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Saturday, September 02, 2006
Larry Kudlow :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Dems Never Learn
by Larry Kudlow
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The August jobs report should put to rest any fears that the economy is burning out. Following upwardly revised increases for June (134,000) and July (121,000), companies added 128,000 nonfarm payrolls last month. Meanwhile, the all-important but rarely mentioned household survey of people working gained by 250,000, sending the unemployment rate back to 4.7 percent from the July reading of 4.8 percent.

The cult of the bear, fussing about a housing-related recession, has once more been proven wrong.

When you step back from the short-term ups and downs of the monthly data, what you see is a return to normal jobs growth. This follows a brief lull earlier in the decade, caused by a shallow recession and a series of adverse economic shocks: a tech bubble that popped, terrorist bombings, war, and an unusual spate of corporate malfeasance.

Long-term jobs growth has moved to an all-time high of 145 million in the household survey and 136 million in nonfarm payrolls. Both measures are rising at about 1.5 percent, the average for jobs growth dating back to 1995. As for unemployment, at 4.7 percent it is well below the 5.1 percent long-run rate.

This suggests we are near full employment and that the economy is operating close to its full potential to grow. It’s still the greatest story never told.

In a speech last week, Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke was bullish on the outlook for productivity, a vital economic stimulant. He cited rapid technological advances as a key driver in the new economy, noting that productivity gains have spread from information technology to other major sectors such as retail, financial services, and manufacturing -- all heavy users of technology.

Nonfarm productivity has increased an average 2.5 percent annually for ten years. Labor force participation has been growing slightly better than 1 percent annually. Putting the two together, you get a 3.5 percent rate of potential economic growth. The latest GDP report shows 3.6 percent growth over the past year, down slightly from the near 4 percent pace of the past three years.

Bernanke also noted that while Japan and Europe have access to the same technology we do, they have grown at a much slower pace. The principal reason for the gap? Economic policy. Bernanke outlined the U.S. edge in terms of deregulated labor markets, greater competition, lower barriers to entry for new firms, more sophisticated capital markets, and the enlarged role of research universities in fostering economic-empowering innovations.

A serious omission from Bernanke’s list, however, was tax policy. Total marginal tax rates for the U.S. workforce are substantially lower than in Europe and Japan. In particular, the 15 percent tax rate on investment (capital gains and dividends) put in place by President Bush (following President Clinton’s cap-gains tax cut from 28 percent to 20 percent) has given tremendous torque to productivity, job creation, and economic growth.

Capital formation is the key to worker productivity and consumer prosperity. Visionary entrepreneurs, those who discover new technologies or innovate those that exist, must be financed with capital. In the longer term, capital-induced productivity increases lead to greater wage gains and enhanced consumer spending power.

This is precisely what separates the men from the boys in the world economy.

Despite all this, the economic Left is rebelling against the Bush prosperity. Along with articles in the New York Times and Washington Post, the Economic Policy Institute released a Labor Day study complaining that while productivity has increased 33 percent over ten years, real wages have declined since 2000.

But this neglects a broader measure called total compensation, which includes tax-free retirement and health benefits. Across the 2000-05 period, inflation-adjusted total compensation has increased 13.1 percent, and over ten years has advanced 31.8 percent, in line with the productivity rise. That’s a bright picture.

It’s okay to have a pessimistic point of view. But it’s not okay to cherry pick data in order to reveal a worst-case Bush-bashing scenario. It’s equally pathetic when the class warriors on the Democratic left can only carp about one alternative proposal: raise taxes on the rich.

This political loser has relegated the Democratic party to secondary status for twenty-five years. Just take a look at the exit polls from the 2004 election. President Bush carried 49 percent of those earning between $30,000 and $50,000, 56 percent of the $50,000 to $75,000 earners, and 55 percent of the $75,000 to $100,000 earners. Meanwhile, 41 percent said Bush’s tax cuts were good for the economy, as opposed to 32 percent who said they were bad.

Tax cuts are a winner. They throw off benefits across the board: capital formation, profitable business, job gains, wage increases, and consumer spending power.

You’d think the Dems would learn. But they never do.

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About The Author

Lawrence Kudlow is host of CNBC's Kudlow & Company

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Economic Left
In human history, never have so many been so blessed with material wealth as Americans in 2006. The "economic Left" (great label, Larry) are perennially upset that lower tax rates are proven time and again to stimulate wealth and job creation. Economic Leftists want the governed to believe that the State is the source of prosperity, and the State alone has the wisdom to fairly allocate (redistribute) wealth. It's the same old same old Marxist religion of envy that no amount of evidence can shake.

It just goes to show that some people can never appreciate the blessings they enjoy.

you've got to be kidding
so tanabear searches and searches and finally finds his pile of pooh in the woods...very impressive.
except for one thing, last year the poverty rate did NOT increase. it actually decreased a bit.
of course, if our country would control the flow of illegal immigration, the poverty rate might have been decreasing for several years during this very healthy economy.
and what is your solution to this problem you have discovered, mr bear? let me guess...RAISE TAXES on the productive to give to the unproductive. sounds like a perfectly Democratic resolution. sorry, i shouldn't put words in your mouth.

Poverty rate???
Who besides you tanabear says the poverty rate has gone up? I haven't seen any announcements on that. Could it be just in your mind or hopes tanabear?

And cdor, you are absolutely right about the unchecked illegal aliens being responsible for the bulk of poverty. It all started under Clinton when he encouraged aliens to cross our borders in hopes they would vote Democrat (illegally and often, of course.)

Enjoy the fruits of tax reductions.

The Socialist-Democrats . . .
continue to beat the dead horse of a horrible economy.

The S-D's never met an economy they liked (unless a Democrat was in the White House).

Tanabear's post reflects the S-D's idea that any Republican economy is a bad economy, regardless of the facts.

Free-market capitalism has allowed the USA to become the greatest, most productive country in history. The S-D's would destroy that and create a neo-socialist economy which be a self-fulfilling proficy of a bad economy.

Only in America....

... could Tanabear find pessimism in this robust economy.

Never mind that our "poor" own 1.6 automobiles, 2 televisions, a microwave oven and other "luxuries" that the truly poverty-stricken in other nations will never see in their lifetime. And never mind that in many instances, our "poor" have these things because of the redistribution of wealth through taxes... not by being productive participants in the economy.

Thankfully, welfare reform, enacted in the mid-90's and finally signed by Bill Clinton (on the third attempt), has forced many able-bodied citizens to actually work for a living.

TWO SIDES TO EVERY ..
Set of numbers. Economic statics that are released every month are coming from one side of the field, and by the time that they are published these numbers have been adjusted to reflect the predetermined curve that is most favorable. If the Economy is as strong as you report Mr. Kudlow, then why are The Big Three struggling just to stay afloat, having to offer huge discounts on their inventory, encouraging huge numbers of their employees buy outs across the boards just to get them off the books and trying to establish partnerships with foreign automakers? One huge indicator that all is not so rosy as you point out Larry is the fact that President Bush refuses to meet with executives from the General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. I challenge you Mr. Kudlow to interview just one executive from each of the Big Three, and give them the chance to share their side of the story. After your interviewing is complete, we all look forward to re reading your latest thoughts on the condition of the state of the economy. Visit http://www.headsneedtoroll.org and post your views and opinions. Keep in mind the POWER OF THE VOTE.
Heads need To Roll

Libs - economic dunces
Liberalism has been defined by some as emotionalism--the liberal mind is a churning cauldron of emotions, bereft of logical thought. Thus it is not surprising that they are completely incapable of grasping basic economic concepts, which DO require logic and reason.

First, as GnuCar intimated, they have no concept of how wealth is created, believing it to be magically created by and owned by the government. This can be witnessed in idiotic statements like, "tax cuts will cost too much" or describing the fact that wealthier individuals gain more nominal dollars from a tax cut as "giving the rich money out of the pockets of the poor."

Second, they believe that wealth is a static commodity, i.e. an economic "pie" that cannot grow. The wealthy, through luck or malfeasance, have obtained larger "slices", thus shrinking the "slices" of everyone else. It is therefore the role of the government to seize that wealth at the point of a gun and redistribute it to the others whose "slice" was unfairly shrunk.

Third, as Larry Elder has pointed out repeatedly, they do not understand that for the most part, the poor do not stay poor. Except for those unfortunate minorities trapped on the liberal plantation through welfare, most minimum wage earners move up the ranks to middle class over time. I would be willing to bet that except for the trolls, the majority of Townhall readers at one time worked for minimum wage.

Finally, their emotionalism renders them incapable of even understanding basic economic data. Never mind what the numbers say, they hate Bush, therefore the economy under Bush MUST by definition be bad. Unfortunately, their mouthpieces at the MSM have managed to convince a sizeable portion of the population of this Orwellian "good economy is bad" nonsense.

The Big Three
Could it be that the unions have systematically forced such high costs on The Big Three that their hands are tied with respect to using robots to make cars, increasing medical insurance premiums on its workers that more reasonably reflect what the rest of the country is paying, instituting 401K’s for workers instead of only pension plans, and paying someone $40+ an hour to pound a fender in place doesn't make sense either. Job security, in most industries, is a thing of the past...you have to keep up with the times...and the mindset that even if you do a menial job, your incremental salary increases over the years will eventually pay you a wage greatly in excess of your talents and usefulness, should also be a thing of the past. And, let's face it, many foreign cars historically have been made much better than American cars. I have not bought an American made car since 1990, and because of the superior experience I have had with reliability, am not considering changing my purchasing preferences.

The Big Three and its subsidiary industries should be thinking about changing the status-quo…what about making a battery that will last for a substantially longer period of time; what about air-cooled engines; what about lower smog emissions; what about greater gas mileage; what about building in some meaningful reliability so that dealerships will not have to rely on “shop” income to such a great extent. I am not an engineer, and I am sure others will have more and better ideas, but The Big Three must look inward…not outward. Do they have interests in battery manufacturers, and in the companies that make the hoses?

Business plans, methods of operation, re-tooling, future innovations, benefits programs, and personnel management are all things that should be discussed constantly to keep ahead of the curve…if nothing changes, nothing will improve.

Yes and no
hntr admin writes:

why are The Big Three struggling just to stay afloat, having to offer huge discounts on their inventory,
===================
I actually don’t think the economy is that strong but this was a bad choice as an example. The big three aren’t GM, Ford and Chrysler. It soon won’t be GM in number one either. The auto industry is booming, just not those three. They are being passed by Toyota (#2 now) and Honda and Nissan which have passed Chrysler and may pass Ford or have passed them now. They are U.S. auto manufacturers and their sales are booming, without incentives in many cases. One of the largest manufacturing sectors insourcing jobs, is the auto industry. Not only assembly jobs but many parts plants have located in the U.S. in the southern “right to work” states where Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are locating and building new plants every time an old “big three plant closes.”

However, 42% of job growth was tied to housing. Much of the spending was due to equity spending from homes. Now that that market slowed, stopped, or reversed, depending on who you listen to, we have a huge problem. Also, we didn’t reform our 60,000 page tax code and rulings to stop driving business out of America. Remember compliance costs are often 400% to 700% more than the tax they pay and both the tax and cost of collecting it from consumers through business is in the prices we pay.

Homes are now worth less than purchase price in several areas and there is no more equity to borrow in them. The flood of immigrants has held lower wages down and we have a widening wage gap (on Kudlow’s TV program a couple of days ago), we have a rising national debt due to entitlement spending tied to COLA increases which is why we underreport inflation, to keep those increases down. We had a trade surplus with the whole world except, yup, China, still had a big deficit there. China and Japan own a lot of our national debt which has $440 billion interest every year or about $6,000 for a family of four to pay in hidden taxes in the prices we pay (35% of price hidden tax and compliance costs?) We are losing buying power every year. Many foreign economists who don’t have dog huntin’ in our woods, say we are in more trouble than the voters are being told because we don’t want consumer confidence to fall. But, the voters aren’t going to be willing to let our government do what is really needed.

How do we fix it ? Do what Ireland did.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/WorldwideFreedom/bg1945.cfm

Voters won't let us do that though, I don't believe. Too many voters have become socialists.

Illegal Immigrants
I would like to offer what I believe would be a “Common Horse Sense solution to the situation on our Mexican Border.

The number of illegal immigrants working here is taking many jobs that American CAN'T do because they are already taken by those who does not have a right to them.

I realize that it is most impossible to find and deport 12,000,000 illegal immigrants at once. However this is no reason to give all these lawbreakers legal citizenship.

As I am sure you are aware, seventy-five percent of Americans are against making these people legal.

For our President and many of our Law-Makers to support this idea is really hurting our President and our great Republican Party and MOST important the American Citizen as a whole. I follow many blogs on the internet and find this is increasing true.

I believe this would be a much better solution to this problem. First and foremost, our borders must be protected. This is the main complaint against this Administration is that while we are working to help Iraq make their borders secure we seem to be helpless in making our borders secure.

While there has been much talk of hiring more Border Patrolmen, even up eight thousand, I feel this needs not be done. As I see it, this would only add to the price of government which is so large now that the public really cannot afford it.

May I offer this suggestion, use the recourses we already have, namely the National Guard. As I understand it, the purpose of the Guard is to give support where support is needed.

I realize the Guard is under State control so our Federal Government would need to work with the States to get a commitment from them.

However, I truly believe that many States would be willing to co-operate with our Federal government if it was pointed out that this would save the Federal Government many millions of dollars. Even if we could only get twenty-four States to work with us, we could send eight thousand to the border, meaning that each of those twenty-four States would only have to supply one thousand Guard Personnel every three months.

The Federal Government could even offer to pay the wages of the Guard Personnel while on patrol on the U. S. border, thus saving the States of funds they would otherwise pay out. This would in no way place a greater burden on the Federal Government, but would I believe would be a less burden as the Guard Personnel most likely make less than new Border Patrol Personnel would.

Then to deal with the illegal immigrants, leave these people as Law-Breakers so that as they are caught, they can be returned to Mexico.

One way to speed up the capture of these people is to place a bounty on them. Anyone reporting these people would receive this bounty. This would I believe pull in most of these people.

ONE THING, DO NOT CAPTURE AND RELEASE THEM.

Also levy a hefty fine on these Companies that has hired these people depending on the number of illegal immigrants.

This would send a strong message to the Companies that if they hire these people thereby breaking the Law, they will pay.

I truly believe this would curtail the number of Companies that hire these people because they work for cheaper wages.

Also there is much talk about illegal immigrants doing work that the American won’t do. This is nothing but a cop-out. A better statement is, these people are doing work that American can’t do because they are filled by illegal immigrants.

Growth on the back of growing debt.
If it were not for the easy money printing press we would not see what growth we are currently seeing. This recovery has seen much less improvement in jobs and income than previous recoveries. Why? The money has not been used to create new capital spending but spent on operations and consumptin. Alot of the money taken from housing equity have gone to purchase of short term goods and services much of which went outside of the country or put into speculative purchase of housing. The continued high repo rate holds up the stock market and China has funded our debt.

A big chunk of the job growth has been increase in jobs for government, the speculative boom in housing, and the war either military or security here in the US. Little of this spending produces the leverage that pure corporate capital investment brings to an economy. The money managers of Wall Street have actually raised the number for income but most of that is from speculation as well. We have moved from agriculture to industry to manufacturing to service to gambling.

Legal and illegal
Problem: Companies who want to hire legally must pay the minimum wage, which has priced a lot of unskilled American kids out of the job market. Companies (or individuals) who want to get the job done but can't afford (or choose not) to pay the minimum wage, much less the SS and Medicare employer share, will hire anyone under the table and pay in cash.

Solution: Get rid of the minimum wage, along with SS and Medicare (privatizing both), plus exchange the income tax for a consumption tax (not as easy as it sounds, but doable), and the problem melts away over time.

I think I'll expand on this on my blog, so if you want to read more, check it out later by clicking my name above.

immigration
As I am sure you are aware, seventy-five percent of Americans are against making these people legal.
====================
Actually, that is the percent who want the border secured. It is not the number who want those here denied legal status.

Here at the Polling Place that tracks many, many polls, we find this question and response
Quote:
"One proposal would allow undocumented immigrants who have been living and working in the United States for a number of years, and who do not have a criminal record, to start on a path to citizenship by registering that they are in the country, paying a fine, getting fingerprinted, and learning English, among other requirements. Do you support or oppose this, or haven't you heard enough about it to say?"
6/24-27/06
Support--67% Oppose--18% Haven't Heard--12% Unsure--3%
http://pollingreport.com/immigration.htm
==============================

Remember many in politics believe that 100-200 million immigrants (legal or illegal)will be needed over the next couple of decades to save social security and Medicare due to 77 million retiring, job growth and longer lifespans of retirees with most of the 77 million living to an average of 100 and those now 65, living to 92.

I don’t agree with the policy or that it will solve the problem but that still is something many in both parties support. Rather than "reform" social security and Medicare they are going to try and "fix" them like the 21 tax increases for social security were supposed to "fix" it.

modernone writes
modernone writes

The money has not been used to create new capital spending but spent on operations and consumption. A lot of the money taken from housing equity have gone to purchase of short term goods and services much of which went outside of the country or put into speculative purchase of housing. The continued high repo rate holds up the stock market and China has funded our debt.

A big chunk of the job growth has been increase in jobs for government, the speculative boom in housing, and the war either military or security here in the US. Little of this spending produces the leverage that pure corporate capital investment brings to an economy.
==========================
You got it. If we don’t make the reforms like Ireland did that took their 120% national debt to GDP down to 27% while increasing wages from ½ our ave. mfg wage to $1.30 higher than ours, we are doomed and eventually will become a 2nd class. Nation economically. Although many say it will take two decades for China to pass us, (some say a decade) the current “real GDP growth rates” would have them pass us in 5 years.

For more on Ireland’s success see “How Ireland became the Celtic tiger.” It is an article in the topic on “Reforming America.” on the Tree of Liberty Fourm:
http://azrepublicanissues.forumsplace.com/message1945.html

Again, don't count on voters supporting what they did. (hint: they cut taxes on the wealthy and business and the workers benefited with higher wages instead of lower tax rates) Remember, consumers pay the taxes business pays and the compliance costs of those businesses.

What about the CEO wages
being at 430 percent of the wage earners this year, the highest ever at any time in the nation? What about Congress voting itself a raise? What about Boards of Directors heaping platinum parachutes to the business leaders while the poor daily workmen living on a minimum wage that basically doesn't cover living expenses any more? When can the workers vote to increase THEIR wage/WORTH?

Hello! Interview the working class...
Kudlow and the other millionaire pundits and politicians spout off daily about the great economy without, apparently, getting out into the streets and talking with those of us who actually roll up our sleeves and put our hands into something real for a...living? Get a grip on the real world, Kudlow. Jobs lost, job insecurity, retirement insecurity, high cost of living, health care out of control, hidden taxes which offset any tax credit crumbs you Republicans have throw our way - give me a break! I hope to see a political perp walk in November.

Linda writes:
Linda writes:
Hello! Interview the working class...
Kudlow and the other millionaire pundits and politicians spout off daily about the great economy without, apparently, getting out into the streets and talking with those of us who actually roll up our sleeves and put our hands into something real for a...living? Get a grip on the real world, Kudlow. Jobs lost, job insecurity, retirement insecurity, high cost of living, health care out of control, hidden taxes which offset any tax credit crumbs you Republicans have throw our way - give me a break! I hope to see a political perp walk in November.

That is just it. He doesn't and the politicians don't. Neither party is listening and neither party is studying the countries that have made things better for their workers.

However, to be honest, most voters won't support what needs to be done, either.

Gee tanabear I wasn't aware Presidents..
..."reign" in America. By the way they determine who is "living in poverty" retired person living off their investments and savings in a $2 million home, driving $80,000 cars to their beachfront homes live below the "poverty rate."




I also recall changes in how the "poverty rate" was determined during the late '90's.


Don't know who Linda is talking to...
...but my company manufactures parts for automatic textile printers and our industry is booming. In the past three years we have more than quadrupled our output through automation and doubling our shop employees. The machine shop two doors down is booming also. I don't know where you live(maybe the PRC[CA] or taxachusetts) but if you can't find a decent job in the Atlanta area, you ain't looking.
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