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Saturday, June 21, 2008
Wayne Winegarden :: Townhall.com Columnist
"Cap and Trade" Fallacies
by Wayne Winegarden
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Thankfully, cap and trade – aka the Warner-Lieberman “America's Climate Security Act of 2007” – suffered a quick death in the Senate this year.  Cap and trade is an inferior, anti-growth, environmental policy that imposes significant costs on our economy and people’s lives.  Cap and trade allows Congress to pass a huge tax increase while never formally voting to do so.  The large tax increase will diminish our overall economic vitality and reduce everyone’s welfare.

Unfortunately, like a horror movie villain that keeps rising from the dead, the death of cap and trade is only temporary because cap and trade regulation offers a convenient solution for the political class.  Like most political solutions the promise of all benefits and no costs is too good to be true.  

While we are still in the shadow of “cap and trade’s death”, it is worthwhile to evaluate the 4 major fallacies proponents of cap and trade perpetuate in order to set the record straight.

Fallacy #1: Cap and Trade is a free market solution: If implemented, cap and trade would set an aggregate limit (a cap) to the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) industries could emit. If a holder of GHG emission rights emits GHGs below his allocation level, he could sell some of his rights to someone who is above his emission limit.  The trading of emission credits serves as the basis that the regulation is a free market solution. 


Cap and trade regulations are not a free market solution – it is just the opposite.  Cap and trade gives the government the right to determine the total amount of GHGs emitted by the U.S economy.  Over 86% of our current energy needs are provided by GHG emitting sources; and, our reliance on these sources (e.g. oil and coal) will continue for the foreseeable future. 

Giving the government the power to set total GHG emissions is giving the government the power to determine the economy’s use of energy.  Since energy use is central to our entire free market economy cap and trade takes a central aspect of our free market economy and brings it under direct control of the government. 

Fallacy #2: Cap and Trade provides incentives for alternative energy technologies: The incentives to create alternative energy technologies exist with or without cap and trade regulation.  These incentives vary from the economic (profit) to the non-economic (values).  Cap and trade does not change the incentives.  But, it can distort the process, and due to the law of unintended consequences, may even make the situation worse. 

Take the ethanol case study.  Whether it was for reasons of national security or global warming, the federal government decided to encourage ethanol production.  The result has been disastrous.  Ethanol’s benefit to the environment is now questionable, and the huge diversion of crops from “foods to fuels” is exacerbating a serious international food crisis.  Proponents did not consider such effects when deciding to promote ethanol.  Lack of foresight does not stop the law of unintended consequences, however.

Fallacy #3: Cap and Trade provides resources to invest in alternative energy technologies: In order to implement a cap and trade regulation, the rights to emit GHGs must be distributed.  These rights can be given away for free by the government, in which the beneficiaries receive a very valuable gift from the government.  Or, the rights can be sold to the GHG emitters, typically through auction.  If the government auctions the right to emit GHG emissions, the public sector will receive a huge windfall of revenues estimated in the trillions of dollars.  Plans to spend this money abound.  Investing in alternative energy technologies is one of the oft-cited uses for the new found spending power.

Once again, the facts tell a different story.  The ethanol disaster is not unique: history is replete with failed technology predictions.  Hobbling the private sector by transferring a substantial amount of resources to the public sector will not foster technological innovation.  Instead, it empowers the government to choose which prospective alternative energy technologies should be supported.  We are then betting our energy future on the wisdom and knowledge of the energy scientists on Capitol Hill. 

Global warming should not be used as an excuse to increase the size of government.  The most assured means to obtain effective alternative energy technologies is to allow the private sector to continually experiment (and often fail) with different ideas. 

Fallacy #4: Cap and Trade Regulation will generate economic growth:  The final fallacy is, perhaps, attracting the most attention.  Proponents claim, due to fallacies 1 – 3, that cap and trade will instantaneously create thousands of new green jobs.  Our economy will flourish as we invent ourselves out of the current energy dilemma.  The belief that we can impose a mandate on our economy to use less energy and, somehow, that economic growth will accelerate as a result is a fantasy, pure and simple. 

Capitalism is a process of creative destruction – Henry Ford put some small automobile manufacturers out of business while he was revolutionizing the automobile industry and creating millions of new jobs on net.  Unlike Henry Ford, cap and trade does not create anything.  The incentives to create the alternative technologies already exist – as do investors who will willingly risk their money if they believe the project is viable.  What cap and trade adds is a prohibition to use our current energy resources while these new technologies are being tested.  Such a restriction is not growth enhancing.

As debunking the fallacies indicate, cap and trade regulation is bad public policy.  For those interested in addressing global warming fears, there are more efficient means to do so that will also safeguard the economy.  As for cap and trade, let’s hope it meets the same fate next year when it returns once again.

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About The Author

Wayne H. Winegarden Ph.D. is a partner in the firm Arduin, Laffer & Moore Econometrics.

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Truth
Check out "Not Evil Just Wrong"--it's fallacy free, un-intimidated truth about global warming.

noteviljustwrong.com

Separating environmentalism from us
I am wondering if there is an enterprising lawyer out there who is prepared to sue to overturn any cap and trade legislation that gets passed using legal precedents for the separation of church and state. This is not an economic issue. This is a religious one.

Environmentalism is a religion. A religion is a set of beliefs derived from faith. Faith is a method of knowledge other than reason.

Environmentalists hold the earth and its non-human contents as the supreme value, a position for which there is no rational argument, and they offer none. Their method of knowledge is faith: They reject all the foundational concepts of scientific reasoning. They reject Occam's razor, they reject the principle of refutability, they reject principles of logic such as onus of proof. They reject the scientific method - including defining the problem (to whom is rising temps a problem? Why? How? What is acceptable? Why?), making logical predictions (predictions vary by several degrees over decades), having successful predictions to substantiate their "hypothesis" (enough said), and even valid testing (copy-cat computer models; little to no physical experimentation).

They have, by any rational standard, an unsubstantiated, arbitrary belief. Using an unsubstantiated, arbitrary belief as a basis for action is an act of faith.

They are trying to impose this item of faith onto the rest of us in violation of the principle of the separation of church and state. I do not know what legal precedents forbid this, but they are out there. It is a question of the will to fight this crap. The fact that dropping temperatures have not stopped them in their quest to end industrialization shows that they are zealots immune to reason and will have to be stopped by legal force.

THE BIG FRAUD
There is more than sufficient evidence to show that Global Warming and Climate Change are a FRAUD. If Wayne Winegarden (The Author of this article) and others who write columns for Town Hall would spend more time researching THE BIG FRUAD, Cap and Trade would be nothing more than a sideline exposing the Marxist in our bloated government. The word needs to get out!

http://www.petitionproject.org/

31,000 + Scientist have signed the following petition. 9,000 + are PhD.

PETITION
We urge the United States government to reject the Global Warming Agreement that was written in Kyoto Japan in December. 1997, and any other similar proposals. The proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology and damage the health and welfare of mankind .

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth' s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth' s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.

I believe Lieberman, McCain, Obama and anyone else who portends to believe in Global Warming is lying to the public. This is just a small fraction of supporting data that substantiates the BIG FRAUD. All one needs to do is look at the Ethanol Boondoggle. Tell me there are not giant paybacks for the politicians that have supported subsidizing this program.

Sue them globull warmers
The answer to the turn around in Britain was a lawsuit .. in court it was proven that Al (the fat one) was lying.. his award winning piece of fiction was full of it.. the gov't of the day (Labour Party)..read DEms is taking it on the chin. Look for the Conservatives (real ones) to have a landside victory over the socialist hoard

Broken Window Economics
The alleged economic stimulus that C&T would provide is "broken window economics." If vandals break a window, yeah, sure, the glazier gets an ecouomic benefit. However, the window's owner loses. If the window's owner's loss is ignored (i.e. treated as an 'externality') then the ignorant can claim a 'net' economic benefit based on the sale & installation of a new windowpane.

Same goes for the alleged economic benefit of "cap & trade." The cost of taking of our right & converting it to a privilege, to be sold or given to selected beneficiaries, by the government ruling elite, is swept under the rug. If it were counted, we'd see a huge net loss instead.

Anyway, if the cap were actually set low enough to achieve the stated goals, there'd be no surplus to trade, anyway. We'd all just freeze & starve. I don't actually think this is about CO2 emissions, but about controlling & extracting $$$ from us. Therefore, watch the cap be set arbitrarily to maximize revenue.

Taxing Our Air
It's come down to this: the Democrats and their environmental wacko cronies have figured out a way to place a tax on AIR. How many carbon credits are you worth?

The "cap and trade" dance
The kids at democrat rallies have a new dance craze, the "cap and trade."

The basic move involves pointing to your left, then your partner looks that direction.
While looking that direction, you pick-pocket their wallet and remove all cash and credit cards.
You partner then looks back at you and thanks you for what you just did.

That's right - not an entertaining dance, only clumsy and stupid.

Nam 65, you're talking old technology

There is no slag in recovering shale oil. There's a new in situ recovery process. Here's a link: http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/oilshale/index.cfm

As to where the ultimate price for oil will end up on the marketplace: I don't know, but it will be less than it would be WITHOUT the shale being utilized, and that's the whole point.

Higher supply equals lesser upward price pressure by demand.

Even using the OLD technology, when I'm paying 5 or 8 or 10 bucks a gallon for gas, I couldn't care less about the slag. You sound like McCain, worrying about some "pristine" wilderness area that maybe 300 people have ever seen. It's a minor problem that can be addressed, but no matter what, there are costs for EVERYTHING in life.

It's funny, but all I ever hear from people who are against recovering our oil supplies is arguments about why we shouldn't do it, with no solutions to the problem ever suggested.

"Don't drill because of blah blah". Okay... then what?

But they never suggest ANYTHING, other than waiting for some mythical alternate that's probably NEVER going to appear.

Enough of that crap.

DonP
They already have tax deductions for all those things. They'll spend the money on more socialism.

Climate Matters Act
As noted above the Dems have introduced this piece of treason. When you read the summary you will see that it is a huge tax increase because 80% of the summary tells us how they plan to spend their windfall profit. It would be more accurate to say that it explains all the votes they want to buy.
They will pay us to insulate our homes, put solar cells on the roof, get more economical cars, create all sorts of green jobs, worker training, assistance to third world countries, attract new companies (that won't have any energy to work with), even pay our medical expenses. Now isn't that nice? With all these give-aways is it likely that there will be an enormous amount of lobbying, payoffs, graft and corruption?
If the bill raises this much revenue you can imagine how much your energy costs will rise to produce that revenue, as will your food and everything else. They must think that we are the stupidist folks around to favor such a thoughtless, destructive bill.

Mandated "freedom"
Just like you cannot "impose" freedom in Iraq, you cannot mandate your way to free markets. It is kind of an oxymoron.

What do you want to bet that like all other government favors - carbon permits will be distributed more to organized lobbies in Washington? This is just the same gigantic corporatism that the Nazis did. If you can't beat 'em - get the government to price your competition out.

CRAIGERS
I will be going for Barr.

BrianR...
"Under your thesis, the oil companies should also, then, turn around and cap all production except for one well, which would be immensly profitable."

I'm sorry,Brian,I have no idea what you are talking about.They can't just "turn around and cap all production except one well".First,Teddy Roosevelt took care of that problem 100 hundred years ago.As long as there is competition we are going to get the best price.

"it would obviously sell at market value, wherever that ended up being."

And where is that "market value" going to be?Ten dollars a gallon? I am no mining or oil engineer,but I don't see this system competing with the oceans of oil under our ground.Nature already partialy refined it

And the slag it would produce? Is that part of the "production costs"? Obviously,yes.Therefor it must be added to the price of a gallon of gas and passed on to the consumer.What is that price? Have you seen any figures? Please inform me.

I first heard of the "Shale Oil" about 30 years ago.Nothing has been done so far.A conspiracy by "BIG OIL"?

Please.


FInally someone on townhall that has a b
FInally someone on townhall that has a brain. Wayne is far more knowledgeable and up on this subject then the vast majority of bobble heads that blog here.

and Vic, these fallacies are extolled by the AGW crowd constantly. You may not have heard of the fraudulent Stern economic report, but it is the Neo-communist greens bible of these economic fallacies.

as for MCNobrain,. yes he is fully on board this scheme to control the worlds economy and every human being on this planet. I will be writing in RON PAUL. I will no longer vote for the lesser of two evils. GW bush killed the republican party and McnoBrain is the final nail in the coffin.

We have a ONE party system and McLame is its poster boy.

Economic growth
If we really want economic growth on steroids AND massive revenue inflows to the Treasury the best solution is to drill, drill, drill for our own oil. The switch from imports to domestic energy will create tens of thousands of good paying industry jobs and the royalty payments from the extracted oil and gas would cause federal and state treasury's to overflow. The royalty revenue can be used to finance the oft-discussed 'Manhattan Project' for alternatives.

Already resurrected
Climate Matters Act

http://www.hillheat.com/articles/2008/06/17/house-democrats -introduce-climate-matters-act

Cap and trade provides
incentives for massive fraud. And few incentives for anything else.

Cap and trade is
all costs with no benefits, no matter how you spin it.

Nam 65, your post doesn't make sense

Under your thesis, the oil companies should also, then, turn around and cap all production except for one well, which would be immensly profitable.

Though true for THAT ONE WELL, it would be a bankruptcy-inducing move for the company as a whole.

Further, Gordon's excellent post was talking about *production costs* of the shale oil; it would obviously sell at market value, wherever that ended up being.

Obviously, the influx of so much oil would have the effect of lowering market prices; and that's a GOOD thing; that's the goal here.

As with any mass-producer, their profit/loss strategy is based on volume rather than small unit sales. That's why they can stay profitable at such small margins.


"Warner-Lieberman's" original name was

"McCain-Liberman", and the "demise" of it proclaimed in this column is very premature.

McCain PROPOSES and ENDORSES it as HIS policy. This isn't going away.

Funny how Winegarden failed to mention that in his column.


Crap and Trade ?

Just the thought of voting for this garbage places McCain on Al Gore's lap.

Not a pretty sight.

Cap & Trade Reality Check
Assuming that anthropogenic carbon accumulation in the atmosphere is driving global temperature, halting global temperature change would require halting anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Therefore, the ultimate carbon cap level is ZERO; and, the ultimate quantity of allowances available to trade is also ZERO.

NOTE: The cap must be GLOBAL.

China is currently the #1 global carbon emitter, at ~22% of total emissions. China's emissions are currently increasing at ~10% per year. Even without compounding, their emissions would double in ~10 years.

No program currently under consideration would result in carbon emissions reductions large enough to offset the increase in China's emissions. Therefore, even the most ambitious (Draconian) program would still permit total global emissions to increase. Therefore, no program currently under consideration is a "solution" to the assumed problem. Go figure!

I gave him a ONE
because:

1. I have never heard any of these "falacies" being promoted by anyone.

2. He left out the primary falacies: That AGW is real and this is a real solution.

3. He left out the original sponsor of this scam bill - McLame.

You Are Correct Wayne, But........
If not before, after the Demos invade the Congress and WH, we will have something akin to the Kyoto treaty, cap and trade, etc. There is no doubt about that. Bush and pals have paved the way for futher degrading and killing of the US. One World Order, North American Union, SPP, etc., all following the pattern laid down by the CFR, Trilaterals, Bilderbergs, IMF, and UN. Did you know that among the voters FOR the climate bill were Warner, McShame was for it, Collins, Dole, Mel Martinez, Snowe, Smith and Sununu? Remember that McShame voted for Ginsburg knowing full well that she was and ACLU-er?

Gorden...
..."Best of all, oil prices will drop almost immediately."

And when it does,shale will no longer be competitive.

There is no substitute for liquified petroleum right out of the ground.All the costs of petroleum are the fault of governments,local,state,national,and imternational.Do you seriously think shale would be any different?

Dream on.

PLENTY of OIL & PRICE DROP in 24 MOS



WE COULD HAVE PLENTY OF OIL WITHIN 24 MOS. & CAUSE A DROP IN GASOLINE PRICES IN A FEW MONTHS.

We have 800 Billion barrels of oil in shale that could be converted and put on the U.S. market within 2 years at $40 per bbl.

That is 3 times the amount of oil Saudia Arabia has. No time need be spent on discovery or drilling. We know where it is, we just have to dig it out.

In addition we have 400 years supply of coal, much of which could be converted and placed on the market also at $40 per bbl.

During WWII, the Germans had no crude oil so they converted coal to gasoline for all their needs. They did it using the Fischer Tropsch Process and were on line in less than 6 months.

South Africa in response to an oil embargo switched to coal and converted it to fuel oil and are still doing it.

The Dems say that we can't drill our way out. We don't have to, we have unlimited quantities of shale oil and coal to mine and convert to gasoline.

Plus it can be in the market in 2 years.

Best of all, oil prices will drop almost immediately.

Once the oil rich countries see what we are doing they will flood the market with oil to get as much money now while the price of oil is excessive.

cap and trade
Under cap and trade, does that mean I can plant trees(commodity)and use this to offset my income tax..Just think we could eliminate taxes and in doing so...save the world

On global warming, it’s McCain v. GOP

On global warming, it’s McCain v. GOP
Does this help or hurt McCain in 08?

Politico-John McCain’s tempestuous relationship with his own party will be on full display when the Senate dives into a major global warming debate next week.

The question facing Senate Republicans: Are they ready to embrace their presidential nominee’s more liberal ideas for climate change ideas like a cap-and-trade system, or will they stick to the conservative, hands-off approach to global warming backed by President Bush?

It’s a debate that may very well divide Senate Republicans and show voters yet another fissure in an already beleaguered party. Democrats don’t seem eager to offer a smooth path toward any bipartisan compromise that would give McCain political cover on the issue, and a key procedural vote has already been scheduled for June 2.

read more

http://controlcongress.com/uncategorized/on-global-warming- its-mccain-v-gop

New Schools

ANYONE, Please tell me where we can go, on-line, while there is still time, to relearn the old skills of Farrier, Cooper, Wainwright, Hostler, subsistance gleaning, trapping, et al.

The way the commie dem RINO coalition is taking our Country, we will soon need all these skills again.

Rats
(and mice)

Fallacy 6.02X10^23
CO2 causes global warming. If this were true, CO2 levels would rise before temperatures. However, the data show that those two phenomena happen in the opposite order, i.e. temps go up then CO2 follows. With even my limited knowledge of biochemistry, I understand that CO2 is a byproduct of respiration, a chemical process that speeds up as temperatures increase. Also, the idea that CO2 is deleterious is one that not even Colleridge, in his deepest opium induced delirium could invent. Quite to the contrary, CO2 is necessary to support an underappreciated natural method of catbon sequestration called photosynthesis. Study climate history and a little biology and you will find that the entire global warming scam is nothing but an enormous fallacy.

Cap and trade is a scam
Lieberman-Warner is the same as the Kyoto Protocols, but the target CO2 reductions are much more severe. In Europe, and the rest of the world, Kyoto has been a miserable failure because governments cannot allocate allowances fairly, and, if there are few operations who can sell unused allowances, the carbon traders move in with fraudulent programs.

Besides, there is not one shred of evidence that reducing man's emissions will change the atmosphere's concentration because the oceans release CO2, and the forests consume it.

And, there is no correlation in the 20th century with CO2 and temperature.

Why are we doing this?

Scam-o-Rama













c





























C&T is another version of three card monte. It's sole purpose is to line the pockets of dilletantes like Algore while forcing those of us plebians to live a medieval lifestyle while they enjoy the lap of luxury.













Fallacy #5:
Human activity is warming the Earth.

It is not. In fact, as aggregate worldwide GHG emissions have increased over the last ten years, the Earth's temperature has fallen slightly. The Earth has always experienced periods of natural warming and cooling, as well as natural changes in the different climates that exist in various areas.

Try as we might, we just haven't been able to counteract the natural cooling cycle we're in.
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