themes."

On the question of how important it is to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, Malpass tells me it's "very important from a growth standpoint" because they generate growth. He also added that they need to be permanent because, "having them constantly having to be renewed...creates uncertainty."

When asked what would happen if Hillary were to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, he tells me: "I think a recession would be likely."

On the subprime crisis, he thinks we're only about halfway through it. On interest rate cuts, he believes the Fed was wise to cut interest rates in September, because it showed the Fed was actively working against a recession. However, he doesn't necessarily think more rate cuts are ideal, because the biggest benefit has come from the initial rate cuts.

Regarding the Bush economy versus the Clinton economy, Malpass tells me the economy is sturdier now than at the same point during the Clinton Administration. He notes a stock market crash and recession circa 2000, and says there is no doubt it was a "Clinton recession." The 2003 tax cuts, according to Malpass got us back on track. He believes Clinton gets credit for a good economy because of the timing of his tenure. He came in in '93 as an expansion was underway. Conversely, Bush had a year and a half before the tax cuts spurred the economy.

Regarding social security, he praised the idea of personal accounts, but wouldn't go so far as to tell me he'd advise Giuliani to try to push them as Bush attempted.

On free trade, he tells me there are currently 4 free trade agreements before Congress, and that the Mayor supports all of them. When I remind him the debate is in Michigan, he tells me the Mayor wants to create more manufacturing jobs by growing the economy -- not by blocking imports.

I asked Malpass about the possibility that Giuliani might pick populist Mike Huckabee, a candidate who has been critical of hedge-funds. Malpass refused to bite ...

Rudy's message today, according to Malpass, will be his 12 commitments -- including holding down -- and cutting -- tax rates and reforming the tax code. Regarding spending, Giuliani will stress restoring fiscal discipline and slowing the growth rate of government.

Malpass, of course, also stressed the fact that "Rudy's electable," and that he has the experience to push through these reforms in Washington, just as he did in New York.

Let's Protect U.S. Jobs

Tags: Rudy

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Hangin' With Mr. McCain

Posted by: Mary Katharine Ham at 3:06 PM

My friend E.M. rounds up a multitude of activities available for Michigan Republicans, all in the company of one John McCain.

My favorite? Walk To the Debate From the Hotel With John McCain.

Awesome. Does he jaywalk? This pressing question and more answered today!

Tags: mccain 2008 john

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

If You Haven't Seen it Yet ...

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 2:54 PM

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

It's the Economy, Stupid!

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 1:48 PM

Unlike previous debates, today's focuses on the economy. Here are some things to watch out for ...

Look for Mitt Romney to have a good showing. Based on observation, he's very comfortable talking economic issues. Besides, he had a great warm-up at the Americans for Prosperity event in DC on Friday night. Combine Michigan, his home state, and those economic issues and he could be in his zone … you know that place where Happy Gilmore goes ...

This is also a good chance for candidates to pretend they're already running against Hillary Clinton. As such, expect them to stress the fact that Bill Clinton had nothing to do with the 90s economy. It was perfect business storm -- there was a computer, semiconductor, Internet, cell phone, pharmaceutical cycle -- all at the same time. Clinton didn't create the environment, he just happened to be sitting in the White House when it occurred ...

Tags: Romney

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Thompson's Debate Spinners

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 11:26 AM

The Thompson team sends along this list of surrogates who will be at the Presidential Debate:

Secretary Spencer Abraham, National co-chair, Friends of Fred Thompson

Jack Faris, immediate past President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Federation of Independent Businesses

Rich Galen, Senior Advisor, Friends of Fred Thompson

John McLaughlin, Chief Executive Officer, McLaughlin & Associates

Todd Harris, Communications Director, Friends of Fred Thompson

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Debating Fred

Posted by: Jonathan Garthwaite at 10:31 AM

Thanks to the Cleveland Indians, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Rockies, who quickly dispensed with their rivals, the media landscape is clear for Fred Thompson to finally get in the race. True, he's been giving speeches, blogging, and raising money, but the real fight for the nomination doesn't start until you look your opponents in the eye and tell him -- and the nation -- why you're better than him.

Stay tuned at 4pm when Townhall.com will be covering the debate.

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Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Thompson Manager Bill Lacy Speaks

Posted by: Matt Lewis at 10:13 AM

I'm on a conference call with Bill Lacy, Fred Thompson's campaign manager. These calls are great, as they offer insight into the candidates strategy and message. Here's what I've gleaned ...

Lacy said that tonight won't be about scoring points -- that Thompson could roll up points like the Cowboys or Patriots, but he wouldn't get the credit for it. Instead, Lacy says Thompson will have two primary goals:

1. Look Presidential
2. Sound Substantive

While some have criticized Thompson for not having a reason to run, Lacy pointed out that Thompson has a track record of handing difficult situations. (It seems his "Salt Lake City Olympics" appears to be his role in Watergate -- as well as helping get John Roberts confirmed.)

Regarding Thompson's performance tonight, Lacy pointed out that as a seasoned trial lawyer, Thompson knows how to prepare himself. I'm not sure being a trial lawyer is something to brag about, but the point is well taken; he knows how to prepare for a big event.

Lacy also alluded to the "where were you in '94" question. Obviously, Thompson was part of the Republican Revolution that year, while others (Romney, Rudy, etc.) were distancing themselves from Gingrich and his ilk.

In terms of nuts-and-bolts, Lacy stressed the importance of cash-on-hand, verses money raised. This is an important distinction, and Thompson is lucky his campaign is aware of the pitfalls of spending campaign cash.

Their strategy, it seems is to do well enough in the early states and caucuses -- and then win South Carolina.

As Lacy puts it: "We've got to build a strategic bridge into South Carolina," meaning they have to show enough signs of competitiveness in the early states, to get to South Carolina. In short, they don't have to win early states (though they aren't writing them off, either) -- but they've got to go into South Carolina viewed as still being competitve.

He told me that he does not believe Fred's late entry into the race has caused any negative issues, and may have helped.

Tags: Thompson